No images? Click here
Weekend Reads
Syria’s long civil war drew in the United States, Russia, Israel, Turkey, and numerous other nations and groups in the Middle East. But with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship, the region is undergoing a dramatic shift. Washington’s next move will be critical.
Michael Doran, Can Kasapoğlu, and Zineb Riboua discussed what’s next for Syria and how the US can work with regional partners to defend its strategic interests. Their key takeaways are below.
Watch the event, listen to the podcast, or read the transcript.
Key Insights
1. Israel’s response succeeded in neutralizing Syria’s strategic missile capabilities and weapons of mass destruction in the short term. But long-term challenges remain.
“There was one big elephant in the room that is not in the room anymore: [Syria’s] strategic weapons systems and WMDs, weapons of mass destruction. . . . Although it is not making the headlines right now, Syria is not a party to the Biological Weapons Convention. It signed but never ratified that. I think this should be one of the high priorities of the West when dealing with the new rulers of Syria. The strategic weapons systems outlook also pertains to ballistic missile capabilities of the Syrian Arab Army. As far as we know, and as far as we track, the Israeli Defense Forces’ preventive operations during the fall of Assad . . . degraded [this capability] to an extent that it is not an operational threat right now.”
— Can Kasapoğlu
2. The United States needs to manage emerging friction between Israel and Turkey, its two most important allies in the region.
“We have only two allies in the Middle East who are capable of projecting power beyond their borders, and that’s Israel and Turkey. So now our two allies are bumping up against each other in Syria. So to me, those are the two most important tasks that our foreign policy has right now. One, finish the job with regard to the Iranians because we have a window of opportunity not just to weaken the resistance axis, but to eliminate it. And then number two, we have to mediate between the Turks and the Israelis.”
— Michael Doran
3. Washington needs to assert its leadership to achieve its strategic goals.
“Well, there’s a lack of American leadership, which is the problem. The only power in the world that can work constructively with the Turks to stabilize Syria is the United States. I don’t mean to say that the United States has to be on the ground or that it has to do all of the work, but it’s the only one who can pull together a coalition to represent the concerns of the Europeans, of the Gulf states, of the Israelis. Only the United States can pull that together and say, We need the following things: We need a Syria that will not have weapons of mass destruction, that won’t threaten its neighbors, that won’t allow the Iranians to use its territory, that won’t have a jihadi state.”
— Michael Doran
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
Zineb Riboua explains why Turkey is too important for the US and its European allies to ignore amid rising strategic competition.
As the US works to put out fires across the Middle East, President Donald Trump should remember that Vladimir Putin is the arsonist, argues Rebeccah L. Heinrichs.
The Trump administration’s shift in focus from the Houthis to their Iranian benefactors changes the calculus in the region. “He means business in the negotiations over their nuclear program,” said Mike Doran on Deep Dive.
