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PORTSIDE CULTURE

THESE FOODS WILL LIKELY GET MORE EXPENSIVE AFTER TRUMP’S TARIFFS
TAKE EFFECT  
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Stacey Leasca
February 3, 2025
Food & Wine
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_ There may be “some pain” Trump admitted of his tariff schemes;
“But we will Make America Great Again, and it will all be worth the
price that must be paid.” _

The United States is the largest export destination for Canadian
maple syrup, representing 61.2% of the total. , Food & Wine/ Getty
Images

 

President Donald Trump followed through on his campaign promise to
implement sweeping tariffs on goods produced in Mexico, China, and, in
a surprise move, Canada — the United States’ top three trading
partners, which, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, collectively
accounted for 42% of total imports in 2024.

By declaring an “economic emergency,” the Queens-born President
placed a 10% tariff on all imports from China and a 25% tariff on
imports from both Mexico and Canada. The only exception, as reported
by the Associated Press, is on oil, natural gas, and electricity
imported from Canada, which will instead be taxed at 10%. The order
also grants the President the authority to raise these rates further
if other countries retaliate — a scenario that has already begun to
unfold. Canada has already retaliated with its own tariffs on
American-made goods, and Mexico has vowed to do the same.

“Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!),” Trump
wrote on Sunday on his Truth Social, the alt-tech platform he launched
in 2022 after he was banned from Twitter and Facebook. “But we will
Make America Great Again, and it will all be worth the price that must
be paid.”

It’s crucial to note that the burden of these tariffs will not fall
on Canada, Mexico, China, or any other targeted country but rather on
American consumers. Tariffs function as a tax on imported goods, costs
that are often passed down to everyday shoppers. As a result, prices
for many of the foods and products Americans rely on are expected to
rise.

But how much “pain” should you really expect?

“First, prices will rise for imports from Mexico and Canada. While
importers could absorb part of the tariff, historical evidence
suggests most of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers.
Prices are likely to increase close to the tariff rate, meaning a 25%
tariff on food imports from Mexico and Canada will likely increase
prices for imported goods by a similar margin,” Dr. Shawn DuBravac,
a PhD-trained economist and founder of the Avrio Institute, a
strategic growth consulting and trendcasting firm, told Food & Wine.
“This price adjustment would likely happen in a single step rather
than gradually over time, though some lag may occur as existing
contracts and inventories deplete.”

According to DuBravac, U.S. importers — including retail and
wholesale — will likely start seeking alternative sources from other
countries. However, he cautioned that this “may not be feasible for
all products,” adding that sourcing substitutes from other nations
or “shifting to domestic production could take time and potentially
result in higher costs.”

As retailers and wholesalers absorb these price increases, they are
expected to pass them on to consumers, which DuBravac says could lead
to “reduced demand and potential job loss.” He noted that the
economic fallout from these tariffs will not be confined to the U.S.,
adding that “GDP (economic growth) will be weaker in all three
countries as a result.”

With these tariffs now in place, consumers should brace for rising
costs on a range of everyday goods. Here are a few specific products
that will likely get more expensive in the coming days and weeks once
these tariffs take effect.

Mexico

According to the USDA, in 2023, Mexico accounted for 16.3% of U.S.
agricultural exports and 23.3% of U.S. agricultural imports, making it
the nation’s largest trade partner. The U.S. imports a large amount
of goods from the nation, including everything from cars to gems,
plastics to oil, and even medical devices. It also imports a massive
amount of food. As the USDA reported, 63% of U.S. vegetable imports
and 47% of U.S. fruit and nut imports come from Mexico. Here are a few
key items to watch.

Avocados

The Produce Blue Book reports that the U.S. imported “more than 2.4
billion pounds of Mexican Hass avocados” between July 2023 and June
2024. It added two important points: “With avocado consumption at
9.2 pounds per capita, only Mexico can currently supply enough
avocados to meet the growing American demand for the heart-healthy
fruit with good fats and nearly 20 vitamins and minerals.” All these
avocados also help the U.S. economy, “contributing to $7.5 billion
in U.S. economic output and more than 42,000 U.S. jobs for American
workers” through everything from processing, retail, marketing, and
distribution.

Current price: $0.89 and $1.78 per pound (source)

Beer

“The most popular beer brand in the entire country right now is
Modelo,” Malcolm Purinton, an assistant teaching professor of
history at Northeastern University, whose work focuses on the history
of beer, brewing, and trade, wrote in a post for the university.
“The thing is, the demand isn’t going to go away, but the costs
are going to go up.” According to the university, In 2023, the U.S.
imported about $5.7 billion in beer. So, how much will a new bottle of
Modelo cost? Roth MKM analyst Bill Kirk shared with clients, “We
estimate Constellation [the parent company of Modelo] would need a 12%
beer price increase to fully offset a 25% increase in beer [costs of
goods sold], i.e., keep gross profit dollars flat.”

Current price: Price for a 12-pack of Modelo cans at Walmart on Feb.
3: $16.27 (source)

Fresh berries

The Packer reported that between December 2021 and November 2022, the
second-biggest U.S. import category of Mexican produce was berries
(excluding strawberries). The produce was valued at $2.49 billion,
marking a 15% increase year over year and accounting for 59% of all
U.S. berry imports that year. Strawberries were their own category,
with Mexico accounting for  85% of total U.S. strawberry imports in
2022. However, the report noted that strawberry imports from Mexico
have decreased over the last five years.

Current price: $1.99 and $3.46 per pound for strawberries (source).

Fresh peppers

According to data from the Economic Research Service (ERS), in 2022,
the United States imported 1,268,011 metric tons of bell peppers,
valued at $1.54 billion. Several states in the U.S. produce peppers;
however, according to a 2021 report by the USDA, the year-round demand
for fresh produce, including peppers, makes it impossible for the U.S.
to grow all of its own supply.

Current price: $0.45 and $1.34 per pound for bell peppers (source)

Fresh tomatoes

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the
U.S. is Mexico’s "top tomato export market, with 1.82 million metric
tons in exports," which was valued at $2.7 billion in 2023.

Current price: $1.34 and $2.69 per pound (source)

Tequila

As one of Mexico’s most prized spirits, tequila has a denomination
of origin, which means, by law, the blue agave-based spirit must be
produced in the Mexican state of Jalisco or in one of four
municipalities: Guanajato, Michoacán, Nayarit, and Tamaulipas. (There
are, however, “American agave spirits,” which are agave spirits
produced within the United States.) And Americans are certainly in
love with their tequila. According to the USDA, between 2014 and 2019,
tequila imports increased from $1.1 billion to $4.9 billion. In fact,
the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS) reports
that it now outsells American-made whiskey. And this doesn't even take
into account mezcal imports.

Current Price: Price for a bottle of Jose Cuervo at Walmart on Feb. 3:
$14.98 (source)

Other notable Mexican imports

The ERS data shows beef, pork, poultry, cucumbers, citrus fruits,
grapes, and malt beverages as other noteworthy imports that may soon
become more expensive.

Canada

The U.S. imports far fewer food products from its northern neighbor
but what it does import is by no means insignificant. The country is
America’s biggest supplier of cherry tomatoes, and according to
Trading Economics, the U.S. imported $6.47 billion in cereal, flour,
starch, and “milk preparations” in 2023. Here are a few other key
products to watch.

Grains

According to The Observatory of Economic Complexity, the primary
import partner of wheat to the U.S. is Canada. Its latest statistics
show that the U.S. imported $716 million in wheat from Canada.

Current price of wheat flour: $0.44 and $0.87 per pound. (Source)

Maple syrup

Canada is also America’s largest supplier of maple syrup. That's
little surprise when you learn that in 2023 the Canadian maple syrup
industry “accounted for approximately 71% of the total world maple
syrup production,” Canada’s agriculture website explained. The
website also noted that the U.S. is the largest export destination,
representing 61.2% of all exports.

Current price: $3.88 and $7.33 per pound (source)

Other notable Canadian imports

The ERS data also shows beef, pork, poultry, dairy products, biscuits
and wafers, berries, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, potatoes, cocoa,
coffee, and distilled spirits as notable imports from Canada.

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