Trump Adds Biden Comparison to Doubtful Tariff Revenue Claim

President Donald Trump's list of dubious talking points keeps getting longer.

After announcing a host of new tariffs on April 2, some of which he later paused for 90 days, the president began regularly claiming that his tariffs are bringing in "$2 billion a day" in federal revenue. And now, at least twice, he has added to that claim, saying, for comparison, that the U.S. was losing "$2 billion a day" or "$3 billion a day" under former President Joe Biden.

But the White House hasn't provided evidence to support his claims.

In fact, as Staff Writer D'Angelo Gore writes, a Treasury Department daily financial statement for April 15 indicated that the government received no more than about $156 million per day in customs duties (tariffs) and excise taxes through the first half of the month. Meanwhile, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which collects the tariffs on imports at ports of entry, said on April 8 that the agency had only collected "over $200 million in additional associated revenue" each day from tariff-related executive actions implemented since the start of Trump's second term.

Economists told D'Angelo that Trump's $2 billion per-day revenue figure may refer to the maximum amount that his tariffs could potentially raise, if U.S. importers, despite the higher rates, continue to import the same amount of foreign goods that they did in 2024. But that is an unrealistic assumption, they said.

As for Biden losing billions of dollars a day, the economists said that Trump's figures appear to be based on the average daily U.S. trade deficit in 2024 – not revenue from tariffs.

"My guess is that’s what Trump is mentally doing — since trade deficits mean you’re 'losing' in his vocabulary,” said Robert C. Johnson, an associate professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame.

However, Gene M. Grossman, a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, told D'Angelo that "it’s ridiculous to think of [the trade deficit] as a loss."

Read the full story, "Trump Expands on Dubious Daily Tariff Revenue Claim."

Reader: A reader directed our attention to a Washington Examiner article with the headline, “DOGE sounds alarm on Social Security numbers given to ‘voting’ noncitizens,” and asked, “Could you please tell us if there is any truth to it?"

FactCheck.org Deputy Director Robert Farley: We looked into this issue this week, and experts told us to attach a healthy dose of skepticism to the claims by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency he leads to have unearthed evidence to prove a longstanding conspiracy theory about Democrats orchestrating illegal voting by noncitizens on a scale large enough to swing national elections in their favor.

Antonio Gracias, a private equity investor who is working with DOGE, said the DOGE team matched Social Security numbers given to noncitizens with work visas against voter registration rolls in four sample states, and found thousands of crossovers.

Gracias said “many” of those people actually voted. It is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections, or to even register to vote. Gracias and Musk allege the voting reveals a Democratic plot to influence federal elections. DOGE says it provided the data to federal prosecutors for criminal investigation, but nothing has been shared publicly.

Without DOGE’s data, we can’t determine how many cases of noncitizen votes may have been uncovered. But voting and data experts warn that when matching millions of numbers in databases, even a small percentage of errors can distort things. That’s not to say there aren’t any noncitizens who wrongly register to vote, and that there aren’t some who actually do vote. But states that have performed detailed audits of voting records have found such instances to be relatively rare, and nowhere close to being enough votes to have swung a national election.

And, voting experts say, the conspiracy falls apart when you weigh the benefit of any single vote against the potential legal consequences faced by someone who votes illegally as a noncitizen — fines, jail time and deportation.

Read the full story, “Musk’s Unsupported Claim to Have Unveiled Massive Illegal Voting by Noncitizens.”

Wrapping Up

Here's what else we've got for you this week:

• Hits and Misses in RFK Jr.’s Comments on Food Dyes: In recent weeks, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said that “very, very strong studies” link food dyes to cancer and ADHD. Experts are concerned about the impacts of unhealthy diets and obesity in the U.S., but some say Kennedy overstates the role of food dyes in chronic disease.
   
• Trump Uses Questionable Figure for U.S. ‘Plants and Factories’ Lost Since NAFTA: When President Donald Trump has talked about the need for higher tariffs on imports of foreign goods because of a decline in American manufacturing, he has often made the claim that “90,000 plants and factories” in the U.S. closed after the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1994. But that figure is questionable, and experts say other factors, such as automation, had more to do with the large decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs than trade.
   
• No Sign of Texas Measles Outbreak Slowing, Contrary to RFK Jr.’s Claims: On four separate occasions, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Health and Human Services secretary, has suggested that the measles outbreak in Texas, which is now over 500 cases, is beginning to subside and grow more slowly. But a review of state data indicates there’s no decline yet in the pace of cases.