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Edited by: James Desio and Carter Hutchinson

Good morning, and happy Thursday!

In today’s newsletter, we examine the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) attempt to cut federal spending, the politics of USAID, and President Trump’s impact on Canada’s elections.

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1. DOGE Developments

Topline: The success of DOGE's efforts to cut the federal workforce remains to be seen. AEI’s James Capretta writes that DOGE-initiated personnel cuts have the potential to save $20 billion a year, but only if Congress gets on board. 

The Fine Print:

• In 2025, there were expected to be about 2.3 million federal civilian workers with pay and benefits totaling $476 billion.
• If reforms by DOGE cut the federal workforce by 100,000 workers, they could save $20 billion a year. 

What About Congress? The potential $20 billion in savings would occur only if Congress simultaneously reduces appropriations for the impacted agencies. If not, the spending that would have gone toward salaries can be redistributed to other line items. Capretta concludes that the current policies being pursued are most likely to widen future deficits by at least $1.5 trillion over the coming decade. 

“It is still not clear if DOGE will transition into a useful re-engineering of how the government works with better information or remain a blunt instrument for dismantling select corners of the federal enterprise that the administration finds distasteful (a less enduring endeavor).” —James Capretta

2. The Politics of USAID

Topline: Democrats pulling out all the stops to resist Trump’s demolition of USAID may be misreading the politics of working-class voters, AEI’s Ruy Teixeira finds. While USAID does important and useful work, Teixeira writes that voters know little about their work and value—and that Democrats won’t win back working-class voters by marching in the street in defense of government bureaucracies.

• The Numbers: 69 percent of voters thought government spending on foreign aid was “too much,” 20 percent of voters found foreign aid spending to be “about right,” and just 10 percent of voters found foreign aid spending to be “too little.”

Disillusion with Democrats: Teixeira notes that a focus on issues that impact domestic workers personally could be more effective as a messaging tool. Support for domestic spending on programs like health care, education, infrastructure, and Social Security is very strong.

“And unsurprisingly, anti–foreign aid sentiment runs highest among working-class voters, precisely the people who have been defecting from the Democrats to Trump, and without whose votes the party cannot recover. Cutting foreign aid spending is about ten points more popular among voters without college degrees than among the college-educated.” —Ruy Teixeira

3. Trump’s Impact on Canadian Politics

Topline: Canada’s Conservative Party has outpaced the Liberals since 2022 in popular support, but AEI’s Colin Dueck writes that Trump’s recent tariff threats have brought on a resurgence of support for liberals.

• Since Trump proposed a 25 percent tariff on Canada, Liberals have focused their platform on Canadian national pride and independence. That message has received broad support beyond the Liberal Party.

“In the United States, nationalism and the Left are antithetical.  In Canada, they are now intimately connected and have been for some time. Politically, that’s a powerful combination, and Liberal leaders know it. It is for this very reason that Liberals contending for their party’s nomination are delighted to run on a platform defending Canadian national pride and independence. And President Trump has served them that issue on a platter.” —Colin Dueck

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