Dear John,

In the week where group chats were leaked, welfare was cut, and Istanbul descended in protests, here is your Weekend Wire…

Spring cuts and autumn rises?

The much trailed Spring statement included few surprises, with cuts to welfare and international aid providing the headroom for Reeves to boost defence spending whilst adhering to her self-imposed fiscal rules.

Whilst it is true that Reeves has had a remarkably difficult inheritance from the Conservatives, rapidly escalating geopolitical risks and a global economy teetering on the edge of crisis, it was clear from the subsequent press coverage that her statement had managed to upset almost everyone. From the Guardian to the Daily Mail, commentators expressed their disappointment at a statement that for those on the left, punishes disabled people and threatens to push hundreds of thousands into poverty, and on the right, stoked fears of tax raises in the Autumn Budget.

The Guardian summarised the feeling of many (including on the Labour backbenches) by criticising Reeves' budget as ‘austerity in disguise’. According to official government analysis, Reeves’ changes will see more than 3 million households lose their benefits and will push 250,000 people into relative poverty by 2029-30. Meanwhile the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that it is now likely that taxes will be raised in the Autumn after the Chancellor's statement left little headroom for further economic shocks and global instability. As if to further illustrate their point, shortly after Reeves was finished speaking, President Trump announced a punitive 25% tariff on all cars entering the American market from abroad.

Doyle or no Doyle?

The Government was rocked further on Friday morning by the shock announcement that long-standing Starmer aide and Director of Communications Matthew Doyle would be standing down with immediate effect. The Labour government has been criticised for its poor performance at communicating its policies since the summer, with many backbenchers confused at the timing of the decision to cut the winter fuel allowance and the failure to publicise the positives of the renters and workers bills respectively.

Doyle’s departure opens the door for James Lyons, a former TikTok communications chief and journalist, to become the strategy Director of Communications. Lyons is seen amongst Labour circles as being a favourite of Morgan McSweeney.

Signalling incompetence

Maybe you have had the embarrassment of accidentally  texting the wrong person something completely inappropriate, but have you ever sent classified messages about an upcoming strike on Houthi’s in Yemen?

In a world of uncertainty and incompetence, it seems Pete Hegseth is making a good go at being cock-up commander-in-chief. The staggering revelations revealed by Jeff Goldberg, the Editor of The Atlantic, that he had been added to a private group chat of top ranking members of the Trump administration shocked the world. The Signal group chat consisted of Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and of course Defence Secretary Pete “germs aren’t real” Hegseth.

The messages are remarkable for a number of reasons;

1. Firstly, they reveal a complete disregard for security protocols. Much has been made of the concerns of other Five Eyes (the defence intelligence sharing organisation which includes the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) members regarding the safety of sharing classified information with the Trump administration, those fears now appear well founded.
2. Secondly, the conversation reveals the utter contempt amongst the Trump administration for Europe. The revelations of the chat will likely be a wake up call for any European leader who remained under any illusions that the antipathy towards Europe among Trump’s top officials  was for show.
3. Finally, the chat reveals the power dynamics between Trump and his administration, it appears as though JD Vance at one point questions whether Trump had any understanding of the situation, but is immediately convinced that as Trump had given it the green-light, it must go ahead. There appears to be a complete unwillingness to question the decisions of the President, it is all very ‘Emperor's new clothes’…

Party like its 1899

Another story from the other side of the pond that I think has not received the  attention it should have has been a new piece of legislation introduced in Florida. The new bill would allow children as young as 14 to work overnight shifts on school days, filling the gap in the labour market left by Republicans efforts to enact mass deportation. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is in favour of loosening pesky child labour laws and his Senate approved a bill that would end a requirement that pupils work no more than 30 hours a week whilst also ending their right to 30-minute meal breaks.

The bill aiming to take America one step back towards the Victorian age comes alongside another bill currently passing through Florida’s legislature which seeks to offer employees the opportunity to work for less than the minimum wage. Across America, as in the UK, job security is increasingly volatile and many applicants apply for low-paid roles. This new legislation would allow employers to exploit those desperate for a job. Thank god for the work of unions in Britain and Europe for their work over the last hundred or so years fighting for our workers rights.

Tragedy in Myanmar

At time of writing, reports are still coming in about the immense tragedy in Myanmar. At around noon local time on Friday, a huge 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck the south east Asian nation with the death toll mounting by the hour. The disaster was also felt in neighbouring Thailand where an incomplete high-rise collapsed with scores of construction workers still unaccounted for. The ruling military junta in Myanmar have made a rare plea for international aid.

Istanbully

Just over a month ago I was fortunate enough to experience the beauty of Istanbul for the first time. Unfortunately in the past week the city and the rest of Turkey has seen a host of protests after their President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrested his main political rival and the Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu. Erdoğan has long undermined freedom and rights in Turkey, muzzling the free-press and arresting those who he fears might challenge his 22 -year grip on power.

However, the decision to arrest İmamoğlu on trumped up charges of fraud is a large escalation of his authoritarian instincts. İmamoğlu was the front-runner for becoming the Presidential candidate for the opposition CHP Party and was seen as the largest political threat that Erdoğan had faced since entering office. A remarkable 15 million Turks took part in the first CHP primary for choosing their Presidential candidate on Sunday to show support for the arrested Mayor, whilst thousands have taken to the streets to protest across the country. Thousands of protesters and journalists have been arrested by the government in response to the civil unrest, including the BBC reporter, Mark Lowen.

The developments come at a unique time for Turkey, not only does Erdoğan feel emboldened by the isolationism and authoritarian instincts of the Trump administration but Turkey’s seasoned army, the second-largest in NATO,  is seen as vital for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine by the European Union. The European Commission in Brussels has warned Erdoğan to ‘uphold democratic values’ and reminded the country that its candidate status for becoming a member of the EU rested on the holding of free and fair elections. İmamoğlu was officially announced as the CHP candidate for the 2028 Presidential elections despite remaining in jail.

Beyond threatening Turkey’s fragile democracy, the move by Erdoğan has severely damaged Turkey’s economy. The first three days after the initial arrest of İmamoğlu saw the Turkish stockmarket fall by 16% and the Turkish lira hit a record low against the dollar. In an attempt to calm the markets, stock market regulators have banned short selling and the central bank has sold $26 billion of their $97 billion of foreign currency to protect the value of the lira. With Turkey’s economy and political system in chaos it remains to be seen whether Erdoğan can weather the storm or whether this is perhaps the beginning of the end for him and his government.

Want growth? Call the EU 

Rachel Reeves confirmed that the 2025 growth estimate for the UK has been halved to 1% from 2% by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and stated that she was unsatisfied with the forecast. Whilst outlining the government's plans to increase growth, the Chancellor did not mention the potential increase in economic growth across the country which can be achieved by removing trade barriers between the EU and the UK.

Independent research undertaken by Frontier Economics published earlier this year suggests that a common sense deal between the EU and the UK could boost the UK economy by up to 2.2%, more than five times what the OBR's estimated benefits from the Government's planning reforms cited by the Chancellor today.

Popular with the public

A YouGov poll commissioned by Best for Britain found that 46% of respondents think a new trade deal with the UK’s largest market is a better way to grow the economy, thereby boosting public finances, compared to 28% who think cutting benefits is the way to go.

What is mightier? Le Pen or the sword?

Keep an eye across the channel on Monday, as French judges decide whether Marine Le Pen is guilty of embezzling funds from the European Parliament. If found guilty, the far right front runner to replace Emmanuel Macron as France’s President will be banned from holding any public office for the next five years.

With the next Presidential election planned for 2027, a guilty verdict will end Le Pen’s hopes of becoming President. If found guilty, Le Pen is likely to be replaced by party president, Jordan Bardella but it remains to be seen whether the 29-year-old can maintain the stratospheric rise of the far-right populist party that Le Pen has engineered since taking over the party's leadership from her father.

Cringe Column 

I hope you have a wonderful weekend and don’t go spilling any national secrets!

Joshua Edwicker

Content Officer

Best for Britain