The Evening: EU Optimism, Weakened Global Growth, Elizabeth Reed, and More

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Good Evening,

It's Thursday, April 17th.

Optimism on EU

President Trump said he would have “very little problem” making a deal with the European Union to reduce tariffs in exchange for access to a U.S. market that he said has “something everyone wants,” as the WSJ reports

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Trade War to Weaken Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow slower this year and experience higher inflation than previously anticipated, according to new forecasts to be released by the International Monetary Fund that will show the global fallout of the U.S. trade war, as the NYT reports

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Chinese Firm Helping Houthis Target American Warships

A Chinese satellite company linked to the country’s military is supplying Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen with imagery to target U.S. warships and international vessels in the Red Sea, as the FT reports

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Executive Education

Volatile trade relations are disrupting markets, shaking industry, and challenging alliances. Navigating a shifting global economy requires a strong understanding of the political and legal foundations of trade. Crash Course: Trade Policy with the Trade Guys

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explores the nuances of U.S. trade policy and examines the challenges and opportunities facing global trade. Register

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by April 30.

Audio Briefs

CSIS now offers audio versions of our latest analysis. Listen to the latest Commentary by CSIS's Kyle Meng, "Economic Consequences of “Liberation Day” Tariffs

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In That Number

2.25 percent

The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.25 percent as it prepares for the economic fallout from the trade war ignited by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Source: FT

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Critical Quote

“Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

—President Donald Trump

iDeas Lab

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New CSIS Futures Lab research indicates that some widely used models (e.g., Llama 8B, Gemini 1.5, and Qwen2) choose escalatory responses in the benchmark study, compared to models like Claude, GPT, Llama 70B, and Mistral, that chose a decrease in conflict intensity. See the full analysis here.

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The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and multimedia.

Optics

(Photo credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images.) U.S. President Donald Trump greets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni outside the West Wing of the White House on April 17, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Recommended Reading

"How Is Bird Flu Impacting Agriculture and Food Security in the United States?

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" by CSIS's Caitlin Welsh and Zane Swanson.

This Town Upcoming

On Tuesday at 9:00 a.m.

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, the CSIS Africa Program discusses how the Alliance for African Multilateral Financial Institutions can grow and further promote the interests of its member states and shareholders.

On Tuesday at 3:00 p.m.

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, the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program explores the forces redefining global climate action and the difficult questions facing policymakers.

On Wednesday at 9:00 a.m.

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, the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development hosts the ninth annual Global Development Forum to discuss future opportunities for U.S. engagement with developing and emerging market countries.

Video

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of resiliency and using the total strength of society to ensure the survival of a state. On this week's Conflict in Focus: Whole of Society Resilience panel, experts discuss the issue. Watch the full video here.

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Podcasts

CSIS's Scott Kennedy joins the podcast to discuss the latest in the U.S.-China trade war, including China’s technological capabilities, new export controls, and the possibility of future decoupling.

Listen on Spotify

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& Apple Podcasts

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Smiles

One more

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from The Brothers at Madison Square Garden this week. Here’s hoping they go on tour this summer.

I invite you to email me at [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed by Lauren Adler, Ava Rose, and the External Relations team.

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