Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Feb. 11, 2025
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How Much Power Will AI Systems Need?
Larger training runs and widespread deployment of AI systems may demand a rapid scale-up of computational resources. This could require unprecedented amounts of power.
A new RAND report estimates that AI data centers could need 10 gigawatts of additional power capacity this year alone. (That's more than the total power capacity of Utah.) By 2027, these data centers could need 68 total gigawatts of power capacity--almost a doubling of global data center power requirements in 2022. And by 2030, AI power requirements could reach 327 gigawatts.
What could be done to meet this demand? Addressing bottlenecks for building out U.S. data centers is key. More research is needed to chart a way forward, but this could include simplifying permitting requirements for power generation, transmission infrastructure, and data center construction. There may also be ways to reduce the power needed for AI, including by developing more energy-efficient microchips.
If the United States fails to find solutions, then the industry may continue to struggle to find enough power capacity and rapidly build new data centers. In turn, American companies may be compelled to relocate AI infrastructure abroad, potentially compromising the U.S. competitive advantage in AI and increasing the risk of intellectual property theft.
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Taking Stock of China's Arctic Progress
Seven years after China released its first public Arctic policy, its progress in the region is mixed. That's according to RAND's Stephanie Pezard and Abbie Tingstad. While many of its Arctic ambitions remain unfulfilled, China is slowly building up its capabilities in the region and "using all tools of soft power--from economic investments to science diplomacy--to establish itself as a legitimate Arctic stakeholder." This is why the United States should continue to focus on China's Arctic activities, pushing back on those that pose serious risks.
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L.A. Youth Leaving Foster Care Struggle to Find Housing
A new RAND study finds that young adults in Los Angeles who were transitioning out of foster care had a hard time finding permanent housing. In fact, the young people who participated in our study moved an average of 15 times over a single year. And even though half of the participants did find permanent housing, the accommodations were often only available for two years and were restricted to youth ages 18 to 24. Considering the extreme risk of homelessness facing this group, the authors recommend strengthening services for youth and expanding services to those older than 24.
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** RAND Recommends
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- New RAND research may help school leaders and public safety professionals improve responses to student behavior that has the potential to develop into violence.
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- Speaking to Newsweek, RAND's Bryden Spurling says that North Korea likely sees little risk in supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine: "We can see that in how they're directly contributing ground forces in a way that no other state is, on either side of the war."
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- RAND's Konstantin Pilz and Lennart Heim explain what DeepSeek's recent success really changes about AI competition: Its models are freely downloadable by anyone.
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** Events
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Improving Transition Support for Those Leaving the Military
Thursday, February 20, 2025 (Online)
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Policy Lab: AI Risks and Benefits in Clinical Care
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 (Online)
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Applications are open for Pardee RAND Graduate School's new Master of National Security Policy degree program. Full-time and part-time schedules are available at our campuses in Santa Monica, CA, and Arlington, VA.
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