GOOD AFTERNOON & welcome to my weekly update no.306
A big flurry of activity prior to the Easter break. As well as the Chancellor’s Spring Statement we had a wonderful fundraising gala dinner for the new Royal Surrey Cancer and Surgical Innovation Centre and more progress in sorting out mobile phone coverage.
WHAT’S GOING ON IN WESTMINSTER
STATEMENT WITH NO SPRING Last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented her much-anticipated Spring Statement. In general, there were few surprises because the ground had been well-laid for all the bad news. I was hoping for some radical welfare reforms which I wrote about in the Sunday Times but was disappointed: as a result there is a very tight margin in the numbers meaning that if markets turn against us or Trump’s tariffs impact GDP, she will have to do more spending cuts or tax rises in the autumn as the Institute for Fiscal Studies bleakly warned. Nor was there any recognition we are likely to spend more on defence: as Trump’s comments about Putin today show, a ceasefire in Ukraine seems a long way off.
TARIFF TURMOIL How should the UK respond if Trump puts tariffs on our exports as is now widely expected? In 2024, the UK exported £8.3 billion worth of cars to the US. Whilst reports suggest the UK is ready to retaliate, I think that would be unwise. US goods exports to the UK account for less than a half of one percent of US GDP so Trump would brush them off like an annoying fly. But more significant is what the OBR say it would do to our economy. If we don’t retaliate it could cause it to contract by 0.6% but if we do it would be a full 1%. That could easily be the difference between having a recession or not.
MIGRATION This week, the UK is hosting a two-day summit on illegal migration. Speaking earlier today, the Prime Minister outlined his strategy for tackling the issue. I support the government’s recent decision to review how human rights law is applied to migration cases as a way of frustrating the deportation of foreign criminals but why on earth did they scrap the Rwanda scheme? Surely deterrence is part of the solution. Labour opposed Rwanda as a ‘gimmick’ in opposition, mainly to hold the Labour family together. Now they are in power they must realise what a mistake that was.
JOBS OF THE FUTURE I recently sat down for a chat with Jimmy McLoughlin on his podcast Jimmy’s Jobs of the Future to discuss a variety of topics, including tech, China, democracy, and Britain’s place in the world. Some of my comments about how AI will revolutionise future jobs – specifically accountants – ruffled a few feathers, but my point stands: AI is going to replace a number of jobs whether we like it or not. Enjoy the interview which is a lot more fun than normal fayre!
WHAT’S GOING ON LOCALLY
MOBILE NETWORKS PROGRESS Good progress: two further meetings upcoming this week with the mobile networks. And last week I took the opportunity just before the Spring Statement to raise atrocious mobile coverage across Godalming and Ash with Sir Chris Bryant, Minister of State for Data Protection and Telecoms. See my question, heard by the PM and Chancellor, in a packed House of Commons below....
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