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Daily News Brief

April 10, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s sudden reversal on tariff policy, as well as...

  • A meeting of countries aiming to secure peace in Ukraine

  • U.S.-Russia talks in Istanbul

  • A reported Indian purchase of French fighter jets

 
 

Top of the Agenda

Trump announced a ninety-day pause on his custom reciprocal tariffs yesterday, but hiked levies on China to 125 percent. The reversal brought rates down to 10 percent for most U.S. trade partners. On social media, Trump said he had made the decision because dozens of countries had sought talks. The White House’s latest trade twist rallied the stock market after days of losses. It also widened the gap between Washington’s treatment of Beijing and other trade partners. This morning, European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union (EU) would pause its countermeasures to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs for ninety days and that they “want to give negotiations a chance.” 

 

The latest from the White House: 

  • Trump told reporters yesterday that ahead of his decision, he had also been watching activity in the bond markets. A selloff in U.S. Treasury bonds had accelerated on Tuesday night. 
  • His choice to spike rather than relax tariffs for China came after Beijing had announced new retaliation against previous U.S. duties. 
  • Trump plans to negotiate “bespoke” trade deals with individual countries, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Tariffs under consideration for sectors including lumber and pharmaceuticals would not be affected by yesterday’s pause, Bessent added. 

 

Where U.S.-China relations stand: 

  • Trump wrote that China had shown a “lack of respect…to the World’s Markets” as he announced the tariff hike. He later told reporters that he believed China was “in the process” of figuring out how to make a deal. 
  • A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said today that Trump’s trade war “will end in failure,” while the commerce ministry said “the door to dialogue is open” and “we hope the U.S. will meet China halfway.” 
  • Yesterday, the World Trade Organization estimated U.S.-China trade tensions could reduce bilateral goods trade by as much as 80 percent: “This tit-for-tat approach…could severely damage the global economic outlook.” 
 

“Washington may have forged the open, liberal rules-based order, but China has defined its next phase: protectionism, subsidization, restrictions on foreign investment, and industrial policy. To argue that the United States must reassert its leadership to preserve the rules-based system it established is to miss the point. China’s nationalist state capitalism now dominates the international economic order.”

—CFR President Michael Froman, Foreign Affairs

 

Germany’s Next Chapter

Germany's chancellor-in-waiting and leader of the Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) Friedrich Merz and co-leader of the Social Democratic party (SPD) Lars Klingbeil attend a press conference after reaching an agreement on their coalition government in Berlin, Germany, April 9, 2025.

Annegret Hilse/Reuters

The country’s recent election affects not only its domestic policies but also its NATO commitments and the broader European landscape. CFR expert Liana Fix and Eurasia Group’s Jan Techau unpacked the implications at this meeting.

 
 

Across the Globe

Ukraine’s “reassurance force” meets. Defense ministers of countries hoping to provide security after a potential peace deal in Ukraine are meeting today at NATO’s Brussels headquarters. Some thirty countries are attending. The meeting comes as Moscow has stalled on a proposed cease-fire deal backed by the United States.

 

U.S.-Russia talks. Envoys from both countries are holding an Istanbul meeting today that was slated to discuss the normalizing of their embassy operations and the potential return of direct flights. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that Ukraine is “absolutely not on the agenda.” Early today, Russia and the United States carried out a prisoner swap in Abu Dhabi: Russia released a U.S.-Russian dual national jailed on treason charges after donating money to a Ukrainian charity, while the United States released a dual German-Russian citizen who was jailed for allegedly exporting sensitive microelectronics to Russian military manufacturers. 

 

Germany’s coalition deal. Germany’s conservatives and center-left Social Democrats reached an official deal yesterday to govern in coalition. They pledged to seek a medium-term free trade deal with the United States, urge finalization of trade agreements between the EU and Mexico as well as Mercosur, “significantly” increase defense spending, and end federal admissions programs for refugees. 

 

France-India fighter jet deal. India’s government approved the roughly $7.4 billion purchase of twenty-six French Rafale marine fighter jets, unnamed senior officials told the Press Trust of India. Russia is typically India’s biggest weapons supplier, but that equipment flow has slowed as Russia was sanctioned over its war in Ukraine. India’s defense ministry did not immediately comment.

 

ICJ case on Sudan. Lawyers for Sudan argued at an International Court of Justice (ICJ) hearing today that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was breaking the Genocide Convention by supporting Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary fighters in Sudan’s civil war. The argument focused on 2023 RSF attacks against a tribe in West Darfur. The United States accused the RSF of genocide during the final days of the Joe Biden administration. The UAE has denied supporting the RSF and called the ICJ case a “baseless PR stunt.”

 

Fallout of failed DRC coup. Three U.S. citizens who had been jailed in the Democratic of Congo (DRC) and accused of participation in a failed coup attempt last May were transferred to the United States on Tuesday, according to court filings unsealed yesterday. They were originally sentenced to death in the DRC, though President Félix Tshisekedi reduced those sentences to life in prison on April 1. Qatar helped negotiate their repatriation, an unnamed diplomat told Bloomberg.

 

Scrutiny of Thai charges against academic. A Thailand court granted bail to a U.S. academic who has lived in the country for more than thirty years, a day after the U.S. government condemned his detention. Prosecutors had charged Paul Chambers with violating a law against criticizing the country’s monarchy for comments he made in an international webinar. The U.S. State Department urged Thailand to respect freedom of expression.

 

Israel, Turkey talk Syria. Israel and Turkey held talks in Azerbaijan yesterday about creating a deconfliction mechanism to prevent unwanted incidents in Syria, unnamed Turkish officials told multiple news outlets. Israel earlier this month struck an airbase in Syria where it accused Turkey of trying to build a “protectorate.” Turkey supports Syria’s new government, which has criticized Israeli incursions in the country.

 
 

How to Reduce the Trade Deficit

 Workers prepare to weld a steel tube at HCC, a company that uses parts to make combines, at the factory in Mendota, Illinois, U.S., February 21, 2025.

Vincent Alban//Reuters

Reducing imports is just one side of the equation. Another way is to increase exports. That means making U.S. products more attractive all over the world—and for that, you need trade partners, CFR expert Shannon O’Neil explains in this YouTube Short.

 
 

What’s Ahead

  • Today, India begins hosting its Global Technology Summit in New Delhi.

  • Today, G20 finance and central bank officials begin a meeting in South Africa.

  • Tomorrow, EU finance ministers meet in Brussels.

  • Tomorrow, Turkey begins hosting its annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum.

 
 

A Federal Reserve Banker Talks Economic Trends

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin attends a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington DC in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 9, 2025.

Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

Tariffs are just one of many interweaving factors that affect inflation and labor markets. President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Tom Barkin discussed broad economic trends earlier this month at CFR’s C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics.  

 
 

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