From Deb Otis, FairVote <[email protected]>
Subject New reports: 81% of House races are already decided, 18 months before Election Day
Date April 28, 2025 8:06 PM
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Uncompetitive elections lead to unrepresentative outcomes. The Fair
Representation Act can stabilize and strengthen our democracy. Donate Today!
Dear John,

Poll after poll shows Americans believe their elected representatives don’t care
about what they think.

Why? Uncompetitive elections lead to unrepresentative outcomes. Most U.S. House
members have little reason to care what most of their district’s voters think –
they are nearly guaranteed to win re-election anyway.

That’s the main takeaway oftwo new reportswe released today, capturing the
complete lack of competition in our congressional elections:

* 84% of House seats in 2024 were decided by 10+ points or completely
uncontested, meaning that just 16% of House seats were even somewhat
competitive.
* The average margin of victory in House races was 27 points, and 12 states had
no races decided by fewer than 20 points.
* We’re bound to repeat the cycle in 2026 – the outcome for 352 of 435 House
elections (81%) has effectively been decided, 18 months before Election Day.
* Only 37 seats – or 9% – will be true tossups in 2026.

Competition has steadily declined since we began tracking this data for our
Monopoly Politics report in 1996. See how in the chart below:


How do we fix it? Ranked choice voting can increase competition and deliver more
representative outcomes in both primaries and general elections. Long-term, the
Fair Representation Act– likely to be re-introduced in Congress later this
session – can stabilize and strengthen our democracy.

Check out ourinteractive webpagefor more info–including how every state ranks
for competitive elections – or go right to the full 2024and 2026 reports.

Best,
Deb Otis
FairVote Director of Research and Policy


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