Home to more than half the world’s population, Asia has in recent years offered an intriguing illustration of the interplay between population aging and migration. Globally, the number of people age 60 and older is expected to more than double from 1 billion in 2020 to 2.1 billion by 2050, at which point the elderly will account for more than one-fifth of the population. But Asia, the origin of more than 40 percent of all international migrants, is aging even faster; by 2050, one-quarter of the continent will be 60 and above. Demographics vary widely across the region. Birthrates tend to be lowest in Northeast Asian countries including Japan and South Korea, which have in recent years become poster children for ambivalent immigration policies amid demographic decline. While generally immigration-averse, Tokyo and Seoul in recent years have crept towards opening immigration pathways as a salve for looming labor-market and economic challenges. China has also been resistant to increase immigration, in part because it has relied on the large numbers of internal migrants moving to cities. Yet populations are also getting older in many net-origin migration countries, including Bangladesh and Vietnam, which cannot rely on the prospect of foreign workers to cover labor-market gaps. These countries are approaching the point of seeing their populations simultaneously emigrate and age, often without savings or pension schemes to support them in retirement. Even India, now the world’s most populous country and the largest migrant origin, is seeing fertility rates decline below replacement level. Unlike elsewhere on the continent, these countries are likely to get old before they become rich. Indeed, by 2050, two-thirds of the world’s elderly will live in low- and middle-income countries. But other countries in Asia, including the Philippines and Tajikistan, have far more youthful demographics and have continued to rely on emigrant workers to drive their economies. The differential rates of aging across the continent could lead to greater intra-Asian migration, at least for the time being, as older countries become increasingly reliant on new workers. In any case, international migration is likely only a temporary solution to labor gaps prompted by demographic decline, which at some point will be omnipresent. Nearly every country in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to have below-replacement fertility by 2050. And the global population, currently estimated at 8.2 billion, is likely to reach a peak of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s and then decline. As the planet looks ahead to that graying future, Asia’s varied demographic landscape may offer a preview. All the best, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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