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Daily News Brief

February 10, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. trade tensions, along with...

  • Lebanon’s first full cabinet in more than two years

  • Elections in Ecuador and Kosovo
  • Israel’s withdrawal from a crucial Gaza corridor

Top of the Agenda

Trump began the week by suggesting new steel and aluminum tariffs on the same day that China retaliated against recent U.S. duties. Trump plans to announce 25 percent tariffs today on all steel and aluminum entering the United States, he said yesterday. He added that reciprocal tariffs are coming this week for any trading partner that imposes duties on U.S. goods. While Trump did not detail those plans further, they were the latest sign of his willingness to use tariffs as a negotiating tool. Beijing yesterday imposed retaliatory tariffs on around $14 billion of U.S. goods—pushing any possible agreement to avert bilateral trade tensions into the future. 

 

Striking back. In response to 10 percent tariffs that Trump set on Chinese goods last week—which he said aimed to pressure China to crack down on fentanyl smuggling to the United States—Beijing imposed tariffs of 10 to 15 percent on U.S. goods including energy and automotive products. China’s countermeasures took effect at 11:01 am Washington time on Sunday morning, and at 12:01 am Beijing time on Monday. Analysts have called them a limited response to Trump’s duties. Trump may be seeking cooperation on additional non-trade issues—such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and the ownership of TikTok—analysts said. 

 

Both parties appear to be testing cautious escalation. Last Tuesday, China also announced an antitrust probe into Google as well as export restrictions on metals used in the defense and clean energy sectors. In a de-escalatory step on Friday, Trump walked back a tax on small value packages shipped from China—though that move was at least in part a response to overwhelmed U.S. customs officials. 


What happens next. U.S.-China trade relations appear to have chilled but not completely iced over. All eyes will be on Trump to see if he escalates further in response to Beijing’s retaliation. And while China would not be one of the harder-hit countries by Trump’s plans for new steel and aluminum tariffs—the biggest sources of U.S. steel imports are Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam—analysts warned yesterday that Trump’s proposal could cause pain for U.S. industry. “At a stroke, Trump is making U.S. manufacturing globally uncompetitive,” CFR’s Benn Steil posted.

How Beijing Prepared for Trade Tensions

China is better prepared to fight back against Trump’s trade measures than during his last administration—and a bilateral tariff battle could severely damage the U.S. economy, CFR’s Joshua Kurlantzick writes. 

People hold U.S. and China flags as they attend a celebration of the Lunar New Year, in the Chinatown section of Manhattan in New York City, U.S., January 29, 2025. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

Across the Globe

Lebanon’s new cabinet. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced a deal Saturday to form the country’s first full-fledged cabinet in over two years. Following pressure by donor countries, namely the United States, Hezbollah and its allies control less than one-third of seats; they are thus unable to single-handedly block decisions requiring two-thirds approval. The new government’s priorities include financial reforms, reconstruction, and implementing a UN resolution about stability on the border with Israel, Salam said. 

 

Namibia mourns founding father. Sam Nujoma, who led Namibia’s fight for independence from South Africa and became its first president in 1990, died Saturday. Nujoma also fought apartheid in South Africa, whose current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, mourned him as an “extraordinary freedom fighter.” Nujoma held office for fifteen years, modifying the constitution in order to run for a third term and overseeing a clampdown on critical media. His party, the South West Africa People’s Organization, still rules Namibia.

 

Baltic states unplug from Russia. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected from Russia’s power grid on Saturday before plugging into a continental European energy grid. The European Union supported the transition, which was five years in the making, with $1.65 billion. The Baltic countries had sought energy independence from Russia even before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

 

Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza corridor. Israeli forces began pulling back from the Netzarim corridor, which bisects Gaza, over the weekend. The move is part of the ongoing cease-fire and hostage release agreement, which saw three Israeli hostages and 183 Palestinian prisoners freed Saturday. An Israeli delegation arrived in Qatar yesterday for talks on the potential next phase of that deal, while Egypt said it will host a summit of Arab leaders this month regarding “new and dangerous developments in the Palestinian issue.” 

 

DOGE roadblocks and ambitions. Judges temporarily blocked some actions propelled by U.S. special government employee Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in recent days. One judge curtailed DOGE’s access to the Treasury Department payments system, and another halted an order to put USAID staff on leave. Trump said in an excerpted interview that aired Sunday the team will next seek out “fraud” at the Education and Defense departments. 

 

Ecuador’s election runoff. Center-right President Daniel Noboa and his left-wing challenger Luisa González will advance in Ecuador’s presidential election to a second round of voting on April 13. With around 96 percent of votes counted from yesterday’s first round, Noboa received 44.37 percent to González’s 43.86 percent. Noboa has overseen a crackdown on organized crime, while González pledged to increase social spending.

 

A tight victory for Kosovo’s Kurti. Kosovo’s ruling Vetëvendosje party won the most votes in yesterday’s legislative elections but will need coalition partners in order to govern, according to preliminary results. Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s outgoing administration was the first to finish a full term since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Kurti oversaw efforts to reduce ethnic Serbs’ autonomy in the north that caused tensions with Brussels and Washington. 


China’s green subsidy pullback. The Chinese government is reducing subsidies for renewable energy such as solar and wind power, its top economic planning agency said. That comes after the country met its 2030 targets for wind and solar capacity nearly six years early. Officials did not give details of a new “market-based bidding” system for electricity payments but said it would affect projects completed after this June.

Guac Shock

The majority of avocados consumed in the U.S. come from Mexico. This visual explainer by CFR’s Will Merrow and Andrew Huang shows how tariffs could make the price of avocados—and other goods—more expensive.    

 Workers select freshly-picked avocados for export to the U.S., at a packing warehouse, in Periban, Mexico January 17, 2025. (Ivan Arias/Reuters)

Workers select avocados for export at a packing warehouse, in Periban, Mexico. Ivan Arias/Reuters

A Look Ahead

  • A Paris artificial intelligence (AI) summit co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicks off.

     

  • Countries face a deadline today to submit new climate targets under the Paris Agreement.

     

  • The UN Security Council holds a meeting on international terrorism threats.

Trump’s AI EO

CFR’s Michael C. Horowitz unpacks the takeaways from the new Trump administration executive order on AI, competitiveness, and national security—and how it may signal a departure from the Joe Biden administration’s policies. 

Artificial Intelligence words, miniature of robot and U.S. flag are seen in this illustration taken December 21, 2023. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)
 

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