Hello John, The House and Senate have finally approved a single budget resolution that is necessary to renew the Trump tax cuts of 2017. With House Speaker Mike Johnson’s Memorial Day deadline for getting this bill to President Trump’s desk around the corner, this was a major obstacle to overcome — but it wasn’t easy, and it does set up some serious challenges down the road. To be sure, this is not your normal budget resolution, but it was necessary to confront some unusual circumstances. Since reconciliation bills only require a simple majority vote in the Senate — not the normal 60 votes required to break a filibuster — congressional Republicans want to cram as many other priorities in the bill as they can. The flipside is that the rules of reconciliation limit what can and cannot be put in these kinds of bills. That is especially true in the Senate, where the Byrd rule makes it almost impossible to include any provision that doesn’t affect the budget in some way. Furthermore, some budgetary savings will likely be required to finance the tax cuts, and there is disagreement on what those savings should look like and how much they should be. So, how did the House and Senate come up with a solution that addresses these thorny issues while also taking into account the Senate’s unique rules? While a traditional reconciliation budget outlines identical savings, spending, and tax goals up front, this bill charts a more unconventional path. Instead of hammering out a unified budget blueprint to guide deliberations in each chamber, the House and Senate passed one budget containing different instructions — one set for the House and a different set for the Senate. This approach allows each chamber to address issues like Medicaid, funding freezes, and defense spending in its own way instead of trying to hammer them out now, which could drag on and kill momentum. The two chambers will reconcile their differences on tax cuts, military spending, energy policy, border security investments, and more at a later date. One example. The Senate wants minimal spending cuts — just $4 billion. The House? About $1.5 trillion. That’s a huge disparity, but senators say it gives them more flexibility in dealing with the Byrd rule. Many House members may have a hard time agreeing to a budget that forces the House to make tough spending decisions while giving the Senate a pass. And fiscal hawks may balk at no spending offsets for the tax cuts. In the end, however, commitments by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President Trump to find at least $1.5 trillion in spending reductions were enough to sway House Republicans to vote for the budget. But the big takeaway is that the House vote to pass the budget moves the process forward, and, at this point, that is the most important thing. Republicans rightly recognize that time is of the essence. “At this point, it’s about getting the process unlocked and moving forward,” says Sen. Lindsey Graham. He’s right. By taking this bold shortcut, both chambers might be able to expedite the process and ensure critical legislation reaches the floor as early as possible. You’ve heard me say it before: Each day that passes creates more uncertainty across the economic landscape. And uncertainty is bad for the economy. So, the sooner we can remove uncertainty from the equation, the better. Stay tuned as we continue to track the negotiations and their potential outcomes. With so much at stake, there’s no time to waste. So, please contact your elected officials today and tell them to keep the focus on cutting taxes. |