February 28, 2025

This month’s newsletter features a report with recommendations for how an aggressively-implemented export control policy can support the new administration’s objectives on Iran. Tehran and its proxies were weakened in 2024, and there is now an opportunity to hinder their rearmament by targeting Iran’s production of drones and missiles. Doing so would strengthen the United States’ hand in possible diplomacy aimed at denying Iran a nuclear weapon. 

The newsletter also includes profiles of an individual and a company involved in the transfer of Iranian drones to Sudan, as well as news about Iran’s increased production of highly enriched uranium, possible Iranian exploration of simpler nuclear weapon designs, and a new medium-range ballistic missile. Additions to the Iran Watch library include new U.S. sanctions and policy documents related to the resumed “maximum pressure” campaign, statements about Iran at the G7 and FATF meetings, and a speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader denouncing the prospect of negotiations with the United States.

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PUBLICATIONS

A parade by Basij paramilitary forces featuring drones and missiles in Tehran in January. (Photo credit: Tasnim News Agency; graphic by the Wisconsin Project)

Two weeks after assuming office, President Donald Trump announced the resumption of the maximum pressure policy against Iran that his first administration pursued from 2018 to 2021. In 2025, Iran is much closer to producing a nuclear weapon. Yet in the crucial areas of missile and conventional weapon proliferation, as well as support to regional proxies, Iran is now vulnerable to renewed pressure. There is an opportunity to defang Tehran, if Mr. Trump chooses to effectively use the export control instruments available to him.

 

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

In January, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned suppliers of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), a combatant in the Sudanese civil war that has received arms from Iran.

Ahmed Abdalla

An official of Defense Industries System (DIS), the primary procurement arm of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF); has coordinated the acquisition of Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from an Azerbaijani defense company for shipment to Sudan.

Portex Trade Limited

A Hong Kong-based company operated by Ahmed Abdalla; has facilitated weapons procurement on behalf of the SAF; associated with an address identified by the U.S. Department of Commerce as posing a high risk of diversion.

 

IN THE NEWS

Iran’s representative at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in November. (Photo Credit: Dean Calma / IAEA)

February 26, 2025: The IAEA's latest reports found that Iran increased production of highly enriched uranium since December. In the past quarter, Iran's stock of uranium enriched to 60% purity grew by 92.5 kg to reach a total of 274.8 kg, which if enriched further is enough for six nuclear weapons, according to IAEA measures. Iran is now producing between 35 and 40 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% per month, up from between 6 to 9 kg a month prior to December.

February 3, 2025: Iran is directing a team of scientists and weapons engineers to explore a faster way to convert the country's stockpile of highly enriched uranium into a workable nuclear weapon, according to U.S. intelligence. This approach would rely on an older-style nuclear weapon design that could not be miniaturized to fit on a ballistic missile, rather than the more sophisticated design Iran received from Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan. This shortcut approach might cut the development timeline for a weapon down to a few months from the current U.S. and Israeli estimates of between one to two years.

February 2, 2025: Iran unveiled a new ballistic missile called the Etemad during a ceremony in Tehran attended by President Masoud Pezeshkian. The missile is 16 meters in length, 1.25 meters in diameter, and has a range of 1,700 km. It was developed by Iran's Defense Ministry.

 

FROM THE LIBRARY

The United States announced the resumption of its maximum pressure policy with a slew of new sanctions designations.

  • The White House released a national security memorandum outlining its policy goals with regard to Iran – February 4.
  • The Treasury Department sanctioned ship management companies and vessels associated with multiple countries as well as several Iranian energy companies for exporting oil on behalf of Iran’s military – February 6.
  • The Departments of State and Treasury sanctioned several ship management companies, vessels, brokers, and Iranian officials overseeing oil export terminals for facilitating the shipment and sale of Iranian crude oil and other energy products – February 24.
  • Additional U.S. sanctions targeted Hong Kong-based front companies involved in procuring drone components for Iran – February 26.


The G7 and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) both met and discussed Iran.

  • G7 foreign ministers issued a statement at the Munich Security Conference that condemned Iran for its military assistance to Russia – February 15.
  • FATF kept Iran on its “blacklist” of countries warranting countermeasures for terrorist financing, a decision that was welcomed by the United States – February 21.


Iran’s Supreme Leader rejected negotiations with the United States, seemingly countermanding other Iranian officials who had expressed openness to talks – February 7.


Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. 


Copyright © 2025 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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