Spain is proving to be a real immigration outlier in Europe. While countries across the continent turn more nativist on immigration matters—illustrated most clearly with Germany’s election last week propelling the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to become the Bundestag’s second largest party—Madrid has embraced a more open posture. “Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed-off, poor country,” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told parliament last year. “It’s as simple as that.” Shortly afterwards, the government said that, starting this May, it would grant legal residence and work permits in each of the next three years to about 300,000 immigrants lacking legal status. And as the AfD was campaigning on increasing returns, ending the “asylum paradise,” and narrowing eligibility for German citizenship, the Spanish government offered legal residence and work permits to up to 25,000 immigrants affected by October’s devastating floods in Valencia. Spain’s economic picture suggests the approach is bearing fruit. The Spanish economy grew much faster than similar European countries last year, and unemployment is at the lowest level since 2008—even as the labor force has ballooned. Spain topped The Economist’s list of best-performing economies in 2024, in a development it linked in part to immigration (although there are also other factors at work, including the country’s enviable tourism draw, its booming green energy sector, and smart government investments). Spain’s idiosyncrasies on immigration are not new. In the Migration Information Source, Claudia Finotelli and Sebastian Rinken recently described the country’s “pragmatic bet” that offering legal statuses and a range of rights and integration opportunities would allow immigrants to quickly settle and contribute to the economy. In part, the policy is a response to the demographic reality that Spain’s population will shrink without immigration, although several other countries facing similar outlooks—including Italy, Japan, and South Korea—have taken alternative approaches. Yet Spain might also remember that overindulging in immigration can bear costs, as it experienced amid the 2008-09 global economic crisis after a breakneck jump in its foreign-born population: rising from 2 percent of the population in 2000 to 12 percent as of 2007. If there is a contemporary parallel for Spain today, it might be found in Canada—at least until recently. The countries have similar population sizes (about 48 million and 40 million, respectively) and similar birth rates (1.2 births per woman and 1.3), and in 2023 Ottawa planned to admit up to 500,000 immigrants per year, citing labor market needs. Last year, however, Canada backtracked, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged that the population growth was straining housing and social services. As Daniel Hiebert explores in a new Transatlantic Council on Migration report published by MPI last week, Canada's experience suggests immigration is not always the miracle cure policymakers might hope. There are significant differences between Spain and Canada, and it would be foolish to suggest that Spain will necessarily follow Canada’s path. But the parallels are also clear, and Spain is reckoning with a housing crisis of its own, not all that different from Canada’s. For now, many analysts will keep their eyes fixed on Madrid to see if its immigration policy is truly an economic boon or simply a bubble that could pop. All the best, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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