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Looking Back: The Worst Business Cycle Ever For U.S. Manufacturing

by Michael Mandel, Chief Economic Strategist

The 2007-2019 business cycle is now in the books, and even before the pandemic it was objectively terrible for domestic manufacturing. What do we have to do to dig ourselves out, and can policy help?

Economists usually measure business cycles from peak to peak. While the arbiters of business cycles—Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research—just identified February 2020 as the monthly peak, the peak year is clearly 2019. The previous peak was 2007, just before the financial crisis.

Unfortunately, domestic manufacturers basically staggered through the past 12 years, as measured by output, productivity, and employment. Let’s start with output first. As measured by the Federal Reserve’s industrial production index, manufacturing output fell by 1.3% from 2007 to 2019. To put this in perspective, that’s a worse performance than the Great Depression of the 1930s, when factory output actually rose from the 1929 peak to the next peak in 1937.

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Forget the ‘veepstakes’ — Biden should make history with finance picks
by Jason Gold, Managing Director

Should he claim victory in November, Biden has pledged to build a top-notch Cabinet that “will look like the country.” That’s important, as diverse voices produce better policy outcomes for everyone.
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Community Health Centers + COVID-19

by Arielle Kane, Director of Health Care

Funding is an important first step to helping CHCs provide care to the 28 million low-income and disproportionately uninsured patients they see annually. But it’s not the only issue at play.

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The HEROES Act fixes what the CARES Act broke
by Tressa Pankovits, Reinventing America's Schools Project

Conservatives call the House Democrats’ Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act a “gigantic political scam.” Senate Republicans say HEROES, passed by the House on May 15th, is “dead on arrival when it reconvenes. As they negotiate with Democrats, Republicans should think carefully about certain student loan relief provisions in the bill.
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PODCAST: Scoring a Better Future — Getting Facts on Credit Scores & How They Work
Paul Weinstein, Jr., Senior Fellow

Join Paul Weinstein, Jr., Senior Fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., and Joanne Gaskin, Vice President of Scores and Analytics at FICO, for a discussion on the changes FICO has made to its models, and how they may impact credit scores, particularly for millennials and GenZ.
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