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Weekend Reads
There is a widespread view in Europe and beyond that the United States, under President Donald Trump, will work against the rest of the world—and Europe in particular.
But the principal author of President Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy, Hudson’s Nadia Schadlow, argues that the president’s identification of key problems in the transatlantic relationship should be seen as a first step toward making progress on them. Her four key insights are below.
Key Insights
1. Trump will continue to ask Europeans to take security seriously.
As he did during his first term, President Trump will continue to ask Europeans to take security seriously and to step up. He has not been the only president to voice concerns about Europe’s minimal dedication to self-defense. In 2016, then President Barack Obama stated that “Europe has sometimes been complacent about its own defense.” Similarly, a recent European Commission report stated that Europe must tend to the “new reality” it faces. These insights are the perfect foundation for working with the new Trump team on both the military capabilities and operational concepts that can improve security in Europe.
2. Trump will emphasize the geopolitical risks of Europe’s energy policies.
Trump received backlash in his first term for criticizing Germany for its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. While that has changed since Russia’s invasion, Trump is likely to point out that Europe still depends on Russian liquified natural gas (LNG), which is not sanctioned. In response, Trump will almost certainly seek arrangements that favor the increase of US LNG.
3. Trump will likely seek European alignment with US efforts to oppose China’s increasing political, economic, and military aggression.
Trump has demonstrated his view that economic and material dependencies eventually lead to an erosion of political autonomy. Therefore, to resist Chinese revisionism, Trump wants Europe to reclaim its status as a capable and reliable US partner by asserting greater independence across a variety of areas. This process can start, as previously mentioned, with expanded US-European energy cooperation—which will give Europe a solid foundation on which to rebuild its economic-industrial base and diminish Chinese leverage over European decision-making.
4. Trump will take a “peace through strength” approach to ending the war in Ukraine.
While there is a common perception that Trump will prioritize a “friendly” relationship with Russia, the president’s statements so far tell a different story. During a phone call, Trump purportedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against escalating the war, while reminding him of the US military’s significant presence in Europe. The interaction is one example that, as Trump’s former national security advisor Robert O’Brien observed, the second Trump administration will take seriously the mantra of preserving “peace through strength.”
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
Trump’s confidence, understanding of America’s competitive advantages and limitations, decisiveness, and negotiating skills will be central to the ways that he addresses today’s challenges, writes Nadia Schadlow.
“American leadership means shaping a world that is advantageous to American interests,” said Nadia Schadlow on Memos to the President.
Matthew Boyse and an expert panel discussed the state of Western sanctions against Russia and how applying additional pressure could give President Trump more leverage to end the war on favorable terms.
