What are the conditions that might lead to a protracted conflict between the United States and China? In a new report, RAND researchers consider nine hypothetical scenarios that involve sustained military operations by China and the United States. These include U.S. intervention in an attempted seizure of Taiwan by Beijing, a collision between U.S. and Chinese satellites, and an indirect fight between the United States and China through proxies in Southeast Asia. Examining these and other scenarios could help defense planners better understand what might lead to an open-ended U.S.-China war—and how to prevent such a conflict in the first place.

Last month's Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris showcased the evolution of Europe's AI strategy, says RAND's Marzia Giambertoni. Over the last year, Europe has emerged not only as a regulatory pioneer but as an “innovation laboratory” where AI models are tested and refined for practical application. The real question, she says, isn't whether Europe can compete with U.S. and Chinese AI capabilities but whether the continent is “already charting a distinct path that could reshape how we think about technological development in regulated markets.” However, a sobering reality remains: Total European AI funding remains modest compared with that of U.S. competitors.