New research from the Unite America Institute confirms a stark reality: Most ballots cast in American elections don’t matter in deciding the outcome.
In 2024, just 14% of eligible voters cast a meaningful vote that actually influenced the outcome of a U.S. House race. For state house races, on average across all 50 states, just 13% cast meaningful votes.
What is a Meaningful Vote?
A meaningful vote is a vote that matters to the outcome of a competitive election.
More than simply counting voter turnout, meaningful votes incorporates competition to reveal not just how many votes were cast, but how many votes actually determined an election’s outcome.
Why Don’t All Votes Matter?
Most federal and state districts are “safe” for one party or the other, meaning elections are effectively decided in closed primaries where only a small number of voters participate — excluding millions of independents from the process.
Unite America calls this phenomenon the Primary Problem, and meaningful votes was developed to examine this problem from a voter-centric perspective.
What Makes More Votes Meaningful?
In a word: Competition. And what creates more competition? Open, all-candidate primaries — which more than double the share of meaningful votes. In Alaska, meaningful votes jumped from 22% in 2020 to 35% in 2022 (a 58% increase).
