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ECUADOR ENTERS “TRUMP MODE” WITH NOBOA VICTORY  
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Ociel Alí López
April 17, 2025
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_ Authoritarian drift and political blackmail shape the runoff
election in Ecuador, where incumbent President Daniel Noboa won
Sunday’s vote. _

Incumbent President Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s Presidential runoff
vote on Sunday, defeating his opponent Luisa González of the
Citizens’ Revolution party., Flickr/Casa de América/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0


 

On Sunday, Ecuador’s National Electoral Council announced the
results of the runoff election for the 2025 to 2029 presidential term.
Incumbent President Daniel Noboa emerged victorious, earning 55
percent of the vote, while his opponent, Luisa González, trailed
behind with 44 percent of the vote. González immediately declared
electoral fraud, citing a series of irregularities including Noboa’s
declaration of a “state of exception” in seven strategic provinces
two days before the elections. Now the world is asking: What scenarios
are emerging in Ecuador given the country’s deepening political
polarization?

Two weeks ago, during the final stretch of the runoff campaign, U.S.
President Donald Trump privately received Noboa at Mar-a-Lago. While
the details of that meeting have not been made public, Noboa appears
to have received the “green light” to accelerate the country’s
authoritarian drift. Following this meeting, a series of actions by
the Noboa government evidenced this turn. Although Trump stopped short
of endorsing Noboa explicitly, the mysterious meeting symbolized
Noboa’s adoption of the “Trump Way”: a “right-wing populist”
style that relies on blackmail as its central tool. Noboa left the
meeting promising that the United States would exclude Ecuadorians
from mass deportation lists —something Washington never confirmed—
a critical issue for a country in which a significant percentage of
the population receives remittances from abroad, especially from the
United States.

Noboa exploited the fear that Ecuadorian migrants would end up in
detention centers like Guantánamo or prisons in El Salvador—thus
jeopardizing the crucial flow of remittances. 

The threat of mass deportations was instrumentalized to influence the
vote. Noboa exploited the fear that Ecuadorian migrants would end up
in detention centers like Guantánamo or prisons in El Salvador—thus
jeopardizing the crucial flow of remittances. This blackmail,
although subtle, struck a sensitive nerve: Ecuador has been a producer
of migrants for decades, and the United States has long been the most
sought-after destination.

In the first round of voting on February 9, Noboa was surprised by
a “technical tie”
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González, the candidate from the Citizens’ Revolution (CR) party.
In the following weeks, González gained unprecedented backing from
the Pachakutik Indigenous movement, which garnered five percent of the
vote in the first round and has historically clashed with the RC.
Facing mounting pressure, Noboa needed to turn the campaign around. To
do so, he had to put more “meat on the fire,” which meant offering
spectacular responses to Ecuadorians’ foremost concern: criminal
violence.

After winning fewer votes than González in the first round, the first
thing Noboa did was hire Erik Prince, founder of the controversial
mercenary company Blackwater. Prince, who arrived in Ecuador in early
April, interfered directly in the electoral campaign, unleashing a 
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offensive
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González.

Then, two days before the Sunday’s runoff vote, Noboa decreed a
60-day “state of exception”
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seven of the country's 24 provinces, as well as in the metropolitan
district of Quito. All of these territories are strategic in the
electoral arena, including districts that support the RC. The decree
grants enhanced military powers, suspends the right to free assembly,
and authorizes warrantless searches. Furthermore, Noboa withdrew
González’s public security detail the day before the runoff
election, a move widely interpreted as a political intimidation tactic
in a country where violence against political figures has surged. In
2023, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated
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weeks before the election, and dozens of mayors and congressmembers
have been killed over the last five years.

A Conservative Project with Long-Term Ambitions

The son of Ecuador’s richest man, Noboa was unexpectedly chosen by
conservative sectors in the first round of elections in 2023, after
former President Guillermo Lasso triggered snap elections through a
constitutional mechanism called the “muerte cruzada” or “mutual
death,” Now, Noboa has positioned himself to serve until 2033 if
he’s able to secure reelection in 2029.

Noboa represents an opportunity for stability for a right wing that,
until now, has failed to consolidate its position. This follows the
short-lived administrations of Lenín Moreno (2017-2021), who broke
with former president Rafael Correa's party but governed weakly, and
Lasso (2021-2023), who was forced to call early elections following
protests and threats of impeachment. Noboa is now completing Lasso’s
term.

According to a 2010 constitutional ruling
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when a head of state completes their predecessor’s term following
the application of a muerte cruzada, that period does not count
towards constitutional term limits. That means Noboa will be eligible
for reelection in 2029.

To this end, Noboa is courting Washington’s support by offering two
strategically located military bases: in Manta and the Galápagos
Islands. The proposal to reopen the Manta base revives a long-standing
dispute between the United States and the Correa administration, which
expelled the U.S. military from the area in 2009. Meanwhile the
Galápagos Islands, situated offshore in the Pacific Ocean, lie near
the China-Peru trade route—boosted by the Chinese megaport in
Chancay,
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of Lima, inaugurated by Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2024.

Noboa strategically blurs the line between the fight against drug
trafficking and targeting his political opponents—a tactic he may
pursue with even greater vigor now that the official results have been
announced.

Amid a climate of widespread violence, and under the pretext of
combating drug gangs—which have turned Ecuador, a country that had
remained relatively immune to the ravages of drug trafficking, unlike
its neighbors Colombia and Peru, into a site of unprecedented
violence—Noboa is promoting exceptional measures that also aim to
neutralize his political rivals. One only needs to recall the Noboa
administration’s raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito in 2024
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arrest the former Correa-era Vice President Jorge Glass, which
triggered a diplomatic rupture with Mexico that remains
unresolved. Noboa strategically blurs the line between the fight
against drug trafficking and targeting his political opponents—a
tactic he may pursue with even greater vigor now that the official
results have been announced. Given the RC party’s refusal to
acknowledge the results, a further escalation of political conflict
appears likely.

The RC Rejects the Results

On Monday, González claimed fraud, refused to recognize the result,
called for a recount, and called the president a “dictator.” The
RC is the majority party in the National Assembly and has a
significant number of governorships (9 of 23) and mayoralties (50 of
221). González’s biggest challenge now is to maintain party, as
several RC leaders who recognize her as their candidate have chosen to
accept the results.

Ahead of the vote, González established an unprecedented alliance
with an old adversary: the powerful Indigenous movement, a ley
political force whose mass mobilizations have overthrown governments
in the past (such as Jamil Mahuad in 2000 and Lucio Gutiérrez in
2005) and brought others like Lenín Moreno (2017-2021) to the brink
of collapse. In October 2019, Moreno was forced to relocate government
headquarters amid massive protests. The same occurred with Lasso's
government, which ultimately called early elections due to conditions
of ungovernability.

For Ecuador’s right, these episodes represented failed attempts to
consolidate long-term rule. Now, they look to Noboa to deliver a
durable conservative project capable of resisting the inevitable waves
of protest that will emerge from progressive sectors in response to
his neoliberal and repressive agenda. Social movements—especially
the Confederation of Indigenous Nations of Ecuador
(CONAIE), denounced in a statement
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Wednesday Noboa’s’ plans for harsh economic adjustment and the
expansion of large-scale mining projects.

This coalition between Correísmo and the Indigenous movement could
ignite a major political crisis if it decides to openly challenge the
government, as González has indicated since the night of the runoff.
All of this points to a new, volatile chapter in Ecuadorian politics,
just as Noboa seeks to impose contested economic and geopolitical
measures, including the construction of foreign military bases, the
expanded mining concessions, and partnerships with mercenary
companies.

What's Next in Ecuador?

Sunday's result entrenches Noboa’s conservative and authoritarian
project, offering the right a rare opportunity for stability after
decades of struggling to maintain power beyond isolated, crisis-ridden
terms.

Regardless of whether fraud allegations gain traction, what is clear
is that Ecuador has become the first domino to fall in the region
under the renewed influence of Trumpism in Latin America. 

Regardless of whether fraud allegations gain traction, what is clear
is that Ecuador has become the first domino to fall in the region
under the renewed influence of Trumpism in Latin America. Trump’s
return to the White House has emboldened repressive tactics,
legitimized political blackmail, and is likely to impact upcoming
elections across the region.

Ecuador is now emerging as a regional laboratory for rapprochement
with Trump’s political style: the politics of spectacle (exemplified
by the May 2024 “mano dura” referendum) and alliances with
controversial actors like Erik Prince. Although there is no evidence
of massive fraud, the election results reveal how Trumpism can
influence democratic processes.

According to his campaign promises, Noboa’s next step will likely be
to reform the 2008 constitution,
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during the Correa administration, which will surely provoke
confrontation. Already, the president has articulated plans to
authorize foreign military bases, in the country—expressly
prohibited under the current constitution,—and to toughen criminal
penalties.

But resistance is already coalescing. At the end of March, the RC and
CONAIE declared their opposition to constitutional changes that would
“restrict the rights of nature or violate the social achievements
gained by Indigenous, Black, Cholo, and Montubio peoples.” The
movements are concerned that the plurinational and intercultural
nature of the current Constitution will be eradicated.

The looming question is whether these forces will clash violently or
force a tense coexistence. Meanwhile, Ecuador navigates turbulent
waters: between the shadow of a new authoritarianism and the memory of
its powerful social movement.

_OCIEL ALÍ LÓPEZ__ is a sociologist and winner of the Clacso-Sida
award for young researchers and the Caracas municipal literature
award. He is a professor at the Central University of Venezuela and
writes about Latin America._

* Ecuador
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* elections
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* Neoliberalism
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* U.S. intervention
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