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Daily News Brief

February 27, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the approaching expiration of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, as well as...

  • Trump’s threat of 25 percent tariffs on EU goods

  • Keir Starmer’s White House visit

  • BP’s reversal on renewable energy investment

Top of the Agenda

Israel and Hamas conducted another exchange of hostages and prisoners as phase one of their truce nears its end. Hamas released the bodies of four Israeli hostages yesterday while Israel by this morning had released more than six hundred Palestinian prisoners. After accusations of violations on both sides, the first phase of the fragile truce is set to expire this weekend—while a potential second phase remains uncertain.

 

Where talks stand. The January cease-fire deal said negotiations on the second phase were slated to have wrapped up by last Sunday, but formal talks have yet to start in earnest. 

  • Phase two was envisioned to include additional releases of Hamas-held hostages and Israeli-held prisoners, as well as Israeli withdrawals from more zones of Gaza. That includes an area called the Philadelphi Corridor, though an unnamed Israeli official told news outlets today that Israel plans to stay there.
  • Hamas said today it was ready for talks on phase two. Israel, for its part, seeks an open-ended extension of phase one rather than a new phase that aims to lay the foundation for a more lasting settlement, unnamed sources close to the negotiations told the Financial Times.
  • The truce agreement allows for phase one to be extended if phase two negotiations have begun. 

The broader context. Decisions at the cease-fire’s crossroads involve both humanitarian and political considerations. 

  • A restart to the war would end a six-week period in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been able to return to their homes and increased aid has flowed into Gaza.
  • Netanyahu is seeking domestic political support to pass a budget. Some of his coalition members said they would leave his government if he agreed to end the war.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump campaigned saying he would end the war in Gaza and pushed hard to secure the truce deal. But in recent weeks he has proposed a takeover of Gaza that Palestinians and Arab countries have rejected, saying it would violate international law and work against the prospect of sustainable peace. 
“[Trump] has already claimed victory and will not want the deal’s failure to tarnish his image as a peacemaker. Resuming the war in Gaza would also make it nearly impossible for Trump to broker Israeli-Saudi normalization, as the Saudis have refused to move toward a peace agreement with Israel as long as it remains in Gaza,” the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Dennis Ross and David Makovsky write for Foreign Affairs.

Trump Is Making Taiwan More Vulnerable

While Taiwan appears to have flown under the radar during Trump’s first month in office, Trump’s territorial ambitions, tariff proposals, and foreign aid freeze have already made the island more vulnerable, CFR expert David Sacks writes for Asia Unbound.

Flags of Taiwan and U.S. are placed for a meeting between U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce speaks and with Su Chia-chyuan, President of the Legislative Yuan in Taipei, Taiwan March 27, 2018. (Tyrone Siu/Reuters)

Across the Globe

Trump talks tariffs, Taiwan. At his first cabinet meeting yesterday, Trump said he would “soon” announce 25 percent tariffs on goods from the European Union (EU), including “cars and all other things.” Asked if the United States would ever allow China to take Taiwan by force, Trump declined to comment. Washington has traditionally shied away from making an explicit security guarantee—instead preferring to maintain a policy of strategic ambiguity—though Joe Biden said multiple times while president that he would intervene to protect Taiwan.  

 

Starmer in Washington. United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer is discussing economic and security relations with Trump at the White House today. Starmer has said he would be willing to send UK troops to Ukraine to act as potential postwar peacekeepers, but that U.S. backup support is also needed. While Trump has voiced his approval of the idea, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pushed back against it yesterday, saying the presence of European troops would “further fuel the conflict.” 

 

BP’s renewables reversal. The oil and gas giant will slash its spending on renewables by some 70 percent. Its CEO said the transition to renewable energy over the past five years had been slower than expected following the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic, volatile energy markets, and other factors. Some investors had been pushing for a strategy shift in search of higher profits. Rivals Shell and Equinor have also recently scaled back their plans for green investments. 

 

Iran accelerates uranium enrichment. Iran’s stockpile of uranium that is enriched up to 60 percent—considered near weapons-grade level—grew by more than half between October and February, the UN nuclear watchdog said in a report seen by the Associated Press. Trump has ordered new sanctions on Iran but also said he’d like to strike a nuclear deal. Iran’s foreign minister said Tuesday that the country does not negotiate “under pressure, threat or sanctions.” 

 

U.S.-Russia talks in Turkey. Envoys from the two sides are meeting in Istanbul today to address disputes over the functioning of their embassies in Washington and Moscow. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said before the meeting that Ukraine is not on the agenda, describing the talks as a test of whether “Russia is really willing to engage in good faith.”

 

Chevron on notice in Venezuela. Trump said he plans to end a license allowing the U.S. energy company to operate in Venezuela, saying the country has poor electoral conditions and has moved too slowly on accepting migrants. The Biden administration issued the license in late 2022 amid high gas prices and in an effort to coax Caracas toward democratic reforms. Chevron accounts for approximately a fifth of Venezuela’s oil production.

 

India plans solar incentives. The government is putting together a $1 billion subsidy plan to boost domestic solar manufacturing and reduce dependence on China, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. The policies would aim to replicate the success of India’s cell phone manufacturing sector. A Ministry of New and Renewable Energy spokesperson said New Delhi is studying how to incentivize local manufacturing of ingots, wafers, and polysilicon but that no proposal had been formally approved.


Romanian candidate charged. Prosecutors announced criminal charges against far-right politician Cǎlin Georgescu, who won a first-round presidential election last November that was then annulled after allegations of Russian meddling. The charges include incitement against the constitutional order, spreading false information, and establishing a fascist organization. Georgescu’s lawyer did not immediately comment, and it was not clear how the legal proceedings will affect his plans to run in the election do-over in May.

What Are Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities?

Western analysts say Iran has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should the country’s leaders decide to do so. This article by Jonathan Masters and CFR’s Will Merrow unpacks the implications of Iran’s nuclear activities.

A view of the water nuclear reactor at Arak, Iran, December 2019. (West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

The Day Ahead

  • Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, holds a snap election. 

     

  • A new U.S. ban on providing petroleum services to Russia takes force.

     

  • French President Emmanuel Macron visits Portugal.

What Trade Is Strategic?

Trump, his advisors, and Congress have different ideas of what products and markets are strategic. The longer the list of strategic goods, the more difficult it is to craft a viable strategy for achieving economic objectives, CFR expert Jonathan E. Hillman writes.

A model of the WJ-700 reconnaissance drone is displayed at the China, International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, or Airshow China, in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, China, November 14, 2024. (Tingshu Wang/Reuters)
 

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