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Friday, June 5, 2020, jobs numbers for May far eclipsed economists’ expectations, showing strong signs that we are beginning to get America back to work. The U.S. economy added more than 2.5 million jobs in May, versus what was expected to be a 7.5 million job loss. The month of May saw the greatest number of jobs created in a single month on record.

Also, President Donald J. Trump signed the “Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act of 2020” (H.R. 7010) that enacts important changes to the Paycheck Protection Program that will provide more flexibility and relief for small businesses. Below you will find additional information.

· Fact Sheet – Jobs Report Shows Strong Signs Americans Are Getting Back to Work (see below)
· President Trump Marks the Beginning of the Greatest Comeback in American History (see below)
· Council on Economic Advisers – Trouncing Expectations by 10 Million Jobs, the Labor Market’s Comeback Has Begun (see below)
· What You Need To Know – President Trump’s Paycheck Protection Program is Delivering for Small Businesses and Workers (see below)
· Statement by U.S. Secretary of Labor Scalia on the May Jobs Report (here ([link removed][UNIQID]) )
· Statement by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross (here ([link removed][UNIQID]) )
· U.S. Department of Labor Marks 100th Anniversary of Women’s Bureau (here ([link removed][UNIQID]) )
Fact Sheet – Jobs Report Shows Strong Signs Americans Are Getting Back to Work
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Jobs numbers for May far eclipsed economists’ expectations, showing strong signs that we are beginning to get America back to work.

MAY JOBS NUMBERS
· The U.S. economy added more than 2.5 million jobs in May, versus what was expected to be a 7.5 million job loss.
o 225,000 manufacturing, 464,000 construction, and 1.2 million leisure & hospitality jobs were all added in May.
o The number of workers who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 2.7 million in May.
· May saw the greatest number of jobs created in a single month on record.
· The unemployment rate actually fell from 14.7 percent to 13.3 percent, while it was expected to rise to nearly 20%.

GETTING AMERICANS BACK TO WORK
· May’s report makes clear that the President’s efforts to restart the economy and bring back jobs are having an impact as we begin to recover.
· The President implemented the Paycheck Protection Program to keep Americans employed and small businesses on their feet.
o Senior economic correspondent at The New York Times Neil Irwin noted ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “Have to think the May employment numbers count as a strong win for PPP supporters.”
· The President also worked to increase access to disaster loans for small businesses and make it easier for them to access relief programs.
· President Trump released the Open Up America Again guidelines to help states safely reopen our economy.
· As we continue to recover from the pandemic, the President will continue implementing pro-growth policies to get American businesses and workers back on their feet.
President Trump Marks the Beginning of the Greatest Comeback in American History
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“It is now time for us to work together as we rebuild, renew, and recover the great promise of America." – President Trump

THE GREAT AMERICAN COMEBACK
· As President Trump laid out, Friday, June 5, 2020 marked a monumental day for our country as we begin to lead the greatest comeback in American history.
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Today is, probably, if you think of it, the greatest comeback in American history, but it’s not going to stop here.”
· May’s jobs report smashed expectations, showing millions of jobs gained and the unemployment rate dropping when all the experts predicted the worst.
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “They thought the number would be a loss of 9 million jobs, and it was a gain of almost 3 million jobs.”
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “The job surge that we’re seeing right now is widespread. Leisure and hospitality added 1.2 million jobs. Construction jobs are up—listen to this: 464,000. Education and Health Services rose 424,000. Retail trade is up 368,000.”
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Manufacturing, which we had up to 600,000 jobs prior to the plague, manufacturing rose to 225,000 jobs.”
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “We also smashed expectations on the unemployment rate. The prediction was that the unemployment rate would rise to over 20%. And instead, it dropped to around a little more than 13%.”

REBUILDING AND RENEWING OUR ECONOMY
· President Trump brought our economy to historic highs before the coronavirus and he is the only one that can do it again.
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. We had the greatest economy in the history of the world. And that strength let us get through this horrible pandemic.”
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “We’re going to be back there. I think we’re going to actually be back higher next year than ever before. And the only thing that can stop us is bad policy.”
· President Trump has taken decisive action to help families hurt by the coronavirus and get Americans back to work.
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I want to finish by saying to save the economy, we passed several critical legislation, totaling many trillions of dollars. … We’re set up to do more, if we want. I think we should.”
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “We made Americans sure of themselves, and we took care of families, we gave benefits, and we sent $1,200 to every individual making less than $75,000 and 4,000 -- almost -- dollars to every family of four earning less than $150,000.”
· To build on these efforts, President Trump signed legislation on Friday, June 5, 2020 making important changes to the Paycheck Protection Program – which has helped save tens of millions of jobs already.
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Now, I’m going to sign legislation to make important changes to the PPP that will especially help restaurants, hotels, and other businesses that have been very hard hit by the virus. This is going to make it 24 months.”
Council on Economic Advisers – Trouncing Expectations by 10 Million Jobs, the Labor Market’s Comeback Has Begun
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May Employment Situation report shows that the United States economy added 2.5 million jobs last month, and the unemployment rate fell from 14.7 percent to 13.3 percent.

Employment increased significantly in leisure and hospitality (1.2 million), construction (464,000), education and health services (424,000), retail trade (368,000), and manufacturing (225,000). These job gains surprised forecasters, given many States were only beginning to reopen their economies during the reports’ survey reference periods (the week/pay period that includes May 12). The median of all private sector forecasts predicted 7.5 million job losses in May and an unemployment rate of 19.2 percent.

Rapid job growth as the coronavirus is contained and States open up should not come as a surprise. A poll ([link removed][UNIQID]) conducted from April 27 through May 4 asked laid-off workers if they expected to be rehired by their most recent employers after State stay-at-home orders are lifted. The vast majority of laid-off workers (77 percent) said it was likely that they would be rehired by their most recent employers. This survey result is echoed in May’s employment data, just as CEA explained ([link removed][UNIQID]) it was in April’s data.

There were 15.3 million people on temporary layoff in May, in addition to an estimated 4.9 million people who had temporarily lost their jobs but were counted as employed but “not at work for other reasons.” Including all those who were potentially on temporary layoff, 78.2 percent of unemployed persons in May were on temporary layoff—well above the 13.3 percent average over the 12 months before this March.
Beyond workers remaining attached to their employers, another sign that job growth will continue is May’s jump in average weekly hours—indicating pent-up demand. Increasing hours can be a sign that employers need to hire more workers to meet this demand. For all private sector employees, average weekly hours increased by 0.5 to 34.7 hours—the highest level since the series began in 2006. For production and non-supervisory employees, this measure increased by 0.6 to 34.1 hours—the highest level in 19 years.

Further job losses were expected in the May report because initial Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims, though falling, remain elevated. Yesterday, the Department of Labor reported that 1.9 million people filed initial UI claims in the week ending May 30. Even with 4.6 million initial claims over the two weeks ending May 23, the number of people receiving UI, as measured by continuing claims, declined by 3.4 million over that time. As the figure below shows, weekly continuing claims have tracked the number of unemployed persons reported in the monthly Employment Situation report, assuming a constant rate of change between the months.

By May 23, the gap between weekly continuing claims and cumulative initial UI claims since the beginning of COVID-related job losses had grown to 19.6 million. Some of this difference may be accounted for by individuals applying for traditional UI instead of the new Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, either by mistake or because of State requirements. However, the widening gap between initial UI claims and continuing claims, along with the 2.5 million jobs added in May, show that laid off Americans are returning to work.


For workers to count as unemployed, they must have searched for work during the last four weeks or be on temporary layoff. If neither of these apply, the worker is counted as out of the labor force. States waived the traditional work search requirement for UI, so some workers on UI who do not expect to be called back to work may not count as unemployed. Yet the labor market flows for May show that there was not an elevated level of workers dropping out of the labor force directly. Flows from employment to not in the labor force were 4.4 million from April to May, in line with the average over the 12 months before this March (4.7 million). Furthermore, from April to May, 2.8 million more people moved from unemployment to employment than moved from employment to unemployment.


Other, more rapid indicators of labor market strength show the economic recovery has accelerated since mid-May. Gasoline demand has recovered over half of the loss from its pandemic-low, indicating Americans are driving more. Workplace visits are up more than 40 percent from its pandemic-low. And, as the figure below shows, 73 percent of small businesses are now open—up from its pandemic-low of 52 percent right before the April report’s reference periods.
While May’s jobs report is unquestionably positive news for America’s economic comeback, there is still much more room to grow. Three months ago in February, the unemployment rate was 9.8 percentage points lower (3.5 percent) and there were 19.6 million more jobs. But the economy beating expectations by 10 million jobs and the unemployment rate falling instead of rising show that the transition back to strong economic growth began earlier than many expected. With more States easing restrictions on work, strong attachments between laid off workers and their employers, and growing labor demand, there is much reason to expect the American economy to add even more jobs in June.


What You Need To Know – President Trump’s Paycheck Protection Program is Delivering for Small Businesses and Workers
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Friday, June 6, 2020, President Trump signed legislation enacting important changes to the Paycheck Protection Program that will provide more flexibility and relief for small businesses.

· The Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act signed into law by the President includes key changes to help small businesses, such as extending the time they have to use the funds to 24 weeks.
o PRESIDENT TRUMP: “I'm going to sign legislation to make important changes to the PPP that will especially help restaurants, hotels, and other businesses that have been very hard hit by the virus.”
o SECRETARY MNUCHIN: “I want to especially thank the Senate and the House for working with us in another example of overwhelming bipartisan support that is helping American business and American workers.
o SECRETARY MNUCHIN: “[President Trump] invited in leaders from the restaurant industry and the hotel industry. These are two areas that had been especially hard hit. The restaurants’ number-one ask was extending the PPP for 24 weeks, and this legislation delivers on this.”

Friday, June 6, 2020, jobs report showed, PPP is delivering real results in helping small businesses stay on their feet and keep workers on payrolls.


· THE WASHINGTON POST ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “It was, as economist Chris Rupkey emailed, the ‘biggest forecast miss of our life.’ What the heck happened? In short, give some credit to the government relief efforts, especially the Paycheck Protection Program, for bringing back jobs.”

· THE NEW YORK TIMES ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “More than half of the month’s job gains — 1.4 million — were in restaurants and bars, many of which received assistance under the government’s Paycheck Protection Program. Friday’s report suggests that program, along with other elements of the government’s response, helped offset at least some of the economic damage caused by the shutdown, which should allow for a faster rebound.”

· CNBC ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “’The good news is this looks like this was rehiring people coming off the temporary unemployment,’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “It’s also the PPP [Payroll Protection Program]. Those PPP jobs are also coming through in leisure and hospitality.”

· BLOOMBERG ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “Economists’ models probably failed to fully take into account the government’s relief response, specifically the Paycheck Protection Program that provides firms funding to keep workers on staff.”

· FIVE THIRTY EIGHT ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “Almost 50 percent of the job gains for the entire economy were in the leisure and hospitality sector, which had cratered in March and April. This suggests that government efforts may have protected jobs — particularly through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which allowed small businesses to receive forgivable loans if they spent the money on direct expenses like payroll — and that the first few weeks of states’ reopening allowed some workers to return to their jobs.”

· MARKETWATCH ([link removed][UNIQID]) : “[Senior Research Analyst at Beacon Policy Advisor Ben Koltun] also noted that Friday’s jobs report can be attributed to the government intervention so far, such as the Paycheck Protection Program and the government transfers to buoy personal income.”

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