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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1209
02/25/2025
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1) Welcome to the Biggest Tax Increase in American History

Here is our analysis of what happens if the Democrats (and pro-SALT Republicans) have their way and the tax cut is not extended (with some of the data from the Brookings Institution ([link removed]) ):
* Millions more Americans will have to itemize deductions: If TCJA expires, the standard deduction for a married couple will be cut to $16,525 in 2026, versus $30,725 if the tax cut remains. This means about four times as many Americans will have to itemize deductions making tax preparation much more complicated.
* Individual income tax rates rise: TCJA lowered marginal income tax rates for all tax filers. The highest tax rate will rise from 37% to 39.6%.
* State and local tax (SALT) deduction for the very rich: TCJA imposed a $10,000 cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT). If this provision of the TCJA expires, all state and local taxes will be deductible, primarily benefiting rich people in high-tax states.
* Child Tax Credit cut in half: If TCJA is repealed the tax credit for each child under 17 falls from $2,000 to $1,000, penalizing families with kids.
* Small business income tax rises by 25%: TCJA provided a 20% deduction for most small businesses. If the bill is not extended, the tax on qualified small businesses rises by that amount.
* Alternative minimum tax (AMT) hits millions more families: Failure to extend the TCJA would mean roughly seven million more families hit with the unfair AMT.
* Twice as many families hit with death taxes: The TCJA doubled the estate tax exemption. If this provision expires the exemption in 2026 will be cut from $28.6 million to $14.3 million for married couples.

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2) Senate Liberals Trash Imaginary Tax Breaks for Billionaires

Progressives have a record low approval rating in recent polls, and maybe it's because they have nothing to say. The Senate passed a budget last week with no tax cuts at all, yet Progressives reflexively trashed that package as "tax cuts for the rich." Maybe they should start reading the HOTLINE so they won't be so misinformed.
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Senator Thune commented yesterday:

Mr. President, early Friday morning the Senate passed a budget resolution to lay the groundwork for border, energy, and national security legislation...

The Democrat leader seemed to think to the very end that this budget resolution had something to do with tax cuts for billionaires - even though it has absolutely and exactly nothing to do with tax cuts of any kind.
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We wish they HAD put the tax cut in the bill, especially since they got pilloried for tax cuts for the rich anyway!
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3) Germany Finally Moves Right

In Sunday’s elections in Germany, voters elected a Christian Democratic Party (CDU) that bears little resemblance to the party that Angela Merkel ran. Thank God. Under Merkel, Germany saw welfare spending balloon, the economy stagnate, and her green energy obsession deindustrialized Germany.

The new CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz is cut from a different cloth. He frequently quotes his role model Ronald Reagan saying "The most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government, and I'm here to help.'"

Merz wants to reduce Germany's combined corporate tax rate from 30% to below 25%, bringing it close to the OECD average of 24%. He is promoting a free trade reciprocal tax rate of zero with the U.S. He also wants fewer regulations and a sensible energy policy that will reduce, as we’ve noted on these pages in recent weeks, among the highest electricity prices in the world:
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Politico put it well: "Never in history has a German head of government had more affinity for the United States."
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"We as Europe could offer to go to zero [tariffs] for all US goods, and then say we would expect the same the other way around," said Jens Spahn, a senior member of the center-right Christian Democratic Union party.
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4) One Big Benefit of Immigration in One Picture

Once Trump deports the criminal aliens and other troublemakers, we will need to have more legal immigrant workers to fill our labor force needs, given the baby boomers' retirement. One reason LEGAL immigration is so beneficial is the age-profile of the immigrants.

As the population pyramid below shows, the age profile of the foreign born is that they are mostly in their most productive working years. Most immigrants arrive in their 20s or 30s. Few arrive as young children and fewer still as retirees.
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Immigrants are especially beneficial to the Social Security system because they pay the tax, but they rarely have parents here who collect benefits. The Social Security actuaries score this as a more than $1 trillion net benefit to the trust fund.
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5) Is Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson the Least Popular Politician in Modern Times?

If he isn't the most unpopular mayor ever, he has a good chance to get there. A new public poll finds that he enjoys a 6.6% approval rate:
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The city's credit rating is just one notch above junk status, and Johnson is pushing hard to issue another $830 million in bonds to paper over a gaping budget deficit. We are morbidly curious how bad things can get in our once-favorite city. Johnson is still a couple months shy of the halfway point of his term.
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This is what happens when you elect a progressive anti-business tool of the teacher unions.

Ditka for Mayor!
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6) For Those Suffering Musk-Derangement Syndrome

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