New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
No. 99 - March 12, 2025
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Photo Credit: mapman/Shutterstock
A Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
From tariffs and terminations to trillions in proposed federal spending cuts, you may be wondering what effect the headlines out of DC are having on the local economy. While it is still too early to see full impacts in the indicators we routinely track, these are extraordinary measures that will shape New York City’s economy in the months to come.
Changes at the federal level have already endangered the City’s finances. Just one day after publishing our last newsletter, we sounded the alarm about the Trump Administration brazenly seizing $80 million in Congressionally authorized FEMA funds out of the City’s bank account. The fight to recoup the money continues in the courts, but the episode shows the challenges ahead of us.
Data show signs that businesses and households alike are bracing for the fallout of the new national posture. Business sentiment is now at a 14-month low, and consumer confidence has soured. Trump’s trade wars risk worsening the affordability crisis at a time when New Yorkers are already confronting high rents and struggling to keep up with the costs of everyday goods.
There are some bright spots. Though the rental market remains tight, housing production is the highest it’s been in well over a decade. And the data continue to show that congestion pricing is working. Comparing year-over-year ridership during the two-month period before and after the policy went into effect suggests congestion pricing has directly boosted subway and bus ridership by three and four percentage points respectively.
Tourism, the focus of this month’s spotlight [[link removed]] , is also strong. Hotel capacity has grown faster in New York City than in any other major city, and occupancy is also well above the national average (85 percent versus 63 percent). And after the pandemic wreaked havoc on the industry, Broadway is firmly back. New Yorkers across the creative economy [[link removed]] – artists who make the city such a vibrant and desirable destination for tourists from around the world – are getting their curtain call again.
But as I said in my testimony [[link removed]] on the Adams Administration’s Preliminary Budget for next fiscal year, we need to be more proactive in safeguarding the city and its finances during this tumultuous period. That is why I’ve proposed a $1 billion “Protecting New York City Reserve” to blunt the worst effects of funding cuts that Trump and Congress are poised and eager to make.
In spite of Trump’s attacks on his hometown, people want to come to New York City. We need to make sure the boroughs are places that New Yorkers can afford to live and thrive.
Finally, on a programing note, for the next three months, our Monthly Economic Newsletter will not be sent via email due to City Charter regulations surrounding the 2025 primary election. We will resume the monthly emails in July, but until then please find them on our website [[link removed]] !
[[link removed]]
Brad Lander
Table of Contents
* The U.S. Economy [[link removed]]
* New York City Economy [[link removed]]
* City Finances [[link removed]]
Highlights
* The U.S. job market has shown signs of softening. Payroll job growth has downshifted in the first two months of 2025, unemployment has edged up, and labor force participation has slipped.


* From 2019 to 2023, employment in NYC followed a roller-coaster path due to the pandemic but wound up slightly higher. However, within the city, employment still lags in Manhattan, whereas it is up in the outer boroughs—mostly due to rapid job creation in Health & Social Services.


* Consumer confidence has slipped in early 2025, both in New York State and nationally, though, in contrast with the nation, confidence statewide is roughly on par with pre-pandemic levels.


* Manhattan’s office market continued its gradually strengthening trend in February, though office markets in the outer boroughs have been mostly flat.


* The home sales market has softened, while the rental market has remained tight. More new housing units were added in 2024 than in any year in decades, yet the tightness in the rental market suggests that demand still far exceeds supply.


* Congestion pricing appears to have led to a further pickup in transit ridership and quicker travel times for vehicles in the zone.


* The number of asylum-seekers in City shelters continued to trend down fairly sharply in February, while the number of people in shelters who are not asylum-seekers declined only slightly.


* Preliminary data suggest that winter bonuses paid to NYC earners grew briskly this year, rising 37% through the first week of March.


* Sales tax revenue growth has been subdued this fiscal year—largely because prices of taxable goods have been much more restrained than prices of groceries (which are not taxed).
View the March Newsletter [[link removed]]
Spotlight
Tourism
This month’s spotlight focuses on New York City’s tourism cluster, tracking it over time, comparing it with other major cities, and assessing its impact on tax revenues. This study also highlights some ways in which tourism’s value to New York City goes beyond its direct economic and fiscal contributions.
Read the Spotlight [[link removed]]
In Case You Missed It
Over the past month, the Comptroller’s Office released the following announcements on the state of NYC’s economy and finances:
1. Annual Report on M/WBE Procurement [[link removed]]
2. Recent Trends in the City’s Business Income Taxes [[link removed]]
3. NEW AUDIT: Estate Asset Identification and Management Practices of the New York County Public Administrator’s Office [[link removed]]
4. Comptroller Lander’s Comments on New York City’s Preliminary Budget [[link removed]]
5. New York City Quarterly Cash Report [[link removed]]
6. New York City Cash Balance Projection March 1, 2025 [[link removed]]
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Office of the New York City Comptroller
Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
United States
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