Dear John,

This week saw the UK sign a (long-awaited) free trade agreement with India, Starmer agree to the broad terms of a tariff deal with the US, and Pope Leo XIV elected as the first American pontiff as white smoke swirled above the Sistine Chapel.  Here to make sense of it all is your Weekend Wire…

US tariff deal

A trade deal between the UK and the US has long been cited as a so-called Brexit benefit. However, what emerged this week following a bombastic VE Day  announcement from the White House - and a somewhat more measured follow-up from Keir Starmer - appeared to do little more than wind back some of Donald Trump’s tariffs on UK metal exports and cars arriving in the US. This was in exchange for increased market access for American ethanol and beef, but with no changes to UK food standards. 

The deal, which will have come as welcome relief for workers at firms including Jaguar Land Rover and British Steel, was confirmed in a call between the two leaders on Thursday evening during the second half of the Arsenal v Paris san Germain game. But senior economist Ben Caswell at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Neisr)  said the agreement would likely have a “very small” impact on UK GDP, but offer a “welcome boost” to business confidence; while Matthew Ryan, from finance firm Ebury, cautioned the package was “far from a full-blown trade agreement” which could still be some years away. No better time, then, for the upcoming summit on May 19, the most consequential since Britain withdrew from the EU…

India free trade deal

On Tuesday, after business secretary Jonathan Reynolds and his Indian counterpart, commerce minister Piyush Goyal, finalised talks last week, the UK and India announced what the government called a “landmark” trade deal. The agreement is expected to add £4.8bn a year to the UK economy by 2040, ministers said. It will cut tariffs, including on scotch whisky, cars and other UK exports, and offer national insurance or social security exemptions to some overseas workers from India and the UK for their first three years in either country.

Campaigners were quick to highlight that - despite being positive - these outcomes still fell well short of the benefits on offer from deepening trade ties with the EU. As demonstrated by independent Frontier Economics research, beneficial goods and services alignment with the EU could spark growth of up to 2.2%, focused on the electorally important Midlands and North of England.

“This deal is no substitute for removing technical barriers to trade with our largest and closest market which can deliver 20 times the economic boost and cut supermarket prices for consumers,” Best for Britain’s chief executive Naomi Smith said.

Election round up

Down under, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese dodged the ‘incumbency curse’ as voters returned him to office in a landslide win for the Labor Party. His political comeback makes him the first Aussie leader in two decades to secure a second term. A record number of women will take their seats in Parliament, including Ali France, who defeated opposition leader Peter Dutton. The centre-right Liberal-National coalition leader, who lost his seat of 24 years, previously had to walk back plans after proposals for an Australian-style DOGE proved unpopular.

In contrast, in Romania, right-wing candidate George Simion topped the first round of the presidential election with 40.96%, ahead of the runoff election on May 18. Simion is opposed to providing military aid to Ukraine and has aligned himself with Trump and Hungarian leader Victor Orban’s nationalist-style policies.

Parish notices

The Catholic-speaking world held its breath this week, as cardinals gathered in the Sistine Chapel to elect the next Pope via secret(ive) ballots and plumes of smoke. The live re-enactment of hit Stanley Tucci vehicle ‘Conclave’ lasted just 24 hours, and resulted in the election of Cardinal Robert Prevost, who will lead the church as Pope Leo XIV. In something of a Robert Harris-style twist, Trump has said he “looks forward” to meeting the new pontiff, a now-Peruvian citizen born in Chicago, who has criticised vice-president JD Vance over US migration policies.

Cringe Column 

This has been your Weekend Wire from Best for Britain. Keep an eye out next week for the European Political Community summit on Friday, in Albania, and catch up on our blog on Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s prescient comments on EU trade. Have a good one.

Jessica Frank-Keyes

Senior Press Officer

Best for Britain