February 11, 2025 Dear John, As during the first Trump administration, Mexico finds itself again under threat of imposition of tariffs on its exports to the United States to achieve particular U.S. aims in deterring the arrival of unauthorized migration and illicit drugs. Yet Mexico already is a crucial partner in U.S. migration management, with its increased enforcement a significant factor in reduced encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border that have now hit a five-year low, as Ariel G. Ruiz Soto and Andrew Selee write in a new short read. They examine the fundamentals around the high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Mexico amid a 30-day pause in implementation of 25 percent tariffs on Mexican goods. In particular, they note that the landscape is significantly different from 2019, when tariffs were last threatened. Mexico already has dramatically expanded migration controls—apprehending more migrants every month since May 2024 than U.S. border counterparts. It also has imposed visa restrictions, expanded its asylum system, and integrated significant numbers of migrants who might otherwise have continued northward. Adding to Mexico’s greater leverage at the bargaining table this time: Many of the Trump border policies require its cooperation. “The wild-card nature of the negotiations over tariffs, which could inflict major harm on businesses, workers, and consumers on both sides of the border, comes against a backdrop of significant cooperation on migration management developed in recent years through negotiations that weighed both countries’ interests,” the analysts write. To achieve lasting, effective results, the U.S. and Mexican negotiators should build a process that creates trust and predictability, recognizing each country’s needs, capacities, and constraints, they argue. “Jeopardizing the gains that have made U.S.-Mexico migration collaboration successful so far is simply not a smart option for either government.” For a deeper dive, check out this timely analysis: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/tariff-threats-trump-sheinbaum-migration. | 
