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A Feb. 5 protest against the Trump administration’s push to shrink the federal government outside the U.S. Office of Personnel Management in Washington, D.C. Photo by Nathan Howard/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE TRUMP FIRINGS SO FAR
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

A stream of government firings has filled the news. ([link removed])

We have a yearning to get our hands around precisely how large these cuts are and what they mean.

This is not easy. In some agencies, planned layoffs were reversed. ([link removed]) And in most agencies, there has been no or little public notice about what is happening.

We have spent weeks talking with federal workers. And thus, for this week’s newsletter, we’d like to focus on two things: what we know about these firings and what it means to workers and agencies.

Which federal workers have been affected so far?

Let’s look at some of the facets of the federal workforce that have lost staff. Consider this a snapshot of the landscape right now, with the caveat that more actions may take place after this week’s email.
* U.S. Forest Service: 3,400 workers laid off ([link removed])
* Department of Energy: some 1,000 workers laid off ([link removed])
* Veterans Affairs: more than 1,000 workers fired ([link removed])
* National Institutes of Health: Between 1,000 and 1,200 workers fired ([link removed])
* Bureau of Land Management: 800 workers fired ([link removed])
* National Park Service: 1,000 workers fired
* Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: About 750 workers fired ([link removed])
* Small Business Administration: About 720 workers fired ([link removed])
* Federal Aviation Administration: About 400 workers fired ([link removed])
* Environmental Protection Agency: About 400 workers fired ([link removed])
* Federal Emergency Management Agency: More than 200 workers fired ([link removed])

Other agencies, such as the General Services Administration ([link removed]) , Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Education ([link removed]) , have had dozens of staffers cut.

The hardest hit agency. Currently the largest source of layoffs ([link removed]) is the U.S. Agency for International Development.

So far, more than 12,000 American workers — most of them contractors — have been laid off, according to Stop-WorkUSAID ([link removed]) , a group tracking the cuts. Organizer Sadie Healy told us they tallied this figure based on individual names they have vetted. The actual total is likely larger, she said.

Thousands more at USAID are also under a stop-work order and face potential firing, depending on a court ruling, which has frozen action against them ([link removed]) for the moment.

Who are these workers? They vary, but for most of these agencies listed, they are probationary (or “conditional”) employees, meaning those who have been in their job for under a year. That can include longtime federal workers who moved positions in the last year.

But permanent federal workers in many agencies are preparing for possible layoffs, known as “reductions in force,” or to be placed on administrative leave. This is the approach Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency team took with USAID by first cutting contractors, then probationary workers, then looking at others.

What do supporters of the cuts say? Musk and those backing him have said that the U.S. bureaucracy has grown wild and uncontrolled, comparing what he sees to weeding.

“I think we do need to delete entire agencies, as opposed to leave part of them behind,” he said Thursday. “If you don’t remove the roots of the weed, then it’s easy for the weed to grow back.”

Where does this put things, historically?

Here is what we have found so far.
* Trump’s early cuts, hovering around 21,000+ total, based on the list above, dwarfs Reagan’s 1981 cuts. In the first year of his budget cuts, Reagan laid off 2,840 workers ([link removed]) , the Washington Post reported at that time.
* USA Today found ([link removed]) that when you combine these layoffs with the 75,000 workers who took the “deferred resignation” exit, some 4 percent of the government’s 2.3 million workers will be gone.

What does this mean to the federal workers themselves?
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Outside the U.S. Capitol on Monday, protesters gathered to support federal workers and criticize recent mass firings. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk say the firings are aimed at making the government more efficient. Photo by Lisa Desjardins/PBS News
We’ve been in touch with dozens of federal workers. Here are a few and how they see things right now.

Note: These workers have requested anonymity for fear of losing their jobs and the unpredictable targeting of federal agencies.
* An IRS worker texted me two nights ago, saying, “I wish I could sleep.” The worker is probationary and the job has been an economic lifeline for them after experiencing some homelessness, even sleeping in a tent while training for this position. “I needed this,” they wrote, “I’m ready to fight for all of this.” On Tuesday, the worker said they received a video from their union, notifying probationary workers at IRS that their jobs could be cut tomorrow.
* A staffer at the General Services Administration, echoing other federal workers, just wants to do their job. “[There is a] lack of policy direction,” they wrote. “It’s really unclear what we should be working on, other than preparing justifications for our jobs and programs to not be eliminated.” The staffer also said there is a "'Hunger Games' sort of situation where we don’t know which of our partners in our agency, or others, will be alive in the next round."
* An Education Department worker wrote, “I love my job and I know I make a difference.” But workers are “scared, anxious, angry,” they wrote. This longtime staffer at the department has a child in need of hospitalization and is worried they will lose insurance. The employee also noted that a younger co-worker has started a second job as a dog walker, concerned that they will be fired from the civil service soon.
* A USAID staffer posted overseas wrote, “You caught me on an angry night.” They and other colleagues have been told they need to be ready to pack up their families potentially in weeks, on orders of DOGE and Trump. “They claim they will give compassionate extensions … but have yet to explain the process for requesting an extension,” the staffer told me. “When they are not being intentionally cruel, they are just downright incompetent.”

That same USAID staffer said the Trump rhetoric has sparked investigations of the agency in other countries.

“There’s nothing we can do because we have been forbidden to answer any questions,” they wrote. “The hardest part is seeing so many Americans (and even close family members) gleefully cheering DOGE on with no regard for the devastation this is causing.”

We want to share more stories from folks affected by these cuts. If you are a federal worker or have insights into what is happening in the government now, a secure way to reach me is at [email protected]. (mailto:[email protected])
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: How the start of Trump’s second term looks like some autocracies. ([link removed])
* One Big Question: What are the guardrails when the president does something illegal? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: European leaders are left scrambling ([link removed]) as the U.S. nears talks with Russia on Ukraine.
* Perspectives: A former U.S. envoy on why Trump is engaging with Russia over Ukraine talks. ([link removed])

WILL TRUMP’S OIL PROMISES BE A BOOM OR BUST?
[link removed]
Watch the segment in the player above.
Since taking office, President Donald Trump has declared a “national energy emergency.” ([link removed])

So far, Trump’s energy agenda has started a process of reversing Biden-era actions on green energy. ([link removed]) This includes slashing environmental regulations, boosting domestic drilling and fast-tracking pipeline projects.

Across Oklahoma and other petroleum-producing states, industry workers and business owners say Trump, who promised to “unleash” oil and gas production, has injected new life ([link removed]) into the oil and gas sector.

Rhiannon Kymer is optimistic on what could lie beyond the horizon.
[link removed]

Rhiannon Kymer and her father, Henry Burdick, stand outside their new oilfield supply store in Weatherford, Oklahoma, for its grand opening. Photo courtesy of Kymer
She and her father opened their own oilfield supply store in Weatherford, Oklahoma, at the start of this year. The 44-year-old was hoping Trump would win another term in the Oval Office.

Now that he’s there, Kymer’s betting on a boom.

“When he said ‘Drill, baby, drill,’ I took that as a sign that better days are ahead,” she said. “Business has been steady so far, but I’m expecting things to really take off in the coming months.”

Roy Birdine is more cautious. He’s been in the industry for three decades and has ridden the waves of hiring sprees and layoffs throughout the year. Birdine, 53, is currently filling in as a long-haul truck driver while he keeps an eye out for jobs in the oil and gas sector.

“I think he’ll be good for the industry, I just don’t know if that will translate to more jobs,” Birdine said of Trump and his promises. “The rollback of some of these regulations is great for the company bottom lines, but I’m not so sure it’s going to put people back on rigs.”

Tom Kloza, a senior oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, said forecasts show that the Trump administration is in line to increase oil production in the U.S., but recent job cuts at Chevron ([link removed]) and BP ([link removed]) are also a sign that jobs in the sector might not be as promising.

“We’re not necessarily looking at any meaningful lift in industry jobs,” he said. There may be additional jobs in places outside the U.S., like in Guyana, Namibia and other faraway destinations, “but Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska, North Dakota and some of the big players might at best be flat.”

Plus, there’s Trump himself as a factor, he added.

“There’s a circus of uncertainty with Trump,” Kloza said. “You just don’t know what’s going to happen.”

READ MORE ([link removed])
More on who’s affected from Trump’s early actions:
* Watch: “Chaos and confusion” as Trump’s mass firings affect the basic functions of government. ([link removed])
* Major Financial Pressure: Farmers feel the weight of Trump’s policies with the shutdown of aid. ([link removed])
* Trump’s Energy Policy: How Trump is aggressively working to dismantle the U.S. efforts to fight climate change. ([link removed])

WHAT IS IMPOUNDMENT? AND HOW IS TRUMP VOWING TO USE IT?
[link removed]

A copy of the New York Post featuring a mugshot of President Donald Trump hangs nearby other presidential portraits at the White House. Photo by Nathan Howard/Reuters
By Hannah Grabenstein
Reporter, General Assignment

President Donald Trump has long argued that the executive branch has the power to spend or freeze federal funds, something most experts say is Congress’ purview. ([link removed])

In his early weeks in office, Trump signed executive orders to freeze nearly all foreign aid and, for 24 hours or so, all federal grants and loans.

It is Congress — not the executive branch — that wields the “power of the purse,” ([link removed]) as spelled out in Article 1, Section 9, Clause 7 of the U.S. Constitution.

While two judges have hit pause on Trump’s federal spending freeze, his administration has signaled the matter is far from resolved.

The showdown is over a centuries-old process called “impoundment.” This is when the president, whose administration is tasked with distributing funds, doesn’t allow congressionally appropriated dollars to be spent.

But Congress’ power of the purse “really does preclude the president from unilaterally deciding not to spend money that Congress has already approved,” said Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy program at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “It’s the core demonstration of the checks and balances that exist within the federal government.”

Within that long-understood framework, the president has some options. More than 50 years ago, Congress passed the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act, which gives the president two ways to withhold funds. (We go into more detail on those options here. ([link removed]) ) It also gave the Government Accountability Office comptroller general the authority to sue if the executive branch has illegally impounded money.

But the Trump administration wants to do away with the ICA entirely.

“The president ran on the notion that the Impoundment Control Act is unconstitutional. I agree with that,” Russell Vought, Trump’s new OMB director, said in his Jan. 22 confirmation hearing. ([link removed])

READ MORE ([link removed])
THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION
By Joshua Barajas
Senior Editor, Digital

Under the banner of President Donald Trump’s anti-DEI efforts, the Defense Department declared in a memo that identity months are “dead” ([link removed]) at the agency.

Ripple effects of this guidance are seen elsewhere.

Our question: Trump issued a proclamation for Black History Month, but the Maryland National Guard announced it would pull away from an event that honored the life of which famed abolitionist?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which Supreme Court justice has sworn in several of Trump’s Cabinet members so far?

The answer: Clarence Thomas. ([link removed]) A CNN analyst reported that the swearing-in ceremonies for Cabinet members is traditionally something done by the vice president. Justice Brett Kavanaugh also swore in a couple of Cabinet officials, CNN reported. Clarence and his wife, Ginni, were previously the subjects of multiple ProPublica investigations that revealed ([link removed]) undisclosed ([link removed]) connections ([link removed]) between them ([link removed]) and GOP mega donors.

Congratulations to our winners: Robin Davis and Vicki Nielsen!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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