From PBS News <[email protected]>
Subject A ‘cautionary number’
Date March 4, 2025 7:46 PM
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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

HOW AMERICANS FEEL ABOUT TRUMP’S FIRST MONTH IN OFFICE
By Matt Loffman,
Senior Producer, Elections

Americans are divided about President Donald Trump’s job performance on the eve of his first address to Congress since returning to the White House, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. ([link removed])

Yet, support for him is higher than at any point during his first term.

The first 43 days of the Trump administration have been a rapid-fire rush of executive actions. The president has signed more than 75 executive orders so far, more than the total number he signed in any single year of his first term.

When Trump addresses Congress on Tuesday ([link removed]) , he’s likely to tout what his administration has done over the last month and a half. He’s taken action to shut down immigration pathways, freeze foreign aid, impose tariffs on trading partners and dramatically scale back the size and scope of the federal government.

In follow-up conversations with PBS News, poll respondents described the president’s first month as everything from “fabulous” to “chaos” to “disaster.” Impressions were divided strongly along party lines, and none of the people we spoke to changed their views of Trump since the election.

The president is benefiting from a political honeymoon, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Trump’s 45 percent approval is a “cautionary number” that is hard to interpret as broad support for his agenda, Miringoff said.

Here’s a look at what the poll found, and where respondents stood heading into the president’s prime-time speech.

Where do people stand on Trump? Forty-nine percent of Americans disapprove of his record so far. Another 45 percent approve, including 36 percent of Americans who strongly approve — another high-water mark for Trump.

56 percent of Americans say the president is rushing to make change without considering the impact of his decisions. That includes two-thirds of independents and 11 percent of Trump voters. Another 43 percent of Americans believe the president is doing what needs to be done to get the government on track.

Is the country headed in the right or wrong direction? This poll found that 45 percent of Americans believe the country is on the right path, up 10 points from December and now at the second-highest point of the last 15 years. Still, the poll found more than half of Americans (54 percent) believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Americans are divided on whether Trump’s actions have improved the country’s standing. Forty-five percent say the president is changing the country for the better while 48 percent say the changes have been for the worse. That includes 54 percent of independents and 5 percent of people who voted for Trump, who Miringoff said may now be feeling some “buyer’s remorse.” Another 7 percent say his actions have not brought about change.

More than half of Americans view cuts to federal spending and the government workforce as going too far. Fifty-five percent of people, including 61 percent of independents, believe the cuts are doing more harm than good. Forty-five percent think they are doing more good than harm. An overwhelming majority of Republicans (84 percent) are supportive of the cuts.

Six in 10 Americans say most federal government employees are essential to the functioning of the United States. Forty percent say the country could function effectively without most federal government employees.

What some respondents said
[link removed]
Watch the segment in the player above.
The president’s supporters, including self-described political independent Dominique Evans from California, like Trump’s efforts to bring about change to government. “Hopefully, it’s for the better,” she said.

“He’s trying to keep his promises,” said Gilbert Diaz, a Republican from Texas who voted for Trump. Diaz is particularly supportive of the president’s actions to shut down the southern border.

“We have to correct the destruction that has happened to our country and our society over the last four years,” he said. “But you cannot turn [around] all the years of damage in one or two or three or four months. It's much easier to destroy things than build them.”

“Dead weight is being cut away,” Pennsylvania Republican Evelyn Ardini said. She likes the cutbacks to the federal workforce implemented by the Trump administration and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, spearheaded by Elon Musk. She, too, urged Trump’s dissenters to “give him some time” for the effects of his policy changes to be felt.

Others say the cuts to government have gone too far.

J.K., a political independent from Michigan who asked to not share his name because he has government contract work, voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in November and is unhappy with the cuts made by the Trump administration so far.

“Everything is going at breakneck speed to dismantle a system that's been standing tall and working for the American people for decades,” he said. “They're performing surgery with a sword and a blindfold, and they're just moving at this breakneck, chaotic speed. And it's unnecessary.”

Tanya Staud is another independent voter who cast a ballot for Harris last year. She suggested she is not opposed to reevaluating government spending priorities, but she objected to the unilateral way the administration — and “King” Trump — is deciding what to cut.

“I agree that some things we should not be funding. We need to watch our spending,” she said. “But Congress is who controls the purse strings.” ([link removed])

On Musk and DOGE

Half of Americans view the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX in a negative light, a 4-point jump from before Trump took office. Another 39 percent view him favorably, up 2 points during the same time period. Perceptions of DOGE are similar, with 39 percent viewing the effort favorably and 44 percent unfavorably.

Three-quarters of Republicans, including voters Diaz and Ardini, like Musk. He’s a “genius,” Diaz said. “I'm not saying Elon Musk is perfect, but at least he's producing something.”

More than 8 in 10 Democrats disagree. Donald Ramber of Texas called Musk a “hatchet man” who is only looking to cut the budget.

A majority of independents (56 percent) also view Musk unfavorably.

On Trump and the courts

Since Trump took office, Americans’ confidence in the system of checks and balances among the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government has dropped dramatically. Just 43 percent believe it is working well right now, a dramatic 23-point drop since December. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans have confidence in the system, but only a third of independents and 20 percent of Democrats agree.

More than half of Americans (56 percent) think checks and balances are not working.

Forty-two percent of Americans believe Trump will abide by court rulings. Three-quarters of Republicans say he will, but only a third of independents and 18 percent of Democrats agree. Fifty-eight percent of Americans don’t have confidence he’ll follow court rulings.
READ MORE ([link removed])

HOW TO WATCH TRUMP’S ADDRESS TO CONGRESS
[link removed]
Watch Trump’s prime-time speech in the player above.
By Joshua Barajas
Senior Editor, Digital

President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday will lay out his vision for the country and his administration, likely touting the aggressive ([link removed]) steps ([link removed]) he’s already taken.

(Brief reminder: This is not a State of the Union address. ([link removed]) )

Watch Trump's prime-time speech with us

Special coverage begins at 9 p.m. EST, on air and online. We'll also have an ASL feed. ([link removed]) Stay tuned after the speech for special analysis.

Who will deliver the responses?
* For Democrats, Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., will respond to Trump’s speech. ([link removed]) Rep. Adriano Espaillat of New York will give a Spanish-language response.
* For progressives, Rep. Lateefah Simon, D-Cali., will give a response ([link removed]) from the Working Families Party.

At 11 a.m. EST Wednesday, correspondents Lisa Desjardins and Laura Barron-Lopez join Deema Zein for highlights and key takeaways from the evening.

Tell your friends and family how they can watch this event. Share this email with them. ([link removed]) They can also sign-up for our politics newsletter here. ([link removed])
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López on three things to watch during ([link removed]) Trump’s first address to Congress.
* One Big Question: Why are Americans divided about Trump’s overall job performance so far? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: Why is Mexico asking the Supreme Court to weigh in on gun trafficking? ([link removed]) Listen to Tuesday’s oral arguments in the unusual gun challenge here. ([link removed])
* Perspectives: Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa on threats to U.S. democracy. ([link removed])

THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Whatever the condition of the country, the state of the union is “strong” — at least according to nearly every president ([link removed]) for the past several decades.

We know, we know: There is no State of the Union this year.

A president gives an address to a joint session of Congress in their first year in office. But we couldn’t resist looking back at how each president has finished the thought.

Our question: Which U.S. president was the first to attach the word “is” to the “State of the Union,” creating a hallmark turn of phrase?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: When did the Supreme Court suspend the death penalty? When did it return?

The answer: In the history of the death penalty, two dates stand out: ([link removed]) The high court suspended capital punishment in 1972, though it was a temporary ruling. ([link removed]) Justices reinstated it four years later, in 1976.

Congratulations to our winners: Barry Weinstein and Harry Hardy!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.

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