These numbers just don’t work. There is simply no way to achieve this without either politically unpopular offsetting program cuts or an increase in the federal deficit, which would spook the Federal Reserve and cost him the support of Republican fiscal conservatives. Republicans are also divided over whether to repeal or modify the $10,000 limit on tax deductions for state and local taxes paid, which Trump included in his 2017 tax cuts as a way to punish high-expenditure blue
states. But it also punished affluent Republican voters and gave Democrats in swing districts a powerful talking point against Republicans. If the Democrats stay unified in the fight next week over keeping the government open, they can probably hang tough in the sequel over the budget. In his latest move, Trump on Wednesday night surprised House Speaker Mike Johnson by making a demand (via Truth Social, no less) that Congress keep the government open by passing a simple six-month continuing resolution, which would allow spending at current levels. For many Republican fiscal conservatives, that is unacceptable because it continues government spending at the levels of the last Biden budget. Trump’s dog whistle to Republicans is that he is not really spending at those levels because
he is selectively impounding funds. And that’s where Trump loses Democrats. Trump may or may not be able to get the continuing resolution through the House, where the Republicans have just a four-seat majority. But in the Senate, where Republicans have 53 seats, it takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster; and the continuing resolution can’t pass without some Democrats’ votes.
But the politics are tricky. If the government does shut down, who takes the fall? The two shutdowns of 1995 and 1996 did far more political damage to the Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich than to President Clinton. Conversely, the terms of reopening the government in 2013, which included the budget sequester and changes to the Affordable Care Act, made President Obama look weak. In ending the 35-day
shutdown of December 2018-2019, the optics made it look as if Trump had given up more than the Democrats. This time, Democrats need to unite behind one principle: If you want our support for keeping government open, the resolution needs to commit you to opening the whole government. Some Democrats, though, may not want to risk being blamed for the shutdown, and prefer to wait for the fight over the regular budget, where arguably they have the stronger hand by opposing cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. That would be a mistake. If they stay united, they can win both battles.
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