| Concerned Veterans for America has been vocal on the war in Ukraine. We believe it is past time for a negotiated peace deal.
CVA’s Strategic Director, John Byrnes wrote a piece for Foreign Policy, arguing that a negotiated settlement in Ukraine would end the hell of war:
A negotiated settlement in Ukraine could end the hell of war. In 1993, as a U.S. Marine, I deployed to Somalia, where I saw the worst human suffering that I have ever witnessed. During an ongoing civil war, one faction had weaponized famine among the civilian population, adding to the devastation of combat. It was a humanitarian crisis as a weapon of mass slaughter. Deployed to Iraq a decade later as an Army National Guardsman, I found myself treating potentially fatal wounds to civilians and soldiers alike, with just a few hours of “combat lifesaving training” behind me. In Afghanistan, I not only handled the remains of fallen comrades—up close and personal—but I saw the ruins of rural villages devastated by modern Soviet weapons in the 1980s. William Tecumseh Sherman once said, “war is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.” This is often credited more simply and colorfully as “War is Hell.” Those of us who have been to war, who have seen and felt and smelled it, know this firsthand.
The people of Ukraine are going through hell. Even with what I’ve seen in war, it’s hard for me to conceive of the sheer scale of human suffering in Ukraine since the war began three years ago. An estimated one million people have been killed or wounded. This includes more than 250,000 soldiers and nearly 30,000 Ukrainian civilians killed. Almost all of the fighting has occurred on or over Ukrainian territory. Russia has a three to one advantage in population, a tenfold advantage in GDP, and thousands of nuclear weapons. Initial estimates show that Ukraine has likely lost 2% of its total population and 4% of its male population during the conflict versus approximately 0.1% and 0.3% for Russia. Ukraine’s success, however limited, has been dependent on military aid from the United States ($66.5 billion out of $117 billion congressionally authorized funds) and from Western Europe (combined contributions totaling over $50 billion).
These facts lead to several conclusions. Russia clearly has the upper hand in the ongoing war, especially in an attritional stalemate. It is almost impossible that Ukraine can militarily evict Russia from all its pre-war territory, even with continued Western military and financial aid. Western aid however is finite, with military stocks dwindling and domestic economic priorities requiring attention in both the U.S. and Europe. Ukrainian accession to NATO is also off the table. If Ukrainian membership remains a stated option, Russia will continue to fight. If NATO accepts Ukraine as a member before the war’s end, Russia would certainly consider itself at war with NATO, escalating the chances of direct confrontation and even combat between two nuclear powers. Post-war Ukrainian NATO membership would similarly increase Russia’s incentive to keep fighting and would permanently increase the risk of a NATO-Russia conflict.
The hell of war would continue.
Read more here. |
