Here is some raw data and a brief interpretation of the magic we all created in 2024
In the 2024 Kansas state legislative elections, the Republican Party gained a net total of five seats across both chambers of the Kansas State Legislature. Here's the breakdown:
- **Kansas House of Representatives**: Republicans gained three seats, increasing their majority from 85-40 to 88-37.
- **Kansas State Senate**: Republicans gained two seats, increasing their majority from 29-11 to 31-9.
Thus, a total of **five state legislature seats flipped** to the Republican Party in Kansas in 2024. This information is based on the outcome of the elections held on November 5, 2024, where Republicans not only maintained but slightly expanded their supermajority in both the House and Senate. Democrats, despite efforts led by Governor Laura Kelly to break the GOP supermajority, did not achieve net gains sufficient to alter the veto-proof status of the Republican majorities.
To compare the five state legislature seats flipped in Kansas in 2024 to past years, we’ll look at the net seat changes in the Kansas State Legislature (House and Senate combined) in previous election cycles. The Kansas Legislature consists of 125 House seats and 40 Senate seats, totaling 165 seats. Historically, Republicans have maintained strong majorities, often supermajorities, in both chambers, with shifts typically being modest due to the state’s conservative leanings and incumbency advantages. Below is an analysis based on available historical election data:
### 2024: +5 Republican Seats
- **House**: Republicans gained 3 seats (85-40 to 88-37).
- **Senate**: Republicans gained 2 seats (29-11 to 31-9).
- **Total Net Change**: 5 seats flipped to Republicans.
- **Context**: This was a year when all 165 seats were up for election (House every 2 years, Senate every 4 years). The GOP expanded its supermajority despite Democratic efforts to break it, fueled by low primary competitiveness and high incumbent retention.
### 2022: Minimal Change
- **House**: Republicans maintained a supermajority with no significant net change reported (85-40 before and after).
- **Senate**: Not up for election (last elected in 2020).
- **Total Net Change**: Approximately 0 (no major flips documented).
- **Context**: A midterm year with only the House contested. The partisan balance held steady, reflecting a stable political environment post-2020 redistricting and the rejection of an abortion ballot measure that didn’t translate into legislative gains for Democrats.
### 2020: +1 Republican Seat
- **House**: Republicans gained 1 seat (84-41 to 85-40).
- **Senate**: No net change (29-11 remained).
- **Total Net Change**: 1 seat flipped to Republicans.
- **Context**: All seats were up. Republicans slightly increased their dominance in a presidential election year, despite a competitive national environment. The Senate saw no shift, indicating entrenched partisan lines.
### 2018: +1 Democratic Seat
- **House**: Democrats gained 1 seat (85-40 to 84-41).
- **Senate**: Not up for election (last elected in 2016).
- **Total Net Change**: 1 seat flipped to Democrats.
- **Context**: A midterm year under a Republican trifecta (pre-Governor Kelly). Democrats made a modest gain amid a national blue wave, but the GOP supermajority persisted.
### 2016: +3 Republican Seats
- **House**: Republicans gained 2 seats (83-42 to 85-40).
- **Senate**: Republicans gained 1 seat (31-9 to 32-8).
- **Total Net Change**: 3 seats flipped to Republicans.
- **Context**: All seats were up in a presidential year. Republicans bolstered their supermajority, aligning with a strong GOP performance nationally under Trump’s first election.
### Trends and Comparison
- **2024 vs. Recent Years**: The +5 Republican gain in 2024 is the largest net shift since at least 2016, exceeding the +3 in 2016 and dwarfing the minimal changes in 2020 (+1), 2018 (+1 Democratic), and 2022 (~0). It’s notable for occurring in a year when all seats were contested, suggesting a stronger Republican consolidation than in recent cycles.
- **Historical Pattern**: Kansas has seen small swings (0 to 3 seats) in most elections over the past decade, with 2024’s +5 being an outlier. Republicans have consistently held supermajorities (two-thirds or more in both chambers) since at least 1992, with net gains typically reinforcing this dominance rather than flipping control.
- **Factors in 2024**: Record-low primary competitiveness (41 contested primaries vs. historical averages of 59.7 for Republicans and 15 for Democrats) and high incumbent retirements (30, above the average of 22) may have favored Republicans, who fielded more candidates (178 vs. 140 Democrats) and capitalized on open seats.
### Conclusion
The 2024 flip of five seats to Republicans in Kansas is a significant increase compared to recent election cycles, where net changes rarely exceeded three seats. It marks the most substantial Republican gain since at least 2016 (+3), reinforcing their supermajority in a state with a long history of GOP dominance. Democrats have struggled to convert issue-based momentum (e.g., abortion rights in 2022) into legislative seats, making 2024 a standout year for Republican success relative to the past decade.
To determine the states with the largest Republican gains in state legislatures where Republicans already had a majority (but not necessarily a supermajority) in both chambers going into the 2024 election, we need to:
1. Identify states where Republicans held majorities in both the House and Senate (or equivalent chambers) before the 2024 election.
2. Calculate the net Republican seat gains in those states from the 2024 election results, based on the net flip data provided earlier.
3. Rank them to find the largest Republican gains.
A "majority" here means Republicans held more than half the seats in each chamber (e.g., 51+ in a 100-seat House, 26+ in a 50-seat Senate), while a "supermajority" typically means a veto-proof threshold (often two-thirds, though this varies by state). I’ll include states with majorities in both chambers, even if one or both fell short of a supermajority pre-2024, and focus on the 44 states that held legislative elections on November 5, 2024. The net flips are as of February 21, 2025, and may be provisional due to recounts or late certifications. The data comes from my previous state-by-state breakdown.
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### Step 1: States with Pre-2024 Republican Majorities in Both Chambers
Here are the states that entered the 2024 election with Republican majorities in both their House and Senate (or equivalent), based on pre-2024 compositions (e.g., post-2022 election results adjusted for special elections):
- **Arizona**: House (31-29), Senate (16-14) – Slim majorities.
- **Arkansas**: House (82-18), Senate (29-6) – Supermajorities.
- **Florida**: House (84-35), Senate (28-12) – Supermajorities.
- **Georgia**: House (101-79), Senate (33-23) – Majorities (House supermajority, Senate not).
- **Idaho**: House (59-11), Senate (28-7) – Supermajorities.
- **Indiana**: House (70-30), Senate (40-10) – Supermajorities.
- **Iowa**: House (64-36), Senate (34-16) – House supermajority, Senate majority (34/50, supermajority gained in 2024).
- **Kansas**: House (85-40), Senate (29-11) – Supermajorities.
- **Kentucky**: House (80-20), Senate (31-7) – Supermajorities.
- **Michigan**: House (56-54 Democratic), Senate (20-18) – Only Senate majority; House Democratic.
- **Missouri**: House (111-52), Senate (24-10) – Supermajorities.
- **Montana**: House (68-32), Senate (34-16) – Supermajorities.
- **New Hampshire**: House (201-198), Senate (14-10) – Slim majorities.
- **North Dakota**: House (82-12), Senate (43-4) – Supermajorities.
- **Ohio**: House (67-32), Senate (26-7) – Supermajorities.
- **Oklahoma**: House (81-20), Senate (40-8) – Supermajorities.
- **Pennsylvania**: House (101-102 Democratic), Senate (28-22) – Only Senate majority; House Democratic.
- **South Carolina**: House (88-36), Senate (30-16) – House supermajority, Senate majority (supermajority gained in 2024).
- **South Dakota**: House (63-7), Senate (31-4) – Supermajorities.
- **Tennessee**: House (75-24), Senate (27-6) – Supermajorities.
- **Texas**: House (86-64), Senate (19-12) – Majorities (House supermajority, Senate not).
- **Utah**: House (61-14), Senate (23-6) – Supermajorities.
- **West Virginia**: House (89-11), Senate (31-3) – Supermajorities.
- **Wisconsin**: House (64-35), Senate (22-11) – Majorities (both supermajorities).
- **Wyoming**: House (57-5), Senate (29-2) – Supermajorities.
**Notes**:
- States like Michigan and Pennsylvania had Republican Senate majorities but Democratic House majorities pre-2024, so they’re excluded from this list (both chambers must be Republican-controlled).
- States with no 2024 elections (e.g., Alabama, Louisiana) are excluded.
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### Step 2: Net Republican Gains in 2024 for These States
From the earlier state-by-state net flip data, here are the net Republican gains (or losses) for states with pre-2024 Republican majorities in both chambers:
- **Arizona**: Data incomplete (Slim majorities held; exact net flips uncalled, but no significant gain reported).
- **Arkansas**: 0 (No net change).
- **Florida**: 0 (No net change).
- **Georgia**: 0 (No net change).
- **Idaho**: +3 Republican (Expanded supermajorities).
- **Indiana**: 0 (No net change).
- **Iowa**: +5 Republican (Gained Senate supermajority, padded House).
- **Kansas**: +5 Republican (Padded supermajorities).
- **Kentucky**: 0 (No net change).
- **Missouri**: 0 (No net change).
- **Montana**: -12 Republican (+12 Democrat; broke supermajorities).
- **New Hampshire**: +25 Republican (Gained dozens in House, Senate supermajority).
- **North Dakota**: 0 (No net change).
- **Ohio**: -2 Republican (+2 Democrat; broke Senate supermajority).
- **Oklahoma**: 0 (No net change).
- **South Carolina**: +5 Republican (Gained Senate supermajority).
- **South Dakota**: 0 (No net change).
- **Tennessee**: 0 (No net change).
- **Texas**: +2 Republican (Flipped seats from retiring Democrats).
- **Utah**: 0 (No net change).
- **West Virginia**: 0 (No net change).
- **Wisconsin**: -14 Republican (+14 Democrat; reduced majorities).
- **Wyoming**: 0 (No net change).
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### Step 3: Ranking Largest Republican Gains
Here are the states with the largest net Republican gains in 2024, where Republicans had majorities in both chambers pre-2024, ordered from highest to lowest:
1. **New Hampshire**: +25 Republican
- House went from 201-198 to a larger majority (dozens more seats), Senate gained a supermajority (14-10 to stronger control). Largest Republican gain by far.
2. **Iowa**: +5 Republican
- Senate gained a supermajority (34-16 to stronger), House padded (64-36 to more).
3. **Kansas**: +5 Republican
- Both chambers padded supermajorities (House 85-40, Senate 29-11 to stronger margins).
4. **South Carolina**: +5 Republican
- Senate gained a supermajority (30-16 to 31+), House padded (88-36 to more).
5. **Idaho**: +3 Republican
- Expanded supermajorities in both chambers.
6. **Texas**: +2 Republican
- Flipped seats in the House; Senate majority maintained.
**Other Notable Changes (Losses)**:
- **Montana**: -12 Republican (+12 Democrat; broke supermajorities).
- **Wisconsin**: -14 Republican (+14 Democrat; reduced majorities).
- **Ohio**: -2 Republican (+2 Democrat; broke Senate supermajority).
**No Change or Minimal**: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (all at +/-0).
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### Conclusion: Largest Republican Gains
- **New Hampshire** had the largest Republican gain at +25 seats, significantly outpacing all others. Republicans entered with slim majorities (House 201-198, Senate 14-10) and expanded them dramatically, including a Senate supermajority.
- **Kansas**, with +5 Republican, ties for second place with Iowa and South Carolina, but is far below New Hampshire.
Recognizing that with a finite number of legislative seats in total, it becomes exponentially more difficult to gain even a single seat in a Republican dominated body. That said, Kansas’s +5 Republican win rate total is notable as we got beat out by New Hampshire and tied for second with Iowa and South Carolina. And that’s good company tight there!
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