Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Feb. 20, 2025
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China's Economy: Shrinking or Soaring?
There are two competing narratives about China's economy: One is about economic decline, and the other is about growing economic and technological power. These narratives may appear contradictory, says RAND's Gerard DiPippo, but both are true.
China's economy has slowed substantially. Local governments are straining under debt burdens. The property sector has nearly collapsed. Consumer confidence is poor. And China's GDP is no longer catching up to that of the United States.
But China remains the top global manufacturer, leading exports of many goods. Beijing also invests heavily in high-tech sectors and innovates rapidly. (The artificial intelligence company DeepSeek is just the latest example.) The booming tech industry, however, isn't large enough to offset overall weakness in China's "old economy."
What does all this mean for Western policymakers? The main lesson is to not confuse macro and micro trends. Even as China's overall economy faces headwinds, the smaller slice represented by high-tech industries will still present strategic problems for the United States for the foreseeable future, DiPippo says. "It's critical to avoid conflating an economically slowing China with an industrially and technologically weaker China."
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Keeping L.A. Renters Cool
In California, heat waves are becoming more frequent and more severe. In some cases, these events can be deadly, especially for older adults and young children. To reduce deaths from heat waves, Los Angeles County is considering a policy that establishes a maximum indoor temperature for rental units. To help inform the discussion, RAND researchers ran more than 1,000 simulations, assessing a variety of different cooling strategies and requirements across different weather conditions. The goal: find solutions that can keep people safe in severe heat without putting too much strain on the power grid.
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Breaking Down Health Care and Public Health Silos
America's health care and public health systems are not well integrated. According to RAND experts, closing this long-standing gap is key to securing a healthy future for the nation. They outline actions that could be taken now to enhance system efficiency, facilitate timely recognition of diseases, and generate cost savings that benefit all Americans. These measures include enhancing health data systems, strengthening coordination related to chronic disease management, and creating a shared workforce between the health care and public health sectors.
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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Julia Kaufman breaks down findings from a recent study she led on U.S. educators' use of AI tools.
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- RAND's Krista Langeland discusses how AI-enabled satellites might increase U.S. resilience against cyberattacks.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: AI Risks and Benefits in Clinical Care
Wednesday, February 26, 2025 (Online)
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Admissions Webinar: Master of National Security Faculty Panel
Thursday, March 6, 2025 (Online)
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RAND Health Care Workforce Summit
Monday, March 17, 2025 (Washington, D.C.)
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** Learn the Tools of Defense Policy Analysis
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Applications are open for Pardee RAND Graduate School's new Master of National Security Policy degree program. Full-time and part-time schedules are available at our campuses in Santa Monica, CA, and Arlington, VA.
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