A medical volunteer wearing a protective mask and face shield during India's extended lock down on May 6, 2020 in New Delhi, India. (Photo by Yawar Nazir/Getty Images)

South Asia has become the latest pandemic hot spot as coronavirus cases rise at the fastest rate globally. But beyond the dangers of COVID-19, the region faces an increased threat by malign actors, from China to extremist groups, who are poised to take advantage of instability caused by the pandemic.

In a new Hudson report, "Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia," Amb. Husain Haqqani and Dr. Aparna Pande explore the pandemic's effect on South Asia's fragile democratic institutions, societal bonds, and economies. With input from experts on the ground, the report provides a country-by-country look at how governments across South Asia are fighting the virus and the battle for influence by outside actors.

Be sure to also visit our newly redesigned Coronavirus Timeline. Updated daily, this detailed resource meticulously tracks the virus' spread and efforts by the Chinese Communist Party to obfuscate and weaponize information surrounding the pandemic. Next week, tune in as Liselotte Odgaard speaks with U.S. Ambassador Carla Sands on America's role in the Arctic; Lt. Gen H. R. McMaster and Patrick Cronin examine how to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific; and Nate Sibley interviews Senator Bill Cassidy and MP John Penrose on the US-UK fight against illicit finance.

Major Takeaways

Major trends in South Asia's fight against the pandemic, excerpted from "Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia" by Amb. Husain Haqqani and Dr. Aparna Pande.

1. The pandemic is strengthening China’s grip on Pakistan:

The country worst hit by COVID-19 in South Asia is China’s most dependable ally, Pakistan, the second-largest country in the region. A fragile state with a large military, a strong jihadi terrorist presence, and nuclear weapons capability, Pakistan’s many fault lines are likely to be exacerbated by the pandemic and the economic downturn in its aftermath. 

Pakistan relies on its close ties to China to pursue what its generals see as permanent conflict with India. In the aftermath of the ravages of the coronavirus, China-Pakistan relations can be expected to remain close, setting the stage for a new round of competition between China and India for regional preeminence.

2. India stands to gain as businesses shift supply chains out of China:

India, with a large labor force and proximity to China, could become the venue for investors looking to relocate their businesses out of China. As part of its coronavirus relief measures, India’s finance ministry is considering 10-year tax exemptions to companies that set up new factories in labor-intensive industries, while several major states have announced that all new manufacturing plants would be exempt from almost all exiting labor laws for a period of three years.

The Indian government hopes that a combination of geopolitics and internal economic policies will provide Indian industry with the necessary boost to access foreign markets, investment and technology.

3. South Asia's post-pandemic recovery will likely be led by India:

As the largest country in the region, India would ideally be suited to playing a major role in rebuilding its neighborhood because of its central location and large economy. It would be in the U.S. interest to encourage this outcome. India, however, would simultaneously be dealing with a slowing economy, rising social tensions, divisive politics, and insufficient investment in healthcare.

4. India's efforts to deregulate its economy may be set back by COVID-19:

Government relief measures would diminish the prospect of a deregulated Indian economy. Conventional Indian thinking and policy-making has often accepted an enlarged role for government, and socialism remains a buzzword among India’s political circles, even on the right. The situation created by COVID-19 has exacerbated India’s economic downturn. The fear of a return to food poverty for millions has resulted in demands that the government use its extensive food stocks to provide for all.

5. Nepal is being pulled into an India-China rivalry, with China winning:

Rohit Karki of the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance notes that the pandemic will exacerbate the India-China geopolitical rivalry in Nepal, with each country vying to provide aid in an effort to expand strategic influence. COVID-19 could increase China’s leverage over Nepal because both Beijing and the Chinese private sector have provided the mountainous country with medical equipment and material.

6. Pakistan has used the pandemic to advance anti-Western messaging:

Pakistan has become a center for conspiracy theories that accuse the United States and the UK of “creating” the virus as part of biological warfare experiments. Former Pakistani UN ambassador Hussain Haroon has put out a video explaining that the virus was created by the British and the Americans and unleashed on the world.

Zaid Hamid, a pro-military jihadi propagandist, and several Pakistani television anchors and social media personalities have advanced similar conspiracy theories. Even after the pandemic ends, the effects of this propaganda will linger, and Pakistan’s public will remain anti-Western and pro-China.

7. South Asia faces a unique set of challenges during the pandemic:

Many of the countries across South Asia possess similar attributes: a large population, dependence on remittances from migrant laborers, a dependence on trade, and weak healthcare infrastructures. Afghanistan has only twelve working ventilators in the entire country and not enough staff to operate them, and there are not enough doctors, hospitals beds, or health-care workers. According to their Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh has one registered doctor for every 1,581 people, while Rohingya refugee camps are “ripe for disease outbreaks."

Quotes have been edited for length and clarity

Go Deeper: Hudson on South Asia