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Daily News Brief

May 5, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering weekend election results in Australia, Romania, and Singapore, as well as...

  • Israel’s reported plans to expand operations in Gaza

  • An OPEC+ oil output hike

  • TikTok’s penalties in Europe

 
 

Top of the Agenda

Incumbents won victories with wide margins in weekend elections in Australia and Singapore. Voters in both countries sought stability amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade war, analysts said. Center-left Anthony Albanese became the first Australian prime minister to win a second consecutive term in more than twenty years. He and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong also grew their majorities in parliament. Both leaders pledged to defend their countries from international turbulence in their victory speeches. But even as Albanese and Wong cut a contrast to Trump’s leadership style, a self-described “Trumpist” candidate triumphed in the first round of Romania’s presidential election. That followed significant gains by the right-wing populist Reform UK party in United Kingdom (UK) local elections last Thursday.

 

Labor’s turnaround in Australia. As recently as February, the ruling Australian Labor Party lagged behind its rival conservative alliance in polls. But opposition leader Peter Dutton earned comparisons to Trump with his anti-immigrant stance and pledges to slash government bureaucracy. Cost-of-living strains and a housing shortage were other central issues. Dutton lost his own seat in the election, and Labor’s majority in parliament grew from seventy-seven to at least eighty-five seats.

 

Wong’s expanded mandate in Singapore. While the People’s Action Party (PAP) has ruled Singapore for decades, the main opposition party jumped in popularity in the last election in 2020. That prompted uncertainties over how the PAP would fare in Saturday’s vote. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong campaigned on maintaining economic stability amid global turbulence, and the PAP won 65.6 percent of votes—up from 61.2 percent in 2020—CNA reported.


A counterpoint in Romania.
The tack toward incumbents did not occur in Romania, however, where far-right candidate George Simion won the first round of a presidential vote vowing to shake up politics. Simion has called his political group “Trumpist” and said he opposes Western military aid to Ukraine. He won 41 percent of the vote to his closest competitor Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan’s 21 percent; they will face each other in a runoff on May 18.

 
 

“Those parties that appeared close to Trump or just unprepared to resist his aggressive second-term actions and any resulting global chaos hemorrhaged parliamentary seats and public support. In both Singapore and Australia, the losing parties often seemed aimless in defeat.”

—CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick

 

The Brink of Conflict Over Kashmir

Muslims hold signs and flags during a protest against Tuesday's attack near Pahalgam, Kashmir, in Delhi, India, April 25, 2025.

Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive posture towards Pakistan has given him a political boost domestically. He could use a similar approach following the recent Kashmir terrorist attack, CFR’s Steven Honig and Natalie Caloca write for Asia Unbound.

 
 

Across the Globe

Israel’s plans to occupy Gaza. Israel’s security cabinet approved a plan last night to expand its military offensive in Gaza, an unnamed Israeli official told news organizations today. The plans reportedly include capturing all of the territory and remaining there for an unspecified time. The Houthis said that they would repeatedly target Israeli airports in response to Israel’s growing operations in Gaza; Israel vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and Iran after a Houthi rocket landed in the area of Israel’s main international airport yesterday.  

 

OPEC+ output hike. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers said Saturday that they would increase their output by around 411,000 barrels per day next month. This follows a previous decision in April to raise output; since then, prices of the international benchmark Brent crude have fallen around 20 percent. Trump has called for lower oil prices, and is due to visit the Middle East this month. Early today, the price of crude oil was hovering around a four-year low hit in April.

 

Mexico rebuffs U.S. troops. Mexico rejected a proposal by Trump to send U.S. troops across the border to combat drug gangs, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Saturday. She told supporters at an event that “sovereignty is not for sale.” A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson praised bilateral security cooperation but said that Mexico “must do more” to counter gangs and cartels, and that the United States stands ready to help.

 

TikTok’s penalties in Europe. The European Union fined TikTok $600 million for failing to uphold privacy standards while transferring data to China. Meanwhile, Irish authorities said the company failed to disclose where personal data was being sent and ordered it to reverse course. TikTok said its new data storage system “has some of the most stringent data protections anywhere in the industry” and that it “never provided European user data” to Chinese authorities.

 

U.S. defense tech to Ukraine. A U.S.-made Patriot air-defense system currently located in Israel will soon be moved to Ukraine under a deal reached by the Joe Biden administration, unnamed current and former U.S. officials told the New York Times. Talks are also reportedly underway to transfer an additional system from Germany or Greece. The Defense Department said the United States “continues to provide Ukraine” with previously authorized technologies.

 

India, Pakistan impose trade bans. India’s foreign trade office announced on Saturday a ban on imports coming from or transiting through Pakistan as tensions continue to heat up following the killings of Hindu tourists in Kashmir last month. Pakistan followed suit by announcing bans on goods produced in India or goods bound for India from third countries. Pakistan’s ban would not affect goods that were already under contract, Dawn reported.

 

Washington lists Haiti groups as terrorists. The United States added two Haitian gangs to a list of foreign terrorist organizations, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying the move aimed to end “impunity for those supporting violence in Haiti.” He warned that people who transact with the groups may risk being sanctioned. An analyst from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime said the designation would hamper humanitarian work. 

 

Trump threatens film tariffs. The U.S. president yesterday wrote on social media that he had instructed his team to prepare a 100 percent tariff on movies produced overseas. Other countries’ incentives for the film industry constitute a “national security threat,” he wrote. Some of the most-anticipated movies for the U.S. market in the coming weeks were made partly or totally outside of the United States. It was not clear how such tariffs would be calculated.

 
 

What if America Abandons Ukraine?

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaking at the Vatican, April 2025.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

A U.S. retreat from Ukraine could lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin driving a wedge in the transatlantic relationship and undermining the European project, CFR expert Liana Fix and the Catholic University of America’s Michael Kimmage write for Foreign Affairs.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, the board of the UN nuclear watchdog begins a meeting in Vienna

  • Today, Vietnam’s top leader To Lam begins a trip to Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

  • Tomorrow, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney meets with Trump in Washington.

 

What’s at Stake in Romania’s Election

People wave EU and Romanian flags during a pro-EU demonstration in Bucharest, Romania, on March 15, 2025.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

Romania’s rescheduled presidential elections could be a major test for the country’s democracy after last year’s results were annulled due to charges of Russian interference, CFR’s Ariel Sheinberg writes in this In Brief. 

 
 
 
 

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