What will happen in the German election?

This Sunday, the German people head to the polls in one of the most important German elections since 1949. With the far-right AfD on the march, escalation in Ukraine and a meddling U.S. Vice-President, what can you expect from this seismic election...

Hi?John,?

The world of international politics is, to put it lightly, rather volatile at the moment. With a Trumpian sword of Damocles hanging over European economics and security, the continent feels unstable and nervy.?

Whether it is tariffs or the apparent abandonment of Ukraine, this is not a context where any leader would wish to be fighting a generation defining election.?

And yet, for Olaf Scholz the current German chancellor, this is the predicament within which he finds himself. The pressure on his country and himself was made evident by his decision to become the first of the amassed European leaders to leave Emmanuel Macron's emergency meeting on Ukraine.



So what will happen? Despite the significance of the German election, we actually do have quite a clear idea about what is most likely to happen, as much as one can be in such an unpredictable world.

First, it seems likely that the centre-right Christian Democrat party will end the day as the largest party, ensuring that their leader Friedrich Merz will become Germany's new chancellor.

Second, it seems likely that the AfD, after some rather unprecedented support from Vice-President JD Vance, will secure their best ever election result. Just over twelve years old, the party will likely become the second largest in Germany's Bundestag.

Third, incoming chancellor Merz has doubled down on his commitment to maintain the 'firewall' against the AfD, ruling out forming a coalition with the far-right party. This means it is most likely that the CDU will form a coalition with the SPD (the centre-left) party of Olaf Scholz. This famed 'Grand Coalliton' was favoured by Angela Merkel during her time in office and will likely deliver a slender, but perhaps unstable, majority.

The current polling projections are as follows;

CDU: ~30%

AfD: ~21%

SPD: ~ 16%

Greens: ~13%

The current seat projections?are as follows, with 316 needed for a majority;

CDU: 207

AfD: 142

SPD: 112

Greens: 95

<[link removed]>Read the full blog <[link removed]>The indications that America is moving toward both a more isolationist and protectionist foreign and economic policy respectively further highlight the importance of not just a strong and stable Germany, but a Europe and Britain united against economic vandalism and Russian aggression.

The time for a deeper relationship with Germany and the EU as a whole has never been more important for the UK. No matter the result of the German election, the UK must deepen its alliance with Europe.

Best wishes,?



Joshua

Joshua Edwicker
Content Officer





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