June 9, 2020
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
It looks like the labor market bottomed in April. Here’s what it means for Trump’s reelection in the coming months as America reopens.
The U.S. economy
created over 3.8 million jobs in May in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
household survey, and 2.5 million in its establishment survey, heralding the
bottom of labor markets in April. How do we know April was the bottom? Unless
we’re anticipating losing 3.8 million jobs in June when America is reopening,
barring a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the momentum is moving
precisely in the opposite direction, the overwhelming likelihood is that June,
July and August will only add to what has already been gained. That will mean
boosted labor participation, which added 1.7 million back to the civilian labor
force last month. And a lower overall unemployment rate. So, millions of jobs
added each month, reaching a fever pitch this summer in time for the political
conventions, highlighting easing concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic and the
current protests and riots, and it’s easy to see how President Donald Trump and his reelection bid
will be dramatically strengthened. It's not hard to predict at all.
Cartoon: Stand for Freedom
The price of
liberty is eternal vigilance.
Defunding police is the wrong answer, look at collective bargaining agreements
“Everyone agrees
that police brutality is wrong. It is in
fact every bit as much of an assault on the rule of law as attacking our public
institutions with Molotov Cocktails. But those screaming for police
accountability are missing the real problem. It is that bad cops are shielded
by public employee unions like they were bureaucrats caught stealing paper
clips. To get police accountability, you need to break the stranglehold that
police unions and the public employee contracts they negotiate have over local
governments. With all the focus on the death of George Floyd, most people have
no idea that the reason it took the Minneapolis City government two days to
react was because the union contract stipulates a two-day cooling off period
before anything can be done about a police related death.”
Myron Ebell: In supporting 'Land Grab' bill, Republicans unwittingly support socialism
“Many Republicans in Congress made political hay by
labeling the Green New Deal as "socialism." Surprisingly, too many of
these same Republicans are now the leading supporters of a major piece of
socialist legislation. Unlike the Green New Deal, which was defeated in the
Senate with 57 votes against and none in favor (with 43 Democrats voting
present), the Senate is on the verge of passing the Great America Outdoors Act
with Republican support, plus almost unanimous Democratic support. What makes
the bill socialist policy? Socialism means a lot of things to people today but
has historically been defined as government ownership of the means of
production. Land is an indispensable means of production. The Great America
Outdoors Act would socialize private land on an unprecedented scale. In the
rest of this article, I'll call it the Land Grab bill. The Land Grab bill
contains two titles. The first would spend $9.5 billion over five years to
reduce the backlog of maintenance and restoration on existing federal lands.
That should be a clue that the federal government is not good at taking care of
what it owns. The second title is the overtly socialist part. It would
dramatically increase the rate of government acquisition of private land and
make it permanent. Currently, Congress makes annual appropriations for federal,
state, and local acquisition under the authority of the Land and Water
Conservation Fund of 1965.”
It looks like the labor market bottomed in April. Here’s what it means for Trump’s reelection in the coming months as America reopens.
By Robert Romano
The U.S. economy created over 3.8 million jobs in May in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey, and 2.5 million in its establishment survey, heralding the bottom of labor markets in April.
How do we know April was the bottom? Unless we’re anticipating losing 3.8 million jobs in June when America is reopening, barring a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the momentum is moving precisely in the opposite direction, the likelihood is that June, July and August will only add to what has already been gained.
That will mean boosted labor participation, which added 1.7 million Americans back to the civilian labor force last month alone.
And a lower overall unemployment rate.
So, millions of jobs added each month, reaching a fever pitch this summer in time for the political conventions, highlighting easing concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic and the current protests and riots, and it’s easy to see how President Donald Trump and his reelection bid will be dramatically strengthened.
It's not hard to predict at all.
Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning praised the numbers, stating that the “employment numbers confirm that we’ve turned the corner on the Chinese originated virus economic disaster. More people are working, more people are in the workforce, and America is reopening. This is great news for the millions of Americans who fear that they may not have a job to return to. It is also a confirmation of President Trump’s emphasis on supporting small and mid-sized businesses that were either shut down or damaged as a result of the Covid-19 response.”
So far, the sectors of the economy benefitting the most from reopening include: 391,000 added in health care, 464,000 in construction, 225,000 in manufacturing, and 367,000 in retail.
Other factors lending to the current upside include the now weakening dollar from its record highs during the height of the pandemic, making deflation less likely during the recession, at least for now. A sudden strengthening of the dollar might reverse those gains.
Oil appears to be resurgent after OPEC agreed to production cuts into July but remains very volatile.
Add to the picture that Americans have been cooped up for months on end, and one can see a big recipe for pent-up demand fueling a recovery this summer. The question is how rapid it will be.
The good news is that with the labor market bottom having already been felt in April, this recession has already beat the financial crisis and Great Recession, when it took 25 months for all the jobs to be lost, and about five years to recover. Here, it took just two months for the worst of the job losses to be felt.
So if the downswing was that rapid, then it’s easier to make a case that so too will be the upside. However, should the job gains slow down considerably next month, that would be a large cause for concern.
Assuming the charts continue to be pointed in the right direction, very soon, President Trump can claim some vindication of his June 3 prediction that “I feel more and more confident that our economy is in the early stages of coming back very strong. Not everyone agrees with me, but I have little doubt. Watch for September, October, November. Next year will be one of the best ever, and look at the Stock Market NOW!”
So far, the way things are playing out, Trump may be right and it may even be on an accelerated timetable, months sooner than expected. In the political back and forth then between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, then, so far it seems to be the advantage is yielding to Trump.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/in-supporting-land-grab-bill-republicans-unwittingly-support-socialism
Cartoon: Stand for Freedom
Click here for a higher level resolution version.
Defunding police is the wrong answer, look at collective bargaining agreements
June 8, 2020, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement in response to calls to defund police departments nationwide:
“Everyone agrees that police brutality is wrong. It is in fact every bit as much of an assault on the rule of law as attacking our public institutions with Molotov Cocktails. But those screaming for police accountability are missing the real problem. It is that bad cops are shielded by public employee unions like they were bureaucrats caught stealing paper clips.
“To get police accountability, you need to break the stranglehold that police unions and the public employee contracts they negotiate have over local governments. With all the focus on the death of George Floyd, most people have no idea that the reason it took the Minneapolis City government two days to react was because the union contract stipulates a two-day cooling off period before anything can be done about a police related death.
“In that two days, many thought that they had to take to the streets to bring attention to the case, when in fact, the video had been around the world three times before the first protester hit the streets. If the Mayor of Minneapolis and the Governor of Minnesota had reacted immediately, explaining that the union contract requires time for the dust to settle in order for actions to be taken, it might have taken some of the oxygen out of the violent protests.
“What’s more, Americans would be demanding that their local governments review their local contracts to ensure that bad cops weren’t protected by bad public employee union contracts. If you want police accountability, that is what needs to happen, we need the unions to quit protecting the few bad apples whose actions are causing cities like Minneapolis to consider the insane act of defunding their entire police departments.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2020/06/defunding-police-is-the-wrong-answer-look-at-collective-bargaining-agreements/
ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured oped from the Washington Examiner, Myron Ebell makes the case against the Great America Outdoors Act as yet another federal land grab:
In supporting 'Land Grab' bill, Republicans unwittingly support socialism
By Myron Ebell
Many Republicans in Congress made political hay by labeling the Green New Deal as "socialism." Surprisingly, too many of these same Republicans are now the leading supporters of a major piece of socialist legislation. Unlike the Green New Deal, which was defeated in the Senate with 57 votes against and none in favor (with 43 Democrats voting present), the Senate is on the verge of passing the Great America Outdoors Act with Republican support, plus almost unanimous Democratic support.
What makes the bill socialist policy? Socialism means a lot of things to people today but has historically been defined as government ownership of the means of production. Land is an indispensable means of production. The Great America Outdoors Act would socialize private land on an unprecedented scale. In the rest of this article, I'll call it the Land Grab bill.
The Land Grab bill contains two titles. The first would spend $9.5 billion over five years to reduce the backlog of maintenance and restoration on existing federal lands. That should be a clue that the federal government is not good at taking care of what it owns.
The second title is the overtly socialist part. It would dramatically increase the rate of government acquisition of private land and make it permanent. Currently, Congress makes annual appropriations for federal, state, and local acquisition under the authority of the Land and Water Conservation Fund of 1965.
Land socialism, as practiced since the Land and Water Conservation Fund became law, is a peculiar kind of socialism. Traditionally, when the means of production are socialized, production is intended to continue. For instance, when Britain nationalized steel mills and coal mines in the 1950s, they continued producing steel and coal (although in practice, production tended to go down, and then down some more). But when the four federal land agencies — the Forest Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and Bureau of Land Management — buy private land, the purpose is to take it out of production and "preserve" it.
In short, modern land socialism perversely locks up the means of production.
Private property is a necessary condition of freedom and limited government. Among types of private property, land ownership has always been considered the most or among the most important for maintaining freedom and limited government. The United States already has far too much socialized land. The federal government owns 640 million acres or 28% of the country's total acreage. In the 11 Western states and Alaska, the four federal land agencies control more than 50% of the land. Some rural counties are more than 90% federally owned, and many more are more than 75%.
The consequences of all this government land are just what you'd expect from socialism. The environmental condition of the vast Western, federal estate ranges from fair to poor to dismal. The economic effects are uniformly dismal. Rural counties with lots of federal land (which are exempt from property taxes) struggle as resource producers are pushed off the land.
This environmental and economic devastation will only get worse as $900 million in annual funding from the Land Grab bill eventually buys millions and millions of acres of private land. But socialists care much more about power than about the environment or the economy.
It's, therefore, no surprise that 44 of the 47 Democrats in the Senate are co-sponsors of the Land Grab bill. But it is shocking that the main sponsor and 14 co-sponsors are Republicans, including several who opposed the Green New Deal because of its socialist character.
To take only one example, Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, the main sponsor, wrote in a March 2019 op-ed that the Green New Deal is a "thinly veiled attempt to implement the radical left’s socialist agenda."
In light of this statement, it appears that Gardner only opposes socialism when it is politically expedient. Because he and 15 other Republicans support the Land Grab bill and because it also enjoys majority support in the House, it is almost guaranteed to become law. The only hope now of stopping enactment is if some of the Senate Republican sponsors and President Trump wake up.
In his 2019 State of the Union address, Trump vowed that "America will never be a socialist country." But the president was hornswoggled at a secret White House meeting in early March into supporting the bill on the preposterous grounds that it would help several endangered senators get reelected.
At this point, the Land Grab bill is so close to Senate passage that the best strategy for Senate Republicans and the president is to support amendments that will make it less toxic. These include: a five-year sunset; requiring that state and local governments approve any future land acquisitions in their jurisdictions; a prohibition on the use of eminent domain; and a budget offset to pay for all the new spending.
To view online: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/in-supporting-land-grab-bill-republicans-unwittingly-support-socialism