What a time in American life. Our President initiates a trade war, the markets tremble, and then he pulls back on most of it. But the damage is done.

Consumer confidence is plummeting. Tourism is down. The appetite for dollars and American debt is shaky. Companies are scaling back. Credit card delinquencies are rising. The probability of a recession has spiked.

I met with a couple of CEOs this week who said, “The 10% blanket tariffs and the China tariffs will stifle billions of dollars in economic activity each month. People are acting relieved because of the 90-day stay but even what’s left behind is very significant. Plus, it’s not realistic to hammer out trade deals with other countries in 90 days, so there’s a lot of uncertainty.”

In my own circle, a friend lost his job and a company had investors pull out.

Sometimes, uncertainty feeds on itself. Are you going to hire that person or take that trip or make that purchase? Or maybe you should hunker down? Major companies and individuals alike are reining in spending. If enough people choose the latter, it kicks off a cycle.

This is one thing Trump either didn’t realize or didn’t care about; confidence is a delicate thing. If you shake it too much, it can waver and fail. People cue off of each other, and if enough people start heading in a direction others follow. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that.

It’s impossible to witness the leadership of the last couple of weeks and have confidence in those who are making decisions on behalf of all of us. The tortuous justifications and rationales were painful. Leadership matters, for better or worse. We deserve better than this.

I know a lot of people who were anxious about their retirement account diminishing last week. My advice – use this time to recalibrate. If you are going to need something in the next few years and have some savings, set it aside. Peace of mind will help you sleep at night. There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious. I get different data points than most and the data I’m seeing are not promising. I expect continuing rough water. We have never had a recession in the age of AI before. Employers are going to see what the technology can do.

Here is a passage from The War on Normal People that seems very relevant today:

“If you look at the histories of layoffs, they maintain a fairly normal pace until a recession hits. Then employers go wild looking for efficiencies and throwing people overboard.

The real test of the impact of automation will come in the next downturn. Companies will look to replace their call centers and customer service departments with artificial intelligence and hybrid bot-worker arrangements . . . Large companies will question why their accounting and legal bills are so high. And on and on. Cost-cutting knives will come out, turbocharged by new automated tools. Productivity will then shoot up in the worst way possible as companies accomplish the same tasks with many fewer workers. Our public sector will also be faced with dramatic new needs even as tax revenues decrease.”

There are going to be opportunities in the times ahead. The key is to make it there.

Forward is growing as people look for different leadership – see what we are doing in your state. Also this week, I talk about AI and the economy with Nihal Mehta, an experienced AI investor.