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By John Delaney
May 28, 2020
As often happens in politics, those debating how to reopen the economy have dug in on extreme positions and ignored the data. The two prevailing positions are that we should either open the economy immediately and return to life as normal, or keep the economy in total lockdown until a vaccine arrives. Both are equally ridiculous, and the truth is somewhere in between. Finding the middle ground requires examining the data and incorporating lessons learned. Anyone who looks at the facts is likely to come to one conclusion: It’s time to reopen, carefully and with exceptions.
So what are the facts? This virus disproportionately harms older Americans. It is estimated that upward of 50% of deaths have been in nursing homes. Roughly 30% have been people over 65 not in nursing homes, and the other 20% is everyone else, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. That means roughly 3% of all nursing-home residents have died of Covid-19, versus 0.06% of people over 65 not in nursing homes and 0.01% of the rest of the population. If we separated the generally healthy population under 65 from the medically vulnerable under 65 the numbers would be even more stark. This set of facts about who is most vulnerable must inform our approach to reopening.
Other facts: Social distancing has worked, the health-care system is better prepared than expected, and medical innovation is coming quickly. Distancing prevented health systems from being overwhelmed. That bought time to prepare hospitals, develop testing (initially a national embarrassment), and learn a lot about this disease.
Thanks to the heroic work of health-care workers, most hospitals now have enough capacity. In many communities, cases are on a downward trend, but state and local governments need continued financial support. Collaboration among private industry, governments and nonprofits is driving innovation at unprecedented rates. Modified regulations that allow nurses to practice to the full extent of their license and expand the use of telemedicine should become the norm.
The next important fact is that mistakes are likely. Historically the American willingness to try new things has been a strength. Some regions may reopen too quickly and others may reopen too slowly, but we should root for everyone to succeed. Prior generations have faced graver threats, but they confronted them as a unified nation.
Contrary to what many believe about a partisan battle over reopening, the different approaches defy normal political categories. One of the governors moving to reopen the economy in a smart way is Jared Polis, the Democratic governor of Colorado. One of the more cautious governors has been Republican Larry Hogan of Maryland, whose strategy has been appropriate for his state.
Then there’s a fact of life that is always present but seldom acknowledged, which is that these are decisions about managing risk. There is risk in everything, and the trick is figuring out how much to tolerate. Locking down was the right call, but the longer the lockdowns last, the higher the rates of depression, domestic abuse and suicide. Students are missing out on learning. Families are facing economic ruin. The federal government’s debt is soaring. This isn’t a time for recklessness or extreme caution—just responsibility.
America needs a healthy population and a healthy economy. If we don’t have both, we won’t have either. We have to be willing to try new things and be ready to reverse course if necessary. We need a transparent and data-driven scorecard that evolves with new inputs and guides behavior. Urban, suburban and rural areas will need to tailor their solutions to the facts on the ground.
Some steps are common sense: wearing masks, employee screening at nursing homes, limits on large gatherings, restrictions and isolation focused on those who are sick or high risk, expanded testing capacity, encouraging people to download tracing apps and so on. All this can happen while people start to resume normal activities with increased precautions.
The loss of life caused by Covid-19 has been one of the great tragedies of our time and has made existing health care and socioeconomic inequities even worse. This experience should remind us to be both compassionate and data-driven—but also courageous, humble and united in making decisions.
Mr. Delaney founded and was CEO of two publicly traded companies. He represented Maryland’s sixth congressional district, 2013-19, and was a candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
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