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Week of March 17, 2025 [[link removed]] | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council

* Araghchi: Trump’s Letter ‘Mostly Threats’ but Also Hints at Opportunities [[link removed]]
* French Citizen Olivier Grondou Released from Iranian Detention [[link removed]]
* Chaharshanbe Suri in Iran: A Blend of Ancient Celebration and Modern Defiance [[link removed]]
* Simultaneous Wildfires in Iran’s Wetlands and Forests Prompt Widespread Closures and Environmental Warnings [[link removed]]
* Iran’s Rial Hits Historic Low as Dollar Surpasses 100,000 Tomans [[link removed]]
* Trump Puts Onus on Iran to Restrain Houthis as U.S. Strikes in Yemen Leave Dozens Killed [[link removed]]
* House Arrest of Mehdi Karroubi Lifted: Officials Promise Similar Action for Mousavi [[link removed]]

Araghchi: Trump’s Letter ‘Mostly Threats’ but Also Hints at Opportunities [[link removed]]
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that President Donald Trump’s letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader “mostly amounts to threats” but also “claims to offer certain opportunities .” Araghchi made these remarks on a special Norooz program on Channel 2, which he attended with his wife and young daughter. He noted that Iran has examined all aspects of the letter in detail and is preparing a response that “will reflect both the threats and the potential openings contained within.” According to Araghchi, “We have carefully reviewed all aspects of the letter. The response we are preparing will reflect these dimensions, including both the threats and the purported opportunities.”

Araghchi also recalled the late General Qassem Soleimani: “Within every threat, there also lies an opportunity, and we intend to take any potential opportunity into account .” He confirmed that a formal reply would be sent to the United States “through appropriate channels” in the coming days.

President Trump’s letter, mentioned by Araghchi, was sent to the Supreme Leader in an attempt to open a direct channel of communication . However, this diplomatic gesture has simultaneously been accompanied by the threat of additional sanctions and possible military action if Washington’s demands were not met. This dual-track approach—offering potential diplomatic paths alongside heightened pressure—has been a hallmark of the Trump administration’s Iran strategy. Araghchi’s comments suggest that Iran views the letter as both “menacing and opportunistic,” and that while Tehran remains unwilling to negotiate under overt coercion, it has not entirely closed the door on potential diplomatic engagement—provided that interactions take place on equal terms and without escalating threats.

Araghchi reiterated that Iran will not engage in direct negotiations with the United States while under escalating sanctions and threats . “Negotiations must take place on equal footing,” he said, adding that it is Iran’s policy to avoid direct talks under pressure. He also addressed concerns about the complexities of the coming year—particularly in light of future deadlines and international scrutiny—explaining that the period ahead will be “hard, important, and complex.” Nonetheless, he expressed confidence that Iran is prepared to face these challenges and will “overcome them by God’s grace.” Araghchi underscored that “great nations are forged in times of hardship,” noting that adversity often drives greater innovation and more determined efforts to resolve problems.

He further stressed that safeguarding national interests is the guiding principle of Iran’s foreign policy, recalling how Tehran has previously experienced “maximum pressure” from Washington . Araghchi assured the Iranian people that officials in the foreign ministry will spare no effort to advance the country’s interests and security, pledging not to miss any opportunity to achieve those goals.

French Citizen Olivier Grondou Released from Iranian Detention [[link removed]]
Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, announced in a post on the social media platform X that Olivier Grondou, a French citizen who had been detained in Iran since October 2022, has been released . Macron stated that Mr. Grondou has returned to France but provided no further details on the terms of his release. He also expressed gratitude to all government bodies, the French ambassador in Iran, and the Crisis and Support Center of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs for their efforts.

In recent years, multiple foreign nationals—including French citizens—have been held in Iran under various security or espionage charges . Critics allege that in some instances, the Iranian government uses such arrests as leverage in diplomatic disputes, an accusation that Tehran denies. Mr. Grondou, who was 34 at the time of his arrest in Shiraz, faced security-related charges that his family has consistently rejected. They maintain that he is a lover of Persian poetry who entered Iran on a tourist visa during a trip around the world. His release offers relief to both his family and international observers concerned about the wellbeing of foreign detainees in Iran.

Chaharshanbe Suri in Iran: A Blend of Ancient Celebration and Modern Defiance [[link removed]]
Chaharshanbe Suri—an ancient festival marking the farewell to the old year and its hardships, and the welcome of joy and celebration in the new year—dates back centuries and is believed to have roots in Zoroastrian traditions . It is observed on the eve of the last Wednesday of the year, when Iranians gather to light bonfires and symbolically pass their “paleness” or sorrows to the flames. The ritual is accompanied by chanting “Zardi-ye man az to, sorkhi-ye to az man” (“My paleness to you, your redness to me”), emphasizing a collective wish for renewed energy and vitality in the coming year.

Beyond its symbolic fire-jumping, the festival is also a vibrant cultural event . In many neighborhoods, young girls and boys take to the streets, dancing and singing, celebrating freely well into the night. They often refuse to follow the mandatory hijab and other strict rules imposed by the authorities, transforming Chaharshanbe Suri into a spontaneous display of joy and defiance. The sight of bonfires illuminating the darkness, accompanied by music and laughter, highlights the festival’s enduring appeal for people of all ages.

Despite its festive atmosphere, incidents during this annual celebration continue to rise . Babak Yaktaparast, spokesperson for the National Emergency Services, reports that injuries have increased by 26% compared to the same period last year (March 1–17). According to him, there has been a 12% rise in burn cases, a 37% increase in eye injuries, and a 10% increase in amputations.

The latest updates from the National Emergency Services indicate that the total number of injured has reached 1,674, with 1,604 transported to medical centers . Another 70 people received treatment at the scene. Fatalities now stand at 8. Among the injured, 100 have suffered amputations, 424 have sustained eye injuries, and 623 have experienced burns. The provinces of West Azerbaijan, Tehran, and Kurdistan report the highest number of casualties.

In light of both the festival’s traditional beauty and its modern-day challenges, Chaharshanbe Suri continues to be a powerful cultural touchstone —representing not only a farewell to the sorrows of the past year, but also a spirited assertion of collective identity and resilience.

Simultaneous Wildfires in Iran’s Wetlands and Forests Prompt Widespread Closures and Environmental Warnings [[link removed]]
On Monday, March 17, thick smoke from a fire in the Iraqi section of the Hoor al-Azim Wetland led to the closure of schools, universities, and certain government offices in several counties of Khuzestan Province . According to a statement released on Sunday night, March 16 by the Khuzestan Department of Environment, the burning of reeds in the Iraqi portion of the wetland began the previous evening, and the resulting smoke and odor have affected multiple areas in the region. As a result, all educational institutions and government offices in Hoveyzeh and Dasht-e Azadegan were ordered closed for Monday. Schools and universities in Ahvaz, Karun, Bavi, and Hamidiyeh also suspended operations, although government offices, banks, and health, service, and industrial centers in those four counties remained open. A Khuzestan Department of Environment official announced that around 300 hectares of the wetland have been affected by the fire, largely due to unusually widespread dryness not previously seen in winter.

Local media also reported that on Sunday afternoon, March 16, flames destroyed a significant portion of the reedbeds around Lake Zaribar in Marivan, Kurdistan Province . Esmail Ahmadi, the governor of Marivan, told reporters that the fire’s remote location—far from main access roads—raises the likelihood of arson. He noted that all available resources, including emergency services, natural resource teams, local volunteers, and municipal firefighting crews, were deployed to contain the blaze. However, strong winds and limited accessibility to certain parts of the reedbeds have complicated efforts. Environmental activists warn that this incident not only damages local vegetation but also endangers the wildlife reliant on this ecosystem, including native and migratory birds, reptiles, and other species. As Iran’s largest freshwater wetland and a critical habitat for both migratory and resident birds, Lake Zaribar has long struggled with threats such as wildfires, wastewater discharge, and decreasing water supplies.

Later, on Tuesday evening, March 18, another wildfire began in the forests near Chalus. Although firefighting teams initially managed to extinguish it by around 8:00 p.m., it flared up again due to wind and warm weather. Mehrdad Khazaei, Director General of Natural Resources and Watershed Management for Mazandaran–Noshahr, pointed out the area’s challenging terrain and explained that a helicopter had been requested to help control the blaze. Additional support from neighboring counties was also called in.

Critics argue that, despite the vast forests in northern Iran and repeated incidents in recent years, there is still a shortage of essential equipment —such as water-bombing helicopters—as well as insufficient preventive measures and trained personnel in sensitive areas. Environmental activists stress that crisis management in Iran requires not just reactive emergency responses but also proactive planning and investment in modern firefighting technologies to ensure effective and timely containment of such disasters.

Iran’s Rial Hits Historic Low as Dollar Surpasses 100,000 Tomans [[link removed]]
Sources in Iran’s currency market report that the U.S. dollar has reached 100,000 tomans, with some indicating it has already passed that mark—setting a new record for the decline in the rial’s value . In today’s free-market trading, the euro was around 108,000 tomans and the British pound 128,000 tomans.

Multiple factors appear to be fueling this surge in foreign exchange rates, including escalating tensions between Iran and the United States following recent remarks by Donald Trump, Israeli attacks on Gaza, fears of further devaluation of the Iranian currency, and a bleak economic outlook . Toward the end of the Iranian calendar year, currency prices often rise; some observers link this pattern to the government’s efforts to address budget deficits, though officials have repeatedly denied such accusations.

The gold market has mirrored this volatility . The new-design gold coin (Emami) approached 94 million tomans, while the old-design coin (Bahar Azadi) neared 84 million tomans. Meanwhile, global gold prices rose to USD 3,020 per ounce, buoyed by a weakened U.S. dollar, Middle East crises, economic uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. Gold, traditionally seen as a secure investment in times of crisis, has climbed 15% since the start of the year.

In the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), the overall index dropped by 34,359 points on the final trading day of the year, reflecting a shift of capital from the stock market to parallel markets . Early this morning, Donald Trump’s warning that Iran would be held responsible for any attacks by the Houthis, with the promise of “severe” consequences, rattled investors, further boosting demand for foreign currency and gold.

Over the past months, Iran’s currency market has seen rapid increases, culminating in the dollar’s jump from about 60,000 tomans to 100,000 tomans under Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration—a roughly 60% rise in under six months . As the year closes, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions aimed at reducing Iranian oil exports and weakening the national currency. A total of 18 companies, 13 ships, and Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad were sanctioned, alongside several entities in China and India accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments. According to the Treasury, these measures target Iran’s “shadow fleet” and seek to drive its oil exports toward zero.

Domestically, the Iranian Parliament’s Program, Budget, and Audit Commission indicates that the budget deficit for the upcoming fiscal year has surpassed 1,500 trillion tomans, while an advisor to the President of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce previously estimated the operational deficit at about 1,805 trillion tomans . At the same time, liquidity has soared to 9,603 trillion tomans—nearly five times its level six years ago—without corresponding growth in the production of goods and services, heightening inflationary pressures.

Year-on-year inflation in February (Bahman) held at 32%, but point-to-point and monthly figures hint at further price hikes in the coming months . Experts who have examined inflation trends over two-, four-, and eight-year spans warn of a deepening structural crisis. Two-year inflation rose from 107% in 1399 to 123.1% in 1402, four-year inflation reached 379%, and the eight-year rate—around 1,000% in 1402—now hovers near 1,500% and could exceed 1,600% soon. This implies a 16-fold rise in the price of typical household goods over just eight years.

Economist Bahaeddin Hosseini-Hashsemi notes that ongoing budget deficits, excessive bank borrowing, and heightened external threats make short-term exchange-rate predictions very difficult . He observes that currency rates generally move in line with the national inflation rate—around 30–40%—and can jump even more due to inflationary expectations and foreign policy tensions. With new sanctions likely increasing the costs of exports and sanctions evasion, upward pressure on the exchange rate is expected to persist. Hosseini-Hashsemi adds that Iran’s banking system, largely disconnected from global financial networks, faces steep hurdles in international transactions, further increasing costs and risks.

Overall, the Iranian economy is grappling with high inflation, soaring liquidity, rising budget deficits, and renewed external pressure from tougher sanctions . Without significant structural reforms and improved global relations, the currency market looks set to remain volatile, and the country’s economic challenges could continue to deepen.

Trump Puts Onus on Iran to Restrain Houthis as U.S. Strikes in Yemen Leave Dozens Killed [[link removed]]
According to Houthi health officials, at least 53 people—including several children—were killed in heavy U.S. airstrikes on Sunday, March 16 . The United States described these attacks as “widespread and heavy” on Houthi positions in Yemen and claimed several Houthi leaders were targeted and killed. In response, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned that his forces would strike U.S. ships in the Red Sea until Washington ends its military action against Yemen.

U.S. officials suggested the strikes would continue and hinted that they included a message for Iran, which has been broadly identified as the Houthis’ primary military benefactor. On March 26, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CBS News that U.S. attacks would continue until the Houthis “could no longer threaten global shipping or U.S. naval forces”, adding there are “no plans for a ground invasion for now.” He insisted the Houthis “absolutely could not attack international shipping without support from Iran.”

Meanwhile, National Security Advisor Pete Hegseth said strikes would continue “uninterrupted”, describing Houthi attacks on ships since November 2023 as “dozens of provocations” and warning Iran to halt its backing of the group . National Security Advisor Michael Waltz stated the U.S. had “hit back decisively”, emphasizing “enough is enough” regarding Tehran’s alleged role in supporting the Houthis. The Houthis condemned the U.S. strikes as a “war crime”, pledging to “escalate if necessary.”

President Donald Trump has also warned Iran to “stop supporting the Houthis,” threatening serious consequences if it endangers the United States. In a post on Truth Social, the U.S. President warned “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”

Iran, for its part, dismissed claims that it controls Houthi actions . Commander Hossein Salami of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps asserted that Iran “does not seek war but will respond decisively if threatened,” stressing the Houthis are “independent.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi briefly visited Muscat, Oman to discuss Yemen and posted on X that the U.S. has “no right to dictate Iran’s foreign policy.”

Yemeni residents report some of the most intense bombing they have ever witnessed around Houthi strongholds . Since the war in Gaza began in October 2023, the Houthis claim over 100 attacks on commercial ships in solidarity with Palestinians, seriously disrupting global shipping. Analysts suggest Washington aims to protect Red Sea maritime routes and pressure Iran—isolated regionally—to return to nuclear talks, although Tehran says it will “not negotiate under pressure” and denies seeking nuclear arms.

Amid this offensive, the Houthis claim they have attacked the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman twice within 24 hours as retaliation . According to Yahya Qassem Sarea, the group’s spokesperson, they fired 18 missiles and a drone at the carrier on Sunday, then struck again hours later. A U.S. official countered that American fighter jets shot down 11 Houthi drones and tracked a missile falling harmlessly into the sea, noting none approached the carrier. The Houthis, who have controlled large parts of Yemen for a decade, recently warned they would continue striking ships they believe linked to Israel unless aid restrictions on Gaza are lifted. The U.S. responded it would use “deadly force” to protect global shipping.

Following a call by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi for a mass demonstration marking the anniversary of the Battle of Badr, thousands turned out in Houthi-controlled areas carrying signs or weapons, chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel .” In a speech aired Sunday night, he urged a “million-strong” turnout to commemorate the historic battle.

Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly finalizing its response to a letter from President Trump to Ayatollah Khamenei . Ali Gholhaki, a journalist in Tehran, says the letter is written in Trump’s “direct style” yet retains official formalities, containing elements of threat and an insistence on dialogue. Another journalist, Sara Masoumi, notes that “reliable sources” indicate Tehran’s official reply “has not yet been finalized” and is still under review at high diplomatic levels.

House Arrest of Mehdi Karroubi Lifted: Officials Promise Similar Action for Mousavi [[link removed]]
According to Iranian media, Hossein Karroubi – the son of Green Movement leader Mehdi Karroubi – stated: “Yesterday, during a visit with my father, officials informed him that starting today, based on the order of the head of the judiciary, your house arrest is lifted . However, for security and protective reasons, officers will remain at your residence until April 9 (20 Farvardin), after which they will leave.”

He went on to quote his father, saying: “My father noted that, as I previously announced, both I and Mr. Mousavi have been under house arrest for over 14 years for protesting the 2009 election results, and we should be released together . However, now that you’ve decided to end my house arrest, I cannot stop you from leaving. But I advise you to end the house arrest of Mr. Mousavi and Ms. Rahnavard as soon as possible.”

Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard had been under house arrest since February 2011, following their objection to the 2009 presidential election results and the subsequent suppression of protesters . Earlier this year, as speculation grew that his house arrest might end, 87-year-old Karroubi had stipulated that lifting his house arrest must be accompanied by the freedom of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard.

Hossein Karroubi also mentioned that officials told his father, “The same process that was carried out for you will be implemented for Mr. Mousavi in the coming months, and he too will be released from house arrest.” Recently, Hassan Khomeini , the son of the founder of the Islamic Republic, visited Mehdi Karroubi, and a photo from that meeting was published in the media.

In his first press conference after taking office as president, when the live TV broadcast had ended, Masoud Pezeshkian responded to journalists asking about the status of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi by saying: “Mr. Karroubi’s issue has been resolved, and we are working on the other case… But one must not clash with the system.”

News of Mehdi Karroubi’s release prompted various reactions . Azar Mansouri, head of the Reformist Front, welcomed the development, calling it “good news” and writing on the social media platform X: “The house arrest of Sheikh Mehdi Karroubi has ended. We hope that the house arrest of our other dear ones, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard, will also be ended, and that all political prisoners will be freed in 2025 (1404).”

In another response, Ahmad Zeidabadi, a former political prisoner and political activist, said, “Amid the turmoil in the region and unprecedented economic hardship faced by the public, the news of lifting Sheikh Mehdi Karroubi’s house arrest is a welcome and positive development .” He also expressed hope that “with the lifting of the house arrest of Mir Hossein and Mrs. Rahnavard, as well as the release of all political and ideological prisoners, our country’s liberation from the grim phenomenon of political house arrests and prisons will be complete, opening a new path for Iran.”

Officials of the Islamic Republic had repeatedly claimed that the Supreme National Security Council had decided on the house arrests of Ms. Rahnavard, Mr. Mousavi, and Mr. Karroubi . In 2017, when Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei was still spokesperson for the judiciary, he stated: “The Supreme National Security Council’s decision is legal and binding, and no one has the right to oppose it.” The house arrests had been conducted via fiat with no opportunity for any of the three to challenge any charges or their circumstances. However, Hossein Karroubi says that this time, they were told Mr. Karroubi’s house arrest had been lifted by order of Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the current head of the judiciary, and there has been no mention of the Supreme National Security Council.
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