Dear John,

One thing is clear from last week’s local elections.

The distrust and disillusionment we’ve warned about for years is beginning to come to a head. And our Prime Minister still won’t see the writing on the wall.

The data from last weeks local election makes it obvious. The two-party system is collapsing, and while that has the potential to be a good thing, First-Past-The-Post elections means that Nigel Farage is set to be the main beneficiary:

• In Runcorn and Helsby, Labour’s 14,700-vote majority was demolished, with a 17% swing to Reform and Labour’s share of the vote down dramatically from 52.9% to 38.7%.

• Reform won 677 of the 1,600 councils it contested, seizing control of eight formerly Conservative strongholds (Kent, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire, West Northamptonshire, and North Northamptonshire) and two formerly Labour-dominated councils (Durham and Doncaster).  

• This is the first time in modern British politics that the Conservatives’ and Labours’ combined share of the vote has fallen below 50%.

All of this has stunning implications for the next General Election. A recent YouGov voting intention poll puts Reform UK on 29%, the highest percentage they’ve achieved to date. It puts Farage in spitting distance of the 33% Labour won just last summer, and that much closer to No 10.

As for Labour’s part, they’re polling at just 22%, eight points behind Reform UK.

Yes – the usual caveats about election polling this far out apply, as always – but it’s worth recognising that putting these percentages into a Parliamentary election model yields terrifying results.

According to researchers at Election Maps UK, who have run that polling data through their model, these numbers could give Reform UK 304 more seats in Parliament for a total of 309. It would all but obliterate the Conservative party, making them Britain’s 5th largest party, behind the SNP.

This is the clearest demonstration to date: despite the fact that over 70% of the British public reject Nigel Farage, he could game this broken electoral system to win a massive, outsized majority.

If we had a proportional system, those who support Farage could get the representation they deserve – but the other 70% of the country would get a proper say, too. No more tactical voting. No more swing-seats. But a democratic coalition to defeat the far-right would enter the realm of possibility.

And that’s just the impact of First-Past-The-Post. There’s also the matter of Farage’s billionaire fundraising drive, soaking up donations from fossil fuel executives and wealthy benefactors in offshore tax havens.

According to the Financial Times, the party is seeking to “take advantage of Britain’s loose funding rules to bolster its coffers.” The very same campaign finance rules we’ve been warning about – and acting in Parliament to fix – for years.

Should Farage find his way to power, the responsibility will lay at the feet of those who could have fixed this broken political system, and failed to do so.

Open Britain and our allies in the sector have been loud and consistent voices for democratic change – not to block Reform UK from winning, but to force Farage to fight fair.

We’ll keep drawing attention to Britain’s broken democracy, showing the public that at the root of so many frustrations people have – the cost of living, climate, social division – is a political system that’s just not fit for the 21st century.

Together, we can prevent the electoral map from looking like the one above. We can make it a true reflection of what Britons actually want from their government – not a charlatan’s protest vote.

Thanks for all of your support,

Matt

Matt Gallagher

Communications Officer

Open Britain Team

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