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TRUMP POLICY POSES THREAT TO UKRAINE AND EUROPE  
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Phillips P. OBrien
April 18, 2025
Phillips’s Newsletter
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_ Trump's plan for Ukraine seems to be reaching a tipping point.
European states may soon be confronted with an entirely different war.
They will either have to decisively support Ukraine or we could see an
end to democratic Europe. _

,

 

So it turns out that Donald Trump could not end the war in Ukraine in
24 hours. In fact, he could not even arrange a ceasefire in the almost
three months since his inauguration. Nor was he ever going to.
Trump’s priority was never to achieve peace, it was always to end
the war on the best terms for Russia. And that means what the US has
been doing is bullying Ukraine into a terrible deal which would give
Russia Ukrainian territory, end sanctions on Russia, and provide
Ukraine no meaningful security guarantees.

If Trump was going to bring an end to the fighting (an extraordinarily
difficult task) it was going to have to be because of a subtle and
intelligent application of US power to make both sides believe he has
a plan. Alas, he does not and never did. His plan has always been to
step away from Ukraine and move closer to Russia.

And his plan seems to be reaching a tipping point which means European
states might soon be confronted with an entirely different war in
Ukraine, one they should have been preparing for for at least a year,
but instead one that they have wilfully pretended would never happen.
This is the great crisis that we have been moving almost inevitably
towards since Trump returned to the White House.

The crisis would start with the ending of the US attempts to broker a
deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, just a few hours ago, claimed
that if there was no deal soon, Trump might throw in the towel
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His exact quote about a deal was:

_“If it’s not possible, if we’re so far apart that this is not
going to happen then I think the president is probably at a point
where he’s going to say we’re done,”_

The repercussions of this could alter the war—in ways Europe is not
yet ready to face. Trump saying that the US is “done” does not
mean US neutrality in the war. It almost certainly means the US
getting back to business with Russia, maybe even ending all sanctions
that it can, while at the same time giving no more aid to Ukraine.
Even while trying to broker a deal, Trump has been refusing to sell
arms to Ukraine.

As this is being written, reports are coming out that part of the
“peace” package that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine now
involves an end of sanctions on Russia
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Again, this should be no surprise. Trump has been angling to end
sanctions on Russia for years. In the middle of the Presidential
campaign, he made an explicit pitch to weaken sanctions on Russia
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In a September speech he said:

_“I want to use sanctions as little as possible….You’re losing
Iran, you’re losing Russia. China is out there trying to get their
currency to be the dominant currency,”_

_“There’s so much conflict with all these countries that you’re
going to lose” the dominance of the dollar.”_

Everything he has done since becoming President has shown how
committed he was to this. He has talked repeatedly about restoring
business links with Russia, and his personal envoy, Steve Witkoff, has
spent hours negotiating with the Russians, partly about getting back
to business. Trump is chomping at the bit to end sanctions on Russia.

And remember, Trump deliberately exempted Russia from his tariffs
list.

If Trump does end, or even just seriously water down sanctions on
Russia—the war could be transformed. Basically Russia would then
receive the open or tacit backing of _both _of the superpowers of the
moment—China and the USA. That would be unprecedented, and I think
explains why Russia has been so desperate to continue with the war
even in the face of their losses. Russia will be backed by the
majority of the world’s economic and military might.

And who knows how both the US and China might up their support for
Russia. I was planning on writing more about this in my next piece,
but if China felt it could flood Russia with military aid and suffer
no economic repercussions, that alone could have a massive impact on
the war.

Europe and Ukraine will be left alone. European leaders will no longer
have the luxury of pretending everything will be alright in the end.
They will either have to act with energy and decisiveness to support
Ukraine, or we could see the end of a liberal and democratic Europe.

I hope they have not left it too late.

_Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive
new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid
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