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Edited by: James Desio and Carter Hutchinson

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine public opinion of Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, casualties in the war in Ukraine, and the change in global energy demand.

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1. Thumbs Down on Tariffs

Topline: Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of tariffs, according to a recent CNN poll. AEI’s Michael Strain writes that the public’s negative perception of Trump’s tariffs could cause the president to change his trade policy.

Economic Outlook: Though tariffs are the Trump policy voters support least, other areas of Trump’s economic agenda also face significant disapproval from voters:

• 56 percent of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy.
• 52 percent of voters disapprove of his management of the federal budget.
• 51 percent of voters disapprove of his management of the federal government.

Looking to 2026: Strain suggests that economic damage from the trade war will lower Trump’s approval rating. If members of Congress are concerned about losing their seats in 2026 or 2028, they might be emboldened to push back against Trump. Business leaders and voters could follow.

“Trump’s trade war will fail at its goals of reviving domestic manufacturing employment, boosting output in the manufacturing sector, and reducing the trade deficit. We know this from many sources, including the results of his first-term trade policies.”—Michael Strain

2. What Russia Stands to Lose in Ukraine

Topline: US efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine have stalled. AEI’s Marc Thiessen assesses Russia’s losses in the war thus far, writing that in 2024 alone, 427,000 Russian soldiers were either killed or wounded.

• In 2024, Russian forces took a grand total of 1,609 square miles of territory, equivalent to about 15 percent of Haiti. Approximately 265 Russian soldiers were either killed or wounded per square mile of territory gained.
• Russia also loses 350 tank and artillery barrels each month but can only produce 20 replacements. At the current rate, Russia will run out of tanks sometime in 2026.

Conflict Comparison: The number of wounded or killed Russian soldiers in each month of 2024 is almost twice as many casualties as the United States suffered in over two decades of fighting in Afghanistan.

“The reality is that Russia does not have the troops or equipment to achieve Putin’s military aims in Ukraine. Putin’s economic position is even weaker than his battlefield position.”—Marc Thiessen

3. Energy Acceleration

Topline: Energy demand increased by 1.7 percent in the United States last year—the third most of any country featured. AEI’s Roger Pielke analyzes newly released data from the Global Energy Review 2025.

Rising Energy Needs: China and India saw the highest increases in energy demand, but demand increased globally in every nation featured—except for Japan. While the US, EU, and Japan’s demand for coal decreased, demand for coal increased everywhere else globally, particularly in China and India.

What About Renewables? Renewable energy satisfied the largest parts of demand increase in China and the US. Smaller shares of US demand were covered by natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy.

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