The Indo-Pacific is a crucial arena for U.S. foreign policy and for the alliances and partnerships that influence global trade and security. We recently asked a team of RAND researchers to assess the key issues, objectives, and outlook for the region. Their insights offer invaluable guidance during this critical period of leadership transition in Washington.
Here's a sample of what our experts had to say:
Jeffrey Hornung says that Japan will likely be focused on ensuring that it remains a vital part of U.S. strategy: “I suspect officials will be reminding Washington often of the alignment of their strategic interests and the critical role Japan plays in supporting the United States both regionally and globally.”
According to Miyeon Oh, the current political crisis and leadership vacuum in South Korea is adding to the complex security environment on and around the Korean Peninsula. These factors also present obstacles for potentially reopening denuclearization talks with North Korea, she says.
Russia's priorities in the Indo-Pacific have been transformed by its war in Ukraine, says Samuel Charap, adding that it’s vital for Washington to remember that Russia has “often demonstrated its ability to undermine U.S. initiatives in Asia.”
Raymond Kuo explains that Taiwan has two key goals: enhancing its economic relationship with the United States and bolstering its ability to defend itself against coercion by China.
Beijing is watching Washington with “anxious and uncertain optimism,” says Jude Blanchette. “The Xi administration is communicating that while it doesn't want a trade war with the United States, this time around it has developed a toolkit that it feels better positions it to inflict asymmetric pain on the U.S. economy.”
The U.S. national security community should take the prospect of artificial general intelligence (AGI) seriously. However, the pace and progress of AGI’s emergence is shrouded in uncertainty, making it difficult to identify potential threats and opportunities. A new RAND paper provides a starting point for policymakers and analysts, highlighting five hard problems that AGI might pose for national security. These include the sudden emergence of AGI-enabled “wonder weapons,” a systemic shift brought on by AGI that alters the balance of global power, and the possibility that AGI could empower nonexperts to develop weapons of mass destruction. The authors write that navigating this uncertain future will require a U.S. strategy that is “anticipatory and adaptive, recognizing the dual nature of AGI as both a promise and a peril.”
It’s now been more than a month since the New Year's Day terror attack that killed 14 people and injured dozens in New Orleans. (The city has also since hosted the Super Bowl, thankfully without any major security issues.) It’s unclear whether this specific incident was preventable, but there are ways to make future attacks more difficult. For instance, RAND research has shown that a layered approach to security works, because it requires would-be attackers to overcome multiple security measures at different levels. It’s also important for the public to know the key signs of a potential plot and to know where to report them.
Applications are open for Pardee RAND Graduate School's new Master of National Security Policy degree program. Full-time and part-time schedules are available at our campuses in Santa Monica, CA, and Arlington, VA.
