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CAN EUROPE STOP TRUMP AND PUTIN?  
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John Feffer
March 30, 2025
TomDispatch [[link removed]]

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_ The world can’t afford a European retreat into a fortress. The
European Union must unite with all like-minded countries against the
illiberal nationalists who are challenging universal values and
international law. _

,

 

The news of Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest surprised me.

It’s not that I doubted the former leader of the Philippines was
guilty of the horrific crimes detailed in his International Criminal
Court (ICC) arrest warrant
[[link removed]]. Duterte
himself boasted [[link removed]] quite
openly of the mass killings he’s been accused of. But I always
thought that the prospects of bringing that brutal, outspoken
politician to justice were remote indeed.

After all, Duterte’s daughter Sara is currently the vice president
of the Philippines and that country is no longer a member of the ICC.
On top of that, Duterte himself was so sure of his immunity that he
was running for mayor of the city of Davao. In mid-March, after
returning from campaigning in the Filipino community in Hong Kong, he
suffered the indignity of being arrested
[[link removed]] in
his own country.

Forgive me for saying this, but I just hadn’t thought the ICC was
still truly functioning, given that the leaders of the most powerful
countries on this planet — the United States, China, and Russia —
don’t give a fig about human rights or international law. Sure, the
ICC did issue high-profile arrest warrants for Russian leader
Vladimir Putin
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
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but no one expects those rogues to be taken into custody anytime soon.
And the impunity for the powerful has only become more entrenched now
that a convicted felon squats in the White House.

The specialty of the ICC has, of course, been arresting human-rights
abusers in truly weak or failed states like Laurent Gbagbo, former
president of Côte d’Ivoire, and Hashim Thaçi, former president of
Kosovo. With the world’s 31st largest economy, however, the
Philippines is no failed state. Still, without nuclear weapons or a
huge army, it’s no powerhouse either. Indeed, it was only when the
Philippines became ever weaker — because of a feud between President
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte (accused
of threatening to assassinate him
[[link removed]])
— that the ICC had a chance to grab its target and spirit him away
to The Hague to stand trial.

The arrest of Rodrigo Duterte might, in fact, seem like the exception
that proves the (new) rule. After all, the international community and
its institutions are currently facing a crisis of global proportions
with violations of international law becoming ever more commonplace in
this era of ascendant right-wing rogue states.

In 2014, Russia first grabbed
[[link removed]] Ukrainian
territory, launching an all-out invasion in 2022. Israel has committed
genocide in Gaza, sent troops into southern Lebanon, and expanded its
footprint
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Syria. President Trump has spoken repeatedly of seizing Greenland
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Canada
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the 51st state, and retaking the Panama Canal
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among other things. Small countries like Taiwan can’t sleep for fear
of a late-night visit from jackbooted thugs.

But then there’s Europe.

TRANSATLANTIC DIVERGENCE

In the wake of Donald Trump’s dramatic return to the stage as a bull
in the global china shop, European leaders have hastened to replace
the United States as the voice of liberal internationalist
institutions like the ICC. Of course, the U.S. was never actually a
member of the ICC, which suggests that Europe has always been more
connected to the rule of law than most American politicians. After
all, if Duterte had been sent to Washington today — not to mention
Beijing, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Moscow, or New Delhi — he would
undoubtedly have been feted as an exemplary law-and-order politico
rather than, as in The Hague, placed behind bars and put on trial.

This transatlantic divergence was only sharpened in mid-February when
Vice President J.D. Vance berated
[[link removed]] an
audience of Europeans at the Munich Security Conference, singling out
for criticism Europe’s support of feminism and pro-choice policies,
its rejection of Russian election interference (by overturning a
Kremlin-manipulated presidential election in Romania), and its refusal
to tolerate fascist and neo-fascist parties (shunning, among others,
Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD). By urging them to
worry more about internal challenges to “democracy” in Europe than
the challenges presented by either Russia or China, Vance was
effectively siding with illiberal adversaries against liberal allies.

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Buy the Book
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In a certain sense, however, he was also eerily on target: Europe does
indeed face all-too-many internal challenges to democracy. But they
come from his ideological compatriots there like Hungary’s Viktor
Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, and far-right political parties
like Germany’s AfD, as well as ultra-conservative cultural movements
that target immigrants, the LGBTQ community, and secular
multiculturalists.

Vance opposes mainstream European opinion, which has directly or
indirectly challenged Donald Trump’s MAGA proposals and policies, as
well as his rejection of the reality of climate change. Europe has, of
course, been stepping up its defense of Ukraine, remains committed to
promoting human rights, and adheres to democratic principles in the
form of regular electoral checks and balances, as well as safeguards
for civil society. Above all, unlike the Trump administration, it
continues to move forward on the European Green Deal and a program to
leave behind fossil fuels.

These were, of course, fairly uncontroversial positions until Trump
reentered the White House.

Can Europe sustain that fragile plant of liberalism during this harsh
winter of right-wing populism? Much depends on some risky bets. Will
U.S. foreign policy swing back in favor of democracy, human rights,
and transatlantic relations in four years? Will the weight of a
never-ending war, in the end, dislodge Vladimir Putin from the
Kremlin? Will Ukraine overcome its own internal divisions to become
part of a newly enlarged European Union (EU)? Will Bibi Netanyahu
someday become Duterte’s cellmate?

At the moment, unfortunately, it seems more likely that Europe will be
the last powerful holdout in a world entering a new political Dark
Age. A dismal scenario lurks on the horizon in which democracy and
human rights cling to existence somewhere within the walls of the
European Union, much as monasteries managed to preserve classical
learning a millennium ago.

EUROPE STEPS FORWARD

After Trump and Vance humiliated Volodymyr Zelensky during his White
House visit in February, an ideologically diverse range of European
leaders raced to support
[[link removed]] the Ukrainian leader
and his country. But defending democracy means all too little if that
defense remains largely verbal.

So, no longer being able to count on U.S. power or NATO security
guarantees in the age of Trump, European Union leaders have decided to
visit the gym and muscle up. Shortly after Zelensky’s meeting, the
EU readied a large military spending bill meant to contribute
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the “security of Europe as a whole, in particular as regards the
EU’s eastern border, considering the threats posed by Russia and
Belarus.” About $150 billion more would be invested in the military
budgets of member states. The EU will also relax debt limits
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allow nearly $700 billion in such additional spending over the next
four years.

Of course, in the past, Europe’s vaunted social democracy was
largely built on low defense spending and a reliance on Washington’s
security umbrella. That “peace dividend” saved EU member states a
huge chunk of money — nearly $400 billion
[[link removed]] every
year since the end of the Cold War — that could be applied to social
welfare and infrastructure expenses. Forcing NATO members to spend a
higher percentage of their gross domestic product on their militaries
is a dagger that both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are holding to
the throat of Europe’s social democracy. Germany can still afford to
engage in deficit spending for both guns and butter, but it presents a
distinct problem for countries like Belgium, France, Greece, Italy,
and Spain with high levels of government debt
[[link removed]].

And when it comes to Europe’s future, it’s not just a military
affair. While some European leaders have used intelligence
assessments
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focus on Putin’s territorial ambitions, others are more anxious
about Russia’s assault on their values. Fearful of the way the
illiberal values of Putin and Trump seem to overlap, Europeans have
cast the fate of Ukraine in the loftiest of terms: the defense of
democracy against fascism. However, given the connections between the
European far right and the Kremlin — thanks to Germany’s AfD, the
two French far-right parties (National Rally and Reconquest), and
Bulgaria’s Revival among others — the fight against fascism is now
taking place on the home front as well.

Europe is also defending democratic values in other ways. It has long
promoted
[[link removed]] DEI-like
programs, beginning with France’s diversity charter in 2004, while
the European Commission is committed to equality
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the LGBTQ community. In 2021, to promote universal values, the EU even
launched a program called Global Europe Human Rights and Democracy
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meant to support human rights defenders, the rule of law, and election
monitors across the planet. Typically, on the controversial topic of
Israel-Palestine, European countries have condemned
[[link removed]] the
Israeli government’s actions in Gaza and several have
even recognized
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(still-to-be-created) state of Palestine.

Semi-socialist, DEI-loving, human-rights-supporting, Israel-skeptical,
Europe is everything Donald Trump hates. Think of the EU, in fact, as
the global equivalent of his worst nightmare, a giant liberal arts
campus.

No wonder the MAGA crowd has the urge to cut the transatlantic cable
as a way of targeting its opponents both at home _and_ abroad.

EUROPE DIVIDED

But wait: the MAGA crowd doesn’t hate Europe quite as thoroughly as
it does Columbia University. After all, not all European leaders are
on board with social democracy, DEI, human rights, and Palestine. In
fact, in some parts of the continent, Trump and Vance are heroes, not
zeros.

Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, for instance, has long been a friend
and inspiration for Donald Trump. After all, he’s managed to
translate the illiberalism of Vladimir Putin — anti-democratic,
anti-LGBT, uber-nationalist — into a semi-democratic vernacular of
great appeal to an American far right that must negotiate a
significantly more complex political landscape than the one that
surrounds the Kremlin.

As Putin’s greatest acolyte, Orbán has worked overtime to undermine
a common European approach to Ukraine. He initially opposed aid to
Ukraine, a stance ultimately overcome by the pressure
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European leaders. He pushed for a watered-down version of the most
recent EU statement in support of that country, only to watch the
other 26 EU members pass it without him
[[link removed]].
And he’s rejected Ukrainian membership in the EU. Still, with
elections scheduled for 2026 and the opposition now outpolling
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Fidesz party, the days of one man holding the EU hostage may soon be
over.

While Orbán does have allies, most of them — like AUR in Romania
and the National Alliance in Latvia — are sniping from the sidelines
as part of the opposition. Several other far-right parties like the
ruling Fratelli d’Italia in Italy don’t share Orbán’s odd
affection for Putin. But if the AfD in Germany or the National Rally
in France were to win enough votes to take over their respective
governments, Europe’s political center of gravity could indeed
shift.

Such divisions extend to the question of EU expansion. Serbia’s
pro-Russian slant makes such a move unlikely in the near term and
Turkey is too autocratic to qualify, while both Bosnia and Georgia,
like Ukraine, are divided. It’s hard to imagine Ukraine itself
overcoming its internal divisions — or its war-ravaged economy —
to meet Europe’s membership requirements, no matter the general
enthusiasm inside that country
[[link removed]] and
elsewhere in Europe for bringing it in from the cold.

Nonetheless, EU expansion is what Putin fears the most: a democratic,
prosperous union that expands its border with his country and inspires
Russian activists with its proclamations of universal values. No small
surprise, then, that he’s tried to undermine the EU by supporting
[[link removed]] far-right
and Euroskeptical movements. Yet the combination of the war in Ukraine
and the reelection of Donald Trump may be undoing all his efforts.

The experience of feeling trapped between two illiberal superpowers
has only solidified popular support for the EU and its institutions.
In a December 2024 poll
[[link removed]],
trust in the EU was at its highest level in 17 years, particularly in
countries that are on the waiting list like Albania and Montenegro.
Moreover, around 60% of Europeans support providing military aid to
Kyiv and future membership for Ukraine.

For increasing numbers of those outside its borders, Europe seems like
a beacon of hope: prosperous democracies pushing back against the
onslaught of Trump and Putin. And yet, even if Europe manages to stave
off the challenges of its home-grown far right, it may not, in the
end, prove to be quite such a beacon. After all, it has its
own anti-migrant policies
[[link removed]] and
uses trade agreements to secure access to critical raw materials
and punish countries like Indonesia
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have the temerity to employ their own mineral wealth to rise higher in
the global value chain. Although, unlike Putin’s Russia and
Trump’s America, it’s doing its best to shift to a clean-energy
economy, it’s done so all too often by dirtying the nests of other
countries to get the materials it needs for that shift.

Whatever its resemblance to a liberal arts college, Europe is anything
but a non-profit institution and can sometimes seem more like a
fortress than a beacon. As was true of those medieval monasteries that
preserved the classical learning of the ages but also owned land and
serfs, supplied markets with addictive products like chartreuse, and
subjected their members to torture and imprisonment
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saving civilization can have a darker side.

EXITING THE DARK AGE

The International Criminal Court’s arrest of Rodrigo Duterte should
be a powerful reminder that justice is possible even in the most
unjust of times. Brutal leaders almost always sow the seeds of their
own demise. Putin’s risky moves have mobilized virtually all of
Europe against him. In antagonizing country after country, Trump is
similarly reinforcing liberal sentiment
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Canada, in Mexico, and throughout Europe.

If the world had the luxury of time, holing up in the modern
equivalent of monasteries and waiting out the barbarians would be a
viable strategy. But climate change cares little
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extended timelines. And don’t forget the nuclear doomsday clock
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another pandemic
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across the globe. Meanwhile, Trump and his allies are destroying
things at such a pace that the bill for “reconstruction” grows
more astronomical by the day.

The gap between the fall of the Roman Empire and the first glimmers of
the Renaissance was about 1,000 years. No one has that kind of time
anymore. So, while long-term strategies to fight the right are good,
those standing up to the bullies also need to act fast and forcefully.
The world can’t afford a European retreat into a fortress and the
equivalent of monastic solitude. The EU must unite with all
like-minded countries against the illiberal nationalists who are
challenging universal values and international law.

The ICC set a good example with its successful seizure of Duterte.
Let’s all hope, for the good of the world, that The Hague will have
more global scofflaws in its jail cells — and soon.

Copyright 2025 John Feffer

_Follow TomDispatch on Twitter
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Books, John Feffer’s new dystopian novel, Songlands
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final one in his Splinterlands series), Beverly Gologorsky’s
novel Every Body Has a Story
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Tom Engelhardt’s A Nation Unmade by War
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as well as Alfred McCoy’s In the Shadows of the American Century:
The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power
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Dower’s The Violent American Century: War and Terror Since World
War II
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Ann Jones’s They Were Soldiers: How the Wounded Return from
America’s Wars: The Untold Story
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_JOHN FEFFER, a TomDispatch regular
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author of the dystopian novel Splinterlands
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director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy
Studies. Frostlands
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a Dispatch Books original, is volume two of
his Splinterlands series, and the final novel in the trilogy
is Songlands
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He has also written Right Across the World: The Global Networking of
the Far-Right and the Left Response
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* European Union
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* EU
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* Donald Trump
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* Vladimir Putin
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* international law
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* democracy
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