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HOW TRUMP’S PLAN TO EXPEL GAZANS IS UNITING ARAB STATES – AND
THREATENING ISRAEL  
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Zvi Bar'el
February 6, 2025
Haaretz
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_ Trump's plan to relocate two million Palestinians ensnares the
leaders of all Middle Eastern countries, not just Egypt and Jordan, in
a dilemma fraught with threats. In doing so, he fostered a new sense
of Arab unity _

A Jordanian soldier loads humanitarian aid boxes, destined for the
Gaza Strip, onto a Jordanian military plane in the Zarqa governorate
northeast of Amman, on Tuesday, Feb. 04., (Photo credit: Khalil
Mazraawi/Agence France-Presse (AFP) // Haaretz)

 

With a few smug and self-assured words, U.S. President Donald Trump
thrust the Israeli-Palestinian conflict back into the heart of
international discourse, pulling the Gaza Strip out of the
"humanitarian disaster" category and turning it into a symbol of
national "steadfastness."

In doing so,
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fostered a new sense of Arab unity – not just to defend the
Palestinians, but primarily to shield Arab states from the conflict
spilling over into their territory.

 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, gives his opening
statement before the start of a meeting with Secretary of Defense Pete
Hegseth at the Pentagon, on Wednesday.  )Photo credit: Manuel Balce
Ceneta/AP  //  Haaretz)
Until now, Middle Eastern countries have been classified by their
geopolitical alignment – the moderate Sunni axis, the pro-U.S. axis,
the Shiite axis or the so-called "Iranian axis of evil." On Tuesday,
Trump introduced a new one: the axis of fear.

Less than an hour after Trump unveiled his transfer plan, in which he
"revealed" that Saudi Arabia wasn't demanding the establishment of a
Palestinian state, the Saudi Foreign Ministry, on behalf of Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, swiftly issued a sharp and unequivocal
response.

It stated that diplomatic relations with Israel, or a normalization
deal, wouldn't happen without the establishment of a Palestinian
state. According to the statement, this is a firm position that
wouldn't be open to negotiation.

Shortly afterward, a flurry of phone calls took place between regional
leaders. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas flew to meet with
Jordan's King Abdullah, who sees the plan as an existential threat to
his country, to coordinate their positions ahead of the king's meeting
with Trump the following Tuesday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Trump's plan to expel
some two million Palestinians is "unacceptable." In the coming days,
an Arab summit is expected to convene to once again take a firm stand
against what is being called the "forced migration" of Gazans.

It'll also set the stage for a potential Arab-American summit, which,
according to Arab sources, could take place as early as the end of the
month in Saudi Arabia with Trump's participation.

 
Jabalya in the northern Gaza Strip on Wednesday.  (Photo credit:
Omar al-Qattaa/Agence France-Presse (AFP)  //  Haaretz)
 

Trump's plan assumes that the Palestinians, without being consulted,
will eagerly embrace the opportunity of a lifetime – offered a villa
with a golf course and swimming pool in the Sinai desert. At the same
time, it ensnares the leaders of neighboring countries, not just Egypt
and Jordan, in a dilemma fraught with threats.

The permanent resettlement of approximately two million Palestinian
refugees means transferring the so-called Palestinian issue to their
territories, along with the national, security, economic and social
implications that come with it – both at the state level and at the
broader Arab level.

For Jordan, where two-thirds of citizens are Palestinians, the
migration of hundreds of thousands of additional Palestinians
represents a demographic earthquake that could trigger an internal
upheaval, potentially ending the reign of the Hashemite dynasty.

The kingdom still vividly recalls the events of Black September in
1970 – the bloody conflict that threatened King Hussein's rule and
life. Only after a fierce struggle was the king able to expel the PLO
from Jordan.

Even now, although Palestinians from the West Bank hold Jordanian
citizenship and "Jordanian Palestinians" – those born and raised in
Jordan – occupy some of the highest positions, the Palestinian
community in the kingdom is still regarded as a "suspicious element."
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Jordan does permit the political activities of the Muslim Brotherhood,
whose representatives are also members of parliament, but it bans
Hamas and doesn't allow even family visits for its leaders .

The resettlement of hundreds of thousands of Gazans - many with ties
to - Hamas, could destabilize Jordan and lead to conflict with Israel,
resembling the situation in the 1960s and 1970s. It could also mirror
Lebanon, where the second wave of Palestinian refugees in the 1970s
created the ongoing threat known as "Fatahland."

This threat didn't end with the First Lebanon War, and large amounts
of weaponry in the Palestinian refugee camps – from which sporadic
attacks against Israel also emerged – are worth remembering. It's
also worth noting that Hamas established training bases in Lebanon and
one of its strongest political offices. Is this the direction Trump
envisions when he proposes Jordan as a refuge for Gazans?

Egypt could face a similar development, where its long and ongoing war
against Islamist terrorist groups and the Muslim Brotherhood will be
further complicated by the arrival of thousands of Hamas members in
Sinai – an area where controlling and monitoring the flow of weapons
and ammunition is an almost impossible challenge.

The economic burden Egypt would face would be a secondary concern,
compared to the direct connection likely to form between Hamas and the
Muslim Brotherhood. This partnership could lead to the creation of a
skilled and experienced military wing that would pose a threat to both
Egypt and Israel. Like Jordan, Egypt could risk becoming a state of
conflict.

 
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, right, meets with
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, in Cairo, Egypt, on
Wednesday.Credit: Amr Nabil/AP
When Trump's planned 'Middle Eastern Riviera
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and the manufacturing facilities to be built in Gaza rise before the
eyes of hundreds of thousands of Gazans, whose homes will be replaced
by vacation sites, they'll have to live under this very real threat.
It seems that this rosy dream will quickly turn into a nightmare.

The effort to thwart the threat posed by the transfer of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict to their territories, however, places
Jordan and Egypt under Trump's looming gaze, as he presents them with
an economic ultimatum. Egypt and Jordan, key players in the
pro-Western and especially pro-U.S. axis, heavily depend on U.S.
economic aid, which goes beyond just the nominal amounts they receive.

This steady aid also functions as political support, serving as a
crucial guarantee for obtaining loans from international financial
institutions like the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, it
secures favorable trade agreements, military assistance and the
protection the United States extends to both countries.

However, these countries also receive generous aid from the Gulf
states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the
past year alone, both nations invested tens of billions of dollars in
Egypt and millions in Jordan.

Theoretically, if Saudi Arabia chooses to thwart Trump's threat and
protect its "sisters" from his pressure, it could step in financially,
effectively replacing the United States at a significantly lower cost
than what would be required to build Trump's envisioned so-called
riviera in Gaza.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia announced two weeks ago that it plans to invest
approximately $600 billion in the United States over the next four
years of Trump's presidency. Trump, confident he can extract even a
trillion dollars from Crown Prince Salman, will need to evaluate who
holds the greater economic leverage.

None of these countries, however, wants a confrontation with the
United States, just as Trump is unlikely to forgo the economic
benefits Saudi Arabia offers him, nor the normalization he seeks
between the Saudis and Israel.

 
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the
White House on Tuesday.  (Photo credit: Andrew
Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse (AFP)  //  Haaretz)
Given Saudi Arabia's current resolute stance, the overwhelming
opposition from the "hosting countries" and other regional states, as
well as the criticism emerging from Congress regarding the transfer
plan, Trump will likely have to adopt a new set of priorities.

Even the normalization may have to wait until a sufficiently complex
solution for Palestinian statehood is found – one that satisfies
Saudi Arabia while maintaining the integrity of Netanyahu's coalition.

It may be best for now not to hold one's breath waiting for the
statement about the annexation of the West Bank to Israel, which Trump
promised to make within four weeks.

The failure to annex in the previous round served the UAE as
justification for signing the peace agreement with Israel, and this
can be repeated with Saudi Arabia, along with an American, not
Israeli, promise of the Palestinians' right to a state.

Until then, it's wise to adopt the measured approach of the Qatari
prime minister, who refrained from commenting on the Gaza transfer
plan and suggested focusing on completing the hostage deal first.

* Trump Gaza Plan
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* Gaza colonialization
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* Gaza
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* gaza strip
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* Reconstruction of Gaza
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* ethnic cleansing
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* Gaza Riviera
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* Palestine
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* Palestinians
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* Israel
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* Arab states
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* Middle East
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* Donald Trump
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* Benjamin Netanyahu
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* Genocide
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* war crimes
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* Ceasefire
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* Israel-Gaza War
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* Oct. 7
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* Hostages
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* Hamas
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* Israel-Palestine
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* boots-on-the-ground
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