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Daily News Brief

February 12, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s first NATO meetings, as well as...

  • China’s space programs in Africa
  • The threat of resumed fighting in Gaza
  • Tesla’s new battery factory in Shanghai

Top of the Agenda

Hegseth will endorse a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine as he meets with NATO counterparts today, the Pentagon said. The visit to Brussels comes just ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, with European allies eager to discuss how the Donald Trump administration will address the war. Hegseth is also expected to discuss those allies’ levels of defense spending. Meanwhile, Trump administration officials have increased contact with both Kyiv and Moscow. A Trump envoy traveled to Russia and brought back a formerly detained American yesterday, while Trump also said yesterday he is sending Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

 

Staking out positions. Talks on Ukraine’s future have intensified, but public details have so far remained vague.

  • The Trump administration supports not only a negotiated end to the war “as quickly as possible” but also “increased European leadership on security assistance to Ukraine,” a Pentagon spokesperson said prior to Hegseth’s trip. 

  • Zelenskyy has called for security guarantees from the United States and Europe, saying NATO membership would be the “cheapest” such guarantee. On Monday, he told the Guardian he was willing to swap Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk for Russian-held territory in his country.

  • Russia has not openly suggested that it is straying from its goals of annexing seized Ukrainian territory and blocking Ukraine from joining NATO.

  • France has floated the idea of stationing European peacekeepers in Ukraine after the war, but other countries in the region are more hesitant.

Outstanding questions. A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could include future security guarantees for Kyiv. The nature of those guarantees, and who would provide them, remain open questions. Trump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz said last Sunday that such guarantees are “squarely going to be with the Europeans,” while Zelenskyy told the Guardian that “security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees.” In recent days, Zelenskyy has floated the possibility of giving the United States priority access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals to increase U.S. interest in Ukraine’s future. Trump has instructed Bessent to discuss it with Zelenskyy.

“Ukraine’s economic and strategic potential aligns directly with U.S. interests in securing economic security and resilience amid ongoing tensions with Russia and China. Retaining control of contested or threatened resources should be a strategic imperative for the United States during peace negotiations to ensure access to those resources, as well as to deny Russia and China access to those same strategic materials,” CFR expert Heidi Crebo-Rediker writes in this Ukraine Policy Brief.

Powering the AI Revolution

The United States may not need a massive energy build-out to power its AI ambitions. CFR expert Varun Sivaram unpacks a new study that argues the existing U.S. electricity system already has the capacity to power massive additions of data centers.

Across the Globe

Gaza cease-fire tension. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday that Israel will resume fighting in Gaza if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages by Saturday. Hamas had said Monday it would delay Saturday’s incremental release due to alleged Israeli violations of the truce. Separately, Trump met yesterday with Jordan’s king, who said he rejected the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Jordan agreed to accept two thousand sick children from the territory, and Trump suggested he was backing off a previous threat to withhold aid from Jordan.

 

Responses to steel, aluminum tariffs. South Korea’s acting president said he would seek talks with Washington over 25 percent steel and aluminum tariffs that Trump announced Monday, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke about trade in what she called a “good discussion” yesterday with U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Traders began marking up U.S. metals prices after Trump’s announcement. Some U.S. industry groups, such as the American Primary Aluminum Association, praised the tariffs. But the head of the Washington-based Aluminum Association said the United States lacks domestic smelting capacity to fully supply the industry with input materials.

 

Sudan rejects truce overture. Sudan’s army dismissed a call from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for a cease-fire during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Sudan, as well as UN experts, say that the UAE arms the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the country’s civil war. In recent days, the RSF has staged attacks on El Fasher, the last major army-held city in the Darfur region.

 

China’s space programs in Africa. Beijing can access data and images collected from its previously announced space investments in Africa, and Chinese personnel stay long-term at those space facilities, Reuters reported. Such partnerships are a boon for Beijing’s global surveillance and space power ambitions. Asked if China was using equipment in Africa for surveillance, a Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington said the U.S. “is not in a position to smear or defame China.” Last year, NASA started building its first ground station on the continent, in South Africa.

 

Italy’s mafia crackdown. Italian police arrested more than one hundred people in a sting operation against the Cosa Nostra mafia syndicate yesterday. Italy’s ‘Ndrangheta crime group has today become more powerful than Cosa Nostra, which carried out large-scale attacks in the 1980s and 1990s. But Italian authorities said the scale of yesterday’s operation shows how Cosa Nostra, which is based in Sicily, was able to regenerate. 

 

Tesla in China. Tesla opened a $200 million large-scale battery factory in Shanghai yesterday, its first such factory outside the United States. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who is also a special government employee in the Trump administration, could play a role if Trump negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping to lower trade tensions, analysts said.

 

Iranian journalists pardoned. Iran’s judiciary pardoned two journalists who had been charged after they reported on the 2022 death of Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini in state custody. News of Amini’s death sparked mass antigovernment protests. The journalists were temporarily released from prison last year and partially acquitted; now, they are fully cleared of charges.

 

Canada’s fentanyl czar. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has named a head of Canada’s anti-fentanyl trafficking efforts. While U.S. government data says less than 1 percent of fentanyl seized crossing U.S. borders comes from Canada, “any amount of fentanyl is too much,” the Canadian prime minister’s office said. The move follows a border security pledge Trudeau made last week in an effort to delay threatened tariffs from Trump.

Securing Space:
A Plan for U.S. Action

CFR’s latest Task Force report asserts that the United States needs to take action to maintain leadership in an increasingly strategic realm.

Read the report
Read the Task Force Report: Securing Space, A Plan for U.S. Action

The Day Ahead

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wraps up an Asia tour in Indonesia.

     

  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington for a series of bilateral meetings.

     

  • A U.S. Senate committee debates the Arctic and Greenland’s importance to U.S. geostrategic interests.

A New U.S. Grand Strategy

Journalist Robert D. Kaplan sits down with CFR’s James M. Lindsay to discuss how the world’s growing interconnectedness is likely to produce greater conflict and chaos—and what it means for U.S. grand strategy. 

 

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