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Edited by: James Desio and Carter Hutchinson

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the misleading cost of college tuition, the importance of family structure for young men, and President Trump’s impact on the US economy.

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1. College Tuition Explained

Topline: AEI’s Preston Cooper writes that the idea of a sharp rise in college cost is misleading. In the 2019–20 academic year, the average sticker price tuition for full-time students in undergraduate degree programs was $21,558 per year. But he finds that the institution's tuition revenue and the amount students pay are both much lower than sticker price.

Student Costs: The average student paid $9,377 for their college tuition in the 2019–20 academic year. The remainder of their tuition was covered by a combination of institutional discounts, federal grants, state grants, and other grants.

College Gains: The average institution provided each student $6,853 in financial aid from institutional sources, meaning it collected $14,704 in net tuition revenue per student.

“Net college tuition, or tuition after financial aid is applied, has risen far less quickly than sticker price tuition and has even fallen in recent years. However, net tuition’s relative stability is largely not due to universities holding their own prices down. Rather, financial aid from external sources, such as the federal government’s Pell Grant, has increased dramatically over the past three decades. This has kept net prices for students down—even as colleges and universities collect more tuition revenue.” —Preston Cooper

2. Family Matters

Topline: Of the young men raised in an intact family, 36 percent graduate college, while only 19 percent go to prison or jail. AEI’s Brad Wilcox finds young men raised outside of an intact family with two biological parents are more likely to go to prison or jail than they are to graduate from college.

• Men age 24–32 raised by two biological parents are outcome outliers; every other family structure sees a lower share of college graduates and a higher share of incarcerated men.
• Young men raised by a single mother are most likely to go to jail (36 percent) while young men raised by a single father are least likely to graduate from college (11 percent). 

“When children are raised outside of an intact family, those children are markedly more likely to struggle in school, to tangle with the law and to struggle in the workforce. The data show a clear “two-parent advantage” for kids, especially boys.” —Brad Wilcox

3. Stock Market Slump

Topline: After a strong economic start, AEI’s Michael Strain finds Trump’s recent policies have sent stocks plunging—highlighted by the S&P 500 falling 10 percent on March 13 from its record high just three weeks before.

Trade Troubles: Stocks fell after Trump suggested reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners. His open hostility towards valued trade partners like Canada, Mexico, and the European Union not only dramatically impacted the stock market, but also soured business and consumer sentiment, increased inflation expectations, and chilled investment.

What happened? Strain suggests three possible explanations for the downturn of Trump’s economy:

• Incompetence and incongruence between Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) staff and the execution of trade policy.
• Trump may think that if the US is running a bilateral trade deficit with another country, it must be losing economic value to that country.
• Trump may believe that the US economy needs a fundamental, painful transformation, therefore welcoming harmful economic outcomes.

“Furthermore, much of the president’s agenda will boost near-term growth. It would take a lot to tip the economy into recession. The sooner Trump regains investors’ and consumers’ confidence, the less likely that outcome becomes.”—Michael Strain

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