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Daily News Brief

February 26, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering new outlines of Syria’s political transition emerging in Damascus, as well as...

  • Mineral talks between Washington and Kyiv

  • The UK’s plan to hike military spending

  • South Korea’s increased birth rate

Top of the Agenda

Syrians called for inclusive governance, free expression, and an end to Israeli military presence in the country at a national dialogue yesterday. Hundreds gathered at the Damascus conference, where interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa spoke, in a step toward rebuilding the country after fourteen years of civil war. Working groups met to discuss topics like a new constitution, transitional justice, and Syria’s economic model. As al-Sharaa attempts to shift his role from that of a victorious rebel commander to statesman, international donors are watching to see if his promise of inclusivity bears

out—while relations with Israel emerge as an early challenge.

 

Key unknowns. A caretaker government is expected to take power on Saturday, but its composition has not yet been announced. The conference also underscored other uncertainties about Syria’s transition. 

  • Participants called for international sanctions relief in their joint statement. While the European Union announced it would lift some broad sanctions this week, U.S. economic steps have been more measured. Amid war and embargos, Syria’s economy has shrunk by some 85 percent since 2011, according to World Bank estimates.
  • Five of the seven members of the conference organizing committee were in or close to al-Sharaa’s rebel group, and no committee members came from the Druze or Alawite minorities, Reuters reported. Religious minorities and women did attend the conference.
  • Though organizers said Kurdish representatives were invited, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast of the country were not; the group had rejected a call to disarm and become part of a unified army. A group of mostly Kurdish political parties said that the conference “did not reflect the reality of the Syrian components.” 

Syria-Israel tensions. Syria’s nation-building efforts come amid Israeli demands for a total demilitarization of its south. After Syria’s rebels ousted former leader Bashar al-Assad in December, Israeli forces moved into a UN-monitored demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights, saying they aimed to protect Israelis plus the Syrian Druze religious minority. 


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the move temporary at the time. But on Sunday, Netanyahu said that Israeli forces would stay indefinitely and would not allow Syrian forces “south of Damascus.” Syrian participants in Tuesday’s conference issued a statement against the Israeli incursions; hours later, Israel carried out strikes on targets in the south and outside Damascus. Syria’s interim leadership has dissolved military factions and has not yet formed a national army.

“If [Syria’s new leaders] replace Assad’s autocratic regime with one that is also exclusionary and repressive, they will be just as vulnerable to overthrow as he was. But if they are wise enough to pursue a more democratic course, Syria’s political transition could become a turning point for a region where popular demands for responsive governance have been ignored for far too long,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Marwan Muasher writes for Foreign Affairs.

Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine

CFR experts Liana Fix and Charles A. Kupchan sat down with CFR’s James M. Lindsay to unpack Trump’s evolving policy toward Ukraine on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion. You can hear their discussion on The President’s Inbox.

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Podcast: The President's Inbox

Across the Globe

Starmer’s defense spending pledge. The United Kingdom (UK) will spend 2.5 percent of its national income on defense by 2027, up from 2.3 percent at present, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday. Part of the money would come from cuts to international aid, he added. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the announcement “a strong step from an enduring partner.”

 

Convergence on U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal. Washington and Kyiv have agreed on the terms of a deal regarding Ukraine’s mineral wealth, multiple outlets reported. According to a version dated February 25 and seen by the Financial Times, the deal would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 percent of proceeds from “future monetization” of state-owned resources, including oil and gas. The fund would invest in projects in Ukraine; the U.S. stake in it remained unclear.

 

WHO flags mysterious DRC disease. An unknown illness has killed fifty-three people in the northwestern Democratic Republic of Congo, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a bulletin. Individuals reported fever, vomiting, body aches, and fatigue; the WHO said the disease has a fatality rate of 12.3 percent. Health officials called for high-level intervention to contain the disease in an area with weak health infrastructure.

 

Detainees freed in Saudi Arabia. Authorities have freed dozens of people in recent weeks who activists identified as political prisoners. They include a teacher and PhD student who were sentenced over social media posts, advocacy groups said. A Human Rights Watch researcher said that while campaigns for their release may have played a role, other “political calculations” may also be at play. The government’s information office did not comment. 

 

Judge blocks Trump refugee ban. A federal judge temporarily blocked U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order suspending refugee admissions, saying it overstepped congressional authority. The move effectively requires the administration to restart admissions and funding to refugee assistance programs. The White House and Justice Department did not immediately comment.

 

Hamas-Israel swap announced. Hamas will release four bodies of Israeli hostages, and Israel will release around six hundred Palestinian prisoners, Hamas and an unnamed Israeli official said. Israel had delayed the prisoner release, which was originally scheduled for last Saturday, saying Hamas violated the truce agreement and mistreated hostages. The first phase of the cease-fire deal is due to expire this weekend. 

 

South Korea’s baby bump. The country’s fertility rate rose to 0.75 children per woman last year for the first time in almost a decade, the government reported. Most other Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation countries have fertility rates well below the replacement level of 2.1, but South Korea’s is one of the lowest in the world. Its government for years has tried to incentivize parenthood through new policies on parental leave, childcare, and housing.


Chile probes massive blackout. The failure of a transmission line in Chile plunged some 90 percent of the country into a power outage yesterday afternoon. By late last night, power had been restored to around half of the affected households, the president said; authorities are investigating what happened but ruled out an attack on the grid. While backup generators kept hospitals and government offices functioning, “the electric system did not operate the way it should have,” Chile’s national grid operator president said.

Economic Security Lessons From Asia

Asian countries’ approaches to economic security and resilience highlight significant gaps with recent U.S. policy as well as valuable lessons for the United States, the LeidenAsiaCentre’s Matt Ferchen writes for RealEcon.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi at the State Department in Washington, U.S., January 21, 2025. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)

The Day Ahead

  • The Development Bank of South Africa and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank begin hosting a summit on sustainable finance in Cape Town.

     

  • Trump holds his first cabinet meeting in Washington.

     

  • Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) defense ministers meet in Malaysia.

A “Defining Moment” for Global Health Funding

Trump’s executive orders have jeopardized global health programs that rely on the United States, particularly in HIV/AIDS prevention and malaria control and research, CFR’s Allison Krugman writes for Think Global Health.

USAID signage is covered at the agency's headquarters, in Washington, DC, on February 7, 2025. (Nathan Howard/Reuters)
 

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