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Dear Friend,

As the country battens down the hatches for Cyclone Tam, your humble Taxpayers' Union is preparing for a different storm: the economic implications on New Zealand of the Trump tariffs. 

This week, we also cut to the truth about whether Nicola Willis is spending big or cutting her cloth, and why she is so annoyed with the Taxpayers' Union.

We also, errr, expose Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet bureaucrats for looking at p*rn while at work. Awkward...

But first: the economy.

The impending storm clouds - growth forecasts slashed in half 🌩️

Hot of the press this morning, Infometrics is the first of the major economic consultancies to put some actual numbers around what everyone agrees is an uncertain international situation.

The company says GDP growth for next year will come down from 2.4 percent to just 1.0 percent. Not good news for the Beehive or anyone who wants New Zealand to get out of the economic shtook.

Read more on the Infometrics website here: Economy’s recovery on ice as trade war hits growth

Friend, all roads lead back to the need for this year's Budget (just 35 sleeps away) to go for growth.

New Zealand needs substantive policy, not just PR and bumper sticker solutions.

The best 'bang for buck' to get a rocket under growth is full capital expensing: to get businesses investing in the very capital that will make New Zealand more productive.

To read more about the merits of the proposal click here.

When the facts don't fit the political narrative: Nicola Willis takes a swipe at the Taxpayers' Union 😱

The role of any good taxpayer advocate is to point out inconvenient fiscal truths. Sometimes that annoys the politicians – whoever is in Government. 😬

So is the case with Nicola Willis who likes to position herself as a prudent fiscal manager. Among other things, she claims to be reigning back the last Government's excessive spending.

But the facts don't fit the narrative.

Last year's Budget (the first delivered by Nicola Willis) spent more than Grant Robertson's Budget the previous year. That's true for both measuring it in real (inflation adjusted) terms and as a percentage of the economy.

But Ms Willis continues to claims she's spending 'less'. How does she square the circle?

You see Friend, it's all framed up using what was projected using the earlier budgets.

In her Budget 2024 speech in Parliament Nicola Willis highlighted that the final "operating allowance" (that is the term used for new baseline spending) for Budget 2024 was $3.2 billion, which is below the $3.5 billion allowance set by the previous government.

Willis emphasised that this is the lowest allowance in nominal terms since Budget 2018 and the lowest in real terms since the Sir Bill English-era. That's all true, but 'reduced' spending, it is not.

So let's cut to the facts:

1. No matter how you measure it, Nicola Willis is spending more than Grant Roberson was actually spending (she's also borrowing at a faster rate than Robbo!)
2. But she is spending less than Grant Robertson planned to spend.

The opposition use exactly the same spin trick 😏

This reliance on forecasting - rather than actual spending – is the very same trick the opposition use to claim the Government has 'cut' public services. They treat the earlier longer-term forecasts as if it was real spending, and say that reductions to the size of an increase is a 'cut'.  

Now you know...

Nicola Willis says we don't have 'our facts in a row'. Judge for yourself, ... ⚖️

Last night on Heather du Plessis-Allan's NewstalkZB show, Nicola Willis gave your humble Taxpayers' Union a serve, claiming that "not for the first time, they haven't got their facts quite in a row" referring to our media release.

>>Listen here<<

Rather than hit back (we've been called worse!), make up your own mind.

In 2015 – the Bank's five-year funding was set at $324.3 million. In 2020, it was hiked up to $639.6 million. Grant Robertson also granted "emergency" top ups for 2023 and 2024 ($48 million and $30 million, respectively).

Now it's time for the next five-year funding round and Willis says she's "cut" the funding to $775.6 million.  

But that still amounts to a 21 percent hike on the last five-year agreement, and a 131 percent increase on the one before that.

The Government would have you believe it’s a funding reduction because – get this – the Reserve Bank asked for $1.03 billion and Nicola Willis didn’t quite give them all of it. And, it is a reduction from the "emergency" funding that Grant Robertson waved through before exiting the building for his good mate Adrian Orr.

Friend, six years ago the Reserve Bank had 225 staff. Now it has 660 (not quite captured by the chart below).

Is Nicola Willis 'cutting' or just locking-in Grant Robertson's big-spending legacy? 🔒

It doesn't bode well for what’s in store in next month’s Budget...

Today's inflation data: Local council's continue to drive costs of living pressure 💸

The other big economic news today is the latest inflation numbers released few hours ago. It's ticking up, and a big driver is yet again is the out of control council rates...  🙄 

Local rates increases were responsible for 14 percent of the CPI increase.

You can read our comments to media here.

TAXPAYER VICTORY! $400m green slush fund gets flushed 🚽☘️

In better news, Minister for Climate Change Simon Watts has flushed the $400 million green slush fund known as the NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd (NZGIF).

NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd (NZGIF) is a $400 million green slush fund that blew $115 million on Solar Zero (a company backed by trillion-dollar BlackRock) and still went bust.

$280 million in climate handouts were dished out to big business in last year's Budget, including EV truck subsidies and “fuel switching” grants. Now it’s up to Nicola Willis to finish the job in Budget 2025 and put an end to the subsidies.

With an emissions trading scheme to reduce emissions already in place – why are we paying twice? We say the subsidies also need to go to zero. 

Greenwashing lobbyists, you’re on notice. 👊

Money doesn't grow on trees - unless you're funding a $12 billion defence plan? 🪖💰

The Government recently announced a $12 billion plan for Defence spending.  That's not chump change: it's the equivalent to $6,000 for every household. 

Prime Minister Luxon told media that “we can afford this,” but things get a bit murkier when it comes to how. 🤔

Most New Zealanders agree that New Zealand needs to up its defence. But with no savings flagged elsewhere how exactly are we to pay for it?

Ironically, only Australian media asked this blatantly obvious question. 🤷

The Government is already borrowing $6,000-per-household per year thanks to the deficit. The offical national debt clock is climbing $25 million higher every day.

That’s not sustainable – and it's a real threat to New Zealand.

The Finance Minister has said that the extra $9 billion of new spending will come entirely from the Government's $2.4 billion yearly spending buffer. Even if that's true, it means the Government will effectively be pausing all other new capital spending: i.e. new hospital equipment, school refurbishments etc.

It just doesn't add up.

Speaking of Defence spending, our research team has come across an example of its spending that probably won't have New Zealand's adversaries shaking in their boots. Forget tanks, it's Beam scooters!

Marching round bases is so yesterday: Defence Force's $32,800 Beam Scooter joyrides 🛴💨

Military heroes aren't always taxpayer heroes. Thanks to an anonymous tipper, our investigations team confirmed the Defence Force has spent $32,800 on e-scooters. For one airforce base! 🚨

Yes - officials decided it was a good time for our nation's defenders to zip round on extortionately priced, rent-by-the-second e-scooters. 

Even the most staunch taxpayer advocate knows we need a strong and capable Defence Force. But spending money preparing for the invasion of a skate park isn't it!

PM's Office caught with their tabs down 😵

It seems one too many late nights in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) has left more than a few Cabinet staffers red-faced.

Some rather diligent digging from the Taxpayers' Union investigations team revealed 24 recorded 'incidents' of government personnel trying to access *ahem* adult entertainment on their work devices.

Now, Friend, we're all for a little (fiscal) discipline, and we certainly don't object to burning the midnight oil – but let's all agree there's no place for bureaucrats to be accessing smut while on the taxpayers' dime!

Either these staffers have way too much time on their hands – or not nearly enough accountability during their work time. Either way, taxpayers deserve more focus (or perhaps fewer distractions?) from the public service supporting the PM.

NEW POLL: “Woop! Woop!” – bad news for da' Greens 🚨

It's been a bad few weeks for the Greens, who've dug themselves into holes doubling down on controversies. 👀

Green Police and Corrections spokesperson Tamatha Paul MP is sticking to her comments that police made people feel more unsafe, should be defunded, and that prisons should be abolished.

 

However our latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll found that police on more beat patrols made 66 percent of people feel safer and only 10 percent feel less safe.

 

Embarrassingly for Ms Paul, even her own party's voters don't agree with her.

The polls finds that 48 percent of Greens felt safer with more beat patrols, compared to just 19 percent who felt 'less safe'.

Speaking of feeling safe, apparently some people are scared of the Taxpayers' Union...

Taxpayer Talk: What are Simon Watts' climate targets costing you? 💰🌳

This week on Taxpayer Talk, Peter Williams sits down with our Senior Researcher, Levi Gibbs, to discuss the true cost of New Zealand’s climate targets – and how the Government can get back on a pathway to surplus without raising taxes.

In this episode, Levi also previews our upcoming report, Pathway to Surplus, revealing billions in potential savings by cutting wasteful spending, ending corporate welfare, and rethinking welfare spending.

You can listen to the episode on our website, or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart Radio and other good podcast apps. 

Have a great long weekend and stay safe in this weather.

James Ross Policy & Public Affairs Manager New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union

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