New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
No. 98 - February 11, 2025
READ MORE [[link removed]]
Photo Credit: James Andrews1/Shutterstock
A Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
If you looked only at economic indicators, you might not think anything is out of the ordinary.
NYC’s economy continued to expand at a moderate pace. The office market continued to heal. The city’s population seems to be on the rebound. Tax revenues are meeting our expectations, (fueled by a hefty increase in end-of-year bonuses, and a growing property tax roll).
The initial data on congestion pricing shows that the program is working as intended: travel times into and through the congestion zone are down, and transit usage is up. Cleaner air, less traffic, and funding for the subway system, a deal that everyone should be happy with.
Even the Mayor’s Preliminary Budget has all-too-familiar traits: implausibly low expenditure projections in key areas, exaggerated costs for asylum seekers, funding gaps for early childhood education, and no deposits in reserves.
Alas, those familiar indicators contrast harshly with the chaos unleashed by the Trump administration – and the echoes at City Hall. What we are seeing is worse than feared in our November [[link removed]] and December [[link removed]] reports: purges, mass layoffs, dismantling entire agencies, attacks on Congress and the courts, erratic tariff announcements, imperialist foreign policy – and ordering local prosecutors to do their bidding. All couched in cultural revolution-inspired rhetoric.
My office will continue to do everything in our power to protect New Yorkers. Earlier this week, we convened a roundtable with the NY Attorney General, City Council Speaker, Public Advocate, and the Partnership for NYC to discuss the economic impacts of mass deportation with business, labor, and community leaders. We published new data on the risks to Medicaid [[link removed]] and the threat of funding freezes to human services providers [[link removed]] .
This month’s Spotlight [[link removed]] tells the same tale: We look at significant improvements in the number of “unbanked” households in New York over the past decade. One big reason: the work of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Sadly, over the weekend, Trump ordered the CFPB – which has secured over $20 billion for American households since it was created – to send its employees home, close its doors, and cease nearly all activity.
We’ll keep watching the numbers – and what’s happening on the ground, too.
[[link removed]]
Brad Lander
Table of Contents
* The U.S. Economy [[link removed]]
* New York City Economy [[link removed]]
* City Finances [[link removed]]
Highlights
* The U.S. saw moderate job growth in January, following solid gains in November and December. Job growth during 2023 and 2024 was revised down somewhat with the release of annual benchmark revisions. The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to an 8-month low of 4.0% in January, and wage growth picked up somewhat.


* In NYC, employment has been flat outside the Health & Social Assistance sector, but upcoming revisions are expected to show job gains to be a bit more broad-based. The share of adult residents with jobs dipped in December but is still near a record high.


* Statewide population estimates for 2024, released last December, suggest that New York City’s population bottomed out in 2022 and has risen in each of the past two years, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels. NYC data are due for release in March.


* New York City’s office market has continued its gradually improving trend in January—in contrast with most other major cities—with availability rates falling to 4-year lows.


* While it is too early to assess any long-term effects, congestion pricing appears to have led to a pickup in transit ridership and quicker travel times for vehicles entering and traversing the southern half of Manhattan.


* The number of asylum-seekers in City shelters continued to trend down in January and at a quickening pace, while the number of people in shelter who are not asylum-seekers was little changed. The decline in NYC shelter entrants is consistent with, and likely related to, the decline in southern U.S. border encounters since June.


* Incoming tax revenue data largely confirms the projections we published in December [[link removed]] . However, the new property tax roll shows stronger growth than we had expected and will generate additional revenues in FY 2026 and beyond. On the other hand, property transfer taxes, including mortgage recording tax, have been sluggish.


* Annual bonuses, mostly paid out in December through March and most prominently in the Finance sector, are tracking to be up nearly 25% from last season.


* The headcount of city employees has increased modestly over the past six months but remains about 5% below plan.
View the February Newsletter [[link removed]]
Spotlight
The Unbanked
This month’s spotlight focuses on access to banking and consumer credit in New York City. We explore which groups lack sufficient access to the banking system, their use of high-cost non-bank financial services, and recent regulatory and technological developments in the consumer financial industry.
View the Spotlight [[link removed]]
Federal Funding Tool
Last week, the Comptroller’s Office released a new tool that tracks the extent to which the City’s social and human services programs are funded by federal dollars. Within the City’s Financial Plan, approximately $8 billion of non-emergency federal funds is budgeted for City agencies, with over half of that funding allocated to social services agencies. These agencies contract with nonprofit organizations for many services that are partially supported by federal funds. This dataset indicates what share of a program budget is federally funded and whether that program includes contracted services.
Read More [[link removed]]
In Case You Missed It
Over the past month, the Office of Comptroller released the following announcements on the state of NYC’s economy and finances:
1. Statement from NYC Comptroller on Mayor Adams’ FY 26 Preliminary Budget [[link removed]]
2. Statement by Comptroller Lander on President Donald Trump’s Executive Order [[link removed]]
3. NYC Comptroller Response to Trump Freezing Federal Aid & Grants [[link removed]]
4. NYC Comptroller Responds to Reversal of Trump Memo Freezing Federal Aid & Grants [[link removed]]
5. 9-out-10 Human Services Contracts Arrive Late to Comptroller for Review [[link removed]]
6. Comptroller Lander Declines to Register ShotSpotter Contract Renewal [[link removed]]
7. New Comptroller Tool Demonstrates How Trump’s Funding Freezes Could Impact NYC’s Human Services [[link removed]]
8. Fiscal Note: Risks of Medicaid and other NY State Healthcare Programs [[link removed]]
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Office of the New York City Comptroller
Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
United States
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